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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1890754
永续航空燃料 (SAF) 市场规模、占有率、成长及全球产业分析:依类型、应用和地区划分的洞察与预测 (2024-2032)Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Size, Share, Growth and Global Industry Analysis By Type & Application, Regional Insights and Forecast to 2024-2032 |
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全球永续航空燃料 (SAF) 市场正快速改变航空业的脱碳进程。在减少碳排放的压力不断增加、企业永续发展措施日益加强以及政府监管不断完善的推动下,2024 年市场规模预计将达到 18.4519 亿美元。在大规模永续航空燃料 (SAF) 采购合约和生产技术方面大量投资的支持下,预计到 2025 年,SAF 市场规模将显着增长至 27.2378 亿美元。到 2032 年,SAF 市场预计将达到 286.3636 亿美元,2025 年至 2032 年的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 将达到 39.95%。
北美在 2024 年占市场主导地位,市占率为 46%,这得益于强有力的政策支持、税收优惠以及诸如美国 SAF 大挑战计划等举措。该计划旨在到 2030 年实现年产 30 亿加仑 SAF。 SAF 的重要性日益凸显,因为航空业占全球二氧化碳排放量的 2%,占交通运输排放量的 12%。根据国际民航组织 (ICAO) 的数据,到 2024 年,46 个机场将有超过 36 万架次商业航班使用可持续航空燃料 (SAF),这表明全球范围内 SAF 的普及速度正在迅速增长。
市场动态
驱动因素:对低碳替代燃料的需求加速成长
人们对气候变迁的日益关注,加上航空排放量的不断上升,正推动航空公司向永续燃料转型。根据原料和生产方法的不同,SAF 可以将生命週期内的二氧化碳排放量减少高达 80%。国际航空运输协会 (IATA) 估计,到 2050 年实现航空净零排放目标,SAF 将占航空减排总量的 65%,因此,大规模生产 SAF 的紧迫性前所未有。
政府介入也在推动 SAF 的普及。欧盟的 "ReFuelEU" 强制令(要求到2025年实现2%的可持续航空燃料(SAF)比例)以及英国即将于2025年实施的SAF强制令,正迫使航空公司过渡到更高的混合比例。在美国,一项将于2024年推出的政策调整将使乙醇基原料有资格获得SAF补贴,从而提振投资者信心。
机会:技术创新与生产规模化
新科技正在迅速涌现。儘管HEFA-SPK製程因其原料弹性仍是目前主流的SAF生产工艺,但诸如醇製航空煤油和费托合成(FT)等替代技术也在不断发展。 2024年,霍尼韦尔推出了一种新型生物质基SAF加氢裂解技术,与化石基航空煤油相比,该技术可减少90%的排放。 LanzaJet 的 Freedom Pines 燃料工厂是全球首家商业化乙醇衍生可持续航空燃料 (SAF) 工厂,该工厂在 2024 年也迎来了一个重要的里程碑。
全球企业措施正加速市场成长。美国、欧洲和亚洲的主要航空公司正在采用 SAF 来实现其永续发展目标。近期签订的合约包括加拿大航空采购 6 万吨 SAF、新加坡航空采购 1000 吨 SAF 以及波音公司在 2024 年购买 750 万加仑混合 SAF。
限制因素:高成本与原料限制
儘管发展势头强劲,但 SAF 的普及仍受到高昂生产成本的限制,目前其成本是传统航空燃料的 2 至 7 倍。 2023 年,SAF 的平均价格为每吨 2,500 美元,约为传统航空燃料成本的 2.8 倍。废弃食用油、牛油、废油和脂肪等原料短缺进一步限制了产能。根据 SkyNRG 的一份报告,到 2050 年满足全球可持续航空燃料 (SAF) 的需求将需要新建 500 至 800 座 SAF 设施,以及约 1 兆美元的投资,这凸显了这项工作的规模之大。
主要细分市场特征
截至 2024 年,生物燃料凭藉其与现有飞机和基础设施的兼容性,占了 SAF 类型市场 87% 的占有率,处于领先地位。
在技术领域,HEFA-SPK 处于领先地位,而 ATJ-SPK 凭藉其灵活的醇类原料选择,预计将成长最快。
就混合能力而言,随着航空公司提高 SAF 混合比例以实现净零排放目标,30-50% 的混合比例将在 2024 年占主导地位。
由于航空公司加强了永续发展工作,商业航空领域将占最大占有率。
依应用领域划分,在原始设备製造商 (OEM) 测试和政府激励措施的支持下,固定翼飞机将在 2024 年占主导地位。
北美仍将是最大的区域市场,预计到 2024 年将达到 12.6461 亿美元。强而有力的政策框架和 Neste、World Energy 等主要可持续航空燃料 (SAF) 供应商将继续支持市场扩张。
欧洲将位居第二,这主要得益于积极的减排政策。在大型 SAF 采购合约和严格的监管义务的推动下,预计到 2025 年,SAF 市场规模将达到 8.866 亿美元。
亚太地区正在快速扩张,航空运输量迅速成长,中国、日本、澳洲和印度也推出了新的 SAF 计画。
拉丁美洲和非洲是新兴市场,拥有丰富的生物质资源和有利的政府政策支持,例如巴西2024年颁布的 "未来燃料法案" 。
The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is rapidly transforming the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts. In 2024, the market reached USD 1,845.19 million, driven by rising pressure to reduce carbon emissions, increased corporate sustainability commitments, and expanding government mandates. The market is expected to grow significantly to USD 2,723.78 million in 2025, supported by large-scale SAF procurement agreements and substantial investments in production technologies. By 2032, the SAF market is projected to reach an impressive USD 28,636.36 million, exhibiting a robust CAGR of 39.95% from 2025 to 2032.
