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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1712528
全球铝市场 - 2025-2032Global Aluminum Market - 2025-2032 |
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2024 年全球铝市场规模达到 2,318.2 亿美元,预计到 2032 年将达到 4,016 亿美元,在 2025-2032 年预测期内的复合年增长率为 7.11%。
铝是地壳中第二丰富的金属元素,由于其重量轻、耐腐蚀和耐用的特性,已成为各行各业不可或缺的一部分。 2023年,全球原铝产量预计为7,000万吨,其中中国产量最高,为4,100万吨,其次是印度、俄罗斯和加拿大。广泛的生产凸显了铝在运输、包装、建筑和电力传输等领域的关键作用。
由于铝在多个行业的广泛应用,其需求一直呈上升趋势。值得注意的是,运输业利用铝製造汽车、飞机和船舶,而建筑业则将铝用于窗户、门和墙板。此外,铝的可回收性已成为该行业的重要组成部分,其来源包括汽车、家电和饮料罐,突显了其对永续实践的贡献。
铝市场趋势
铝市场的一个趋势是越来越重视回收利用,这已成为该行业的关键方面。回收铝仅需生产原铝所需能源的5%左右,具有经济和环境的优势。这种向回收利用转变的原因是金属具有无限的可回收性,且不会损失任何特性,这符合全球永续发展目标并减少了该行业的碳足迹。
动力学
政府主导的基础设施扩张加速铝消费
政府支持的基础设施投资正在推动铝需求大幅成长。在美国,两党基础设施法案为交通、能源和宽频项目拨款超过 1.2 兆美元,其中许多项目需要大量铝用于建筑和电气应用。同样,到2025年,印度国家基础设施管道预计投资将达到1.4兆美元,这将促进铝在铁路、电力传输和智慧城市等领域的使用。这些大规模倡议凸显了铝在现代化基础建设中的关键作用。
能源密集冶炼製程导致高生产成本和排放
铝冶炼过程能源消耗庞大,能源成本约占总生产费用的三分之一。大量的能源消耗导致生产成本上升和温室气体排放增加。值得注意的是,该产业约占全球温室气体排放量的 2%,相当于每年约 11 亿吨二氧化碳。
Global aluminum market size reached US$ 231.82 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$ 401.60 billion by 2032, growing with a CAGR of 7.11% during the forecast period 2025-2032.
Aluminum is the second most abundant metallic element in the Earth's crust and has become integral to various industries due to its lightweight, corrosion-resistant, and durable properties. In 2023, global primary aluminum production was estimated at 70 million tons, with China leading the output at 41 million tons, followed by India, Russia, and Canada. This widespread production underscores aluminum's critical role in sectors such as transportation, packaging, construction, and electrical transmission.
The demand for aluminum has seen a consistent upward trajectory, driven by its extensive application across multiple industries. Notably, the transportation sector utilizes aluminum for manufacturing automobiles, airplanes, and marine vessels, while the construction industry incorporates it into windows, doors, and siding. Additionally, aluminum's recyclability has become a significant component of the industry, with sources including automobiles, appliances, and beverage cans, highlighting its contribution to sustainable practices.
Aluminum Market Trend
A trend in the aluminum market is the increasing emphasis on recycling, which has become a crucial aspect of the industry. Recycling aluminum requires only about 5% of the energy needed to produce primary aluminum, making it both economically and environmentally advantageous. This shift towards recycling is driven by the metal's infinite recyclability without loss of properties, aligning with global sustainability goals and reducing the industry's carbon footprint.
Dynamics
Government-Led Infrastructure Expansion Accelerating Aluminum Consumption
Government-backed infrastructure investments are driving substantial growth in aluminum demand. In the US, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law allocates over US$ 1.2 trillion toward transportation, energy, and broadband projects, many of which require large volumes of aluminum for construction and electrical applications. Similarly, India's National Infrastructure Pipeline involves an estimated investment of US$ 1.4 trillion through 2025, promoting aluminum use in sectors like railways, power transmission, and smart cities. These large-scale initiatives underscore aluminum's critical role in modern infrastructure development.
Energy-Intensive Smelting Process Contributing to High Production Costs and Emissions
The aluminum smelting process is highly energy-intensive, with energy costs comprising approximately one-third of total production expenses. This substantial energy consumption contributes to elevated production costs and significant greenhouse gas emissions. Notably, the industry accounts for about 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions, equating to roughly US$ 1.1 billion tons of CO2 annually.
The global aluminum market is segmented based on product, form, application, end-user and region.
Aluminum Alloys Fueling Growth in Automotive and Construction Sectors
Aluminum alloys are playing an increasingly critical role in the automotive industry, particularly in India. According to the Indian Ministry of Mines, the country produced over 4.1 million tons of primary aluminum in 2023, representing around 6% of the global output. A significant portion of this aluminum is used in the production of alloy wheels and lightweight vehicle components, aligned with the government's push for electric mobility and fuel efficiency standards under FAME II and BS-VI regulations.
In the construction sector, aluminum alloys are being widely adopted due to their high strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance. The US Geological Survey reported that domestic primary aluminum production in the US was approximately 880,000 metric tons in 2023, with major use in building facades, window frames, and other structural components. This demand is supported by public infrastructure projects and energy-efficient building mandates at the federal and state levels.
Rising Infrastructure and Industrialization Driving Aluminum Demand in Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, plays a pivotal role in the global aluminum market. In 2023, China's primary aluminum production reached a record 41.59 million metric tons, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year. This growth, however, represents the third consecutive year of deceleration, influenced by factors such as power shortages in southwestern regions like Yunnan. These shortages were due to insufficient hydropower supply, leading to production constraints.
In India, government initiatives have significantly impacted aluminum demand, especially in the construction sector. The 2024-25 budget allocated US$ 32 billion for rural development, aiming to enhance infrastructure and housing in rural areas. This substantial investment is expected to boost demand for construction materials, including aluminum, as the country focuses on improving rural infrastructure.
Impact of US Tariffs
The imposition of US tariffs on aluminum imports has significantly influenced the global aluminum market, affecting trade flows, pricing, and production dynamics. In response to the 25% tariff imposed by the US on aluminum imports, key suppliers have redirected their exports to alternative markets. Canada, which accounted for approximately 85% of US aluminum imports in 2024, began channeling more aluminum to Europe to mitigate the impact of US tariffs.
The shift has led to increased aluminum supply in European markets, exerting downward pressure on prices there. Specifically, the Rotterdam P1020A duty-paid premium declined from US$ 370 per ton in early January to US$ 320-330 per ton, reflecting this increased supply. Domestically, the tariffs have contributed to a rise in US aluminum prices.
The Platts US Midwest Transaction premium, a benchmark for aluminum pricing, increased from 18.8 cents per pound at the end of 2024 to 23.8 cents per pound by mid-January 2025. This escalation reflects the market's anticipation of constrained supply due to the tariffs.
The major global players in the market include United Company RUSAL, ALUMINUM CORPORATION OF CHINA LIMITED, Rio Tinto Group of Companies, Alcoa Corporation, Norsk Hydro ASA, Emirates Global Aluminium PJSC, Vedanta Limited, China Hongqiao Group Limited, Century Aluminum Company, and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation.
Target Audience 2024
LIST NOT EXHAUSTIVE