North America dominated the market in 2024 with a 46% share, fueled by strong policy support, tax incentives, and initiatives such as the U.S. SAF Grand Challenge, targeting 3 billion gallons of annual production by 2030. SAF's importance continues to rise as aviation accounts for 2% of global CO2 emissions and 12% of transportation-sector emissions. More than 360,000 commercial flights across 46 airports used SAF in 2024, according to ICAO, reflecting rapid global adoption.
Market Dynamics
Drivers: Accelerating Demand for Low-Carbon Alternatives
Growing awareness of climate change, combined with aviation's increasing emissions footprint, is driving airlines to transition to sustainable fuels. SAF can reduce lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80%, depending on feedstock and production method. As IATA estimates that 65% of aviation emission reductions needed for net-zero by 2050 will come from SAF, the urgency for large-scale production has never been greater.
Government intervention is also boosting adoption. Mandates such as the EU's ReFuelEU, requiring 2% SAF use by 2025, and the U.K.'s SAF mandate beginning in 2025, are pushing airlines toward higher blending ratios. In the U.S., 2024 policy changes allowed ethanol-based feedstocks to qualify for SAF subsidies, increasing investor confidence.
Opportunities: Technological Innovation and Scaling Production
New technologies are emerging rapidly. HEFA-SPK remains the dominant SAF production pathway due to feedstock flexibility, but alternatives like Alcohol-to-Jet and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) are expanding. In 2024, Honeywell introduced a new biomass-to-SAF hydrocracking technology capable of reducing emissions by 90% versus fossil-based jet fuel. The world's first commercial ethanol-to-jet SAF plant, LanzaJet's Freedom Pines Fuels, also opened in 2024, marking a major milestone.
Global corporate initiatives are accelerating market growth. Major airlines across the U.S., Europe, and Asia are adopting SAF to meet sustainability targets. Recent agreements include Air Canada's procurement of 60,000 tons, Singapore Airlines' purchase of 1,000 tons, and Boeing's acquisition of 7.5 million gallons of blended SAF in 2024.
Restraints: High Cost and Feedstock Constraints
Despite strong momentum, SAF adoption is hindered by high production costs-currently 2 to 7 times higher than conventional jet fuel. In 2023, SAF averaged USD 2,500 per ton, approximately 2.8X the cost of traditional jet fuel. Feedstock scarcity-especially for used cooking oil, tallow, and waste fats-further limits production capacity. SkyNRG reports that achieving global SAF demand in 2050 would require 500-800 new SAF facilities and approximately USD 1 trillion in investment, reflecting the enormous scale required.
Segmentation Highlights
Biofuel dominated SAF types in 2024 with an 87% market share, due to compatibility with existing aircraft and infrastructure.
HEFA-SPK led the technology segment, while ATJ-SPK is projected to grow fastest due to flexible alcohol feedstock options.
In blending capacity, the 30-50% segment dominated in 2024 as airlines increased SAF blending to achieve net-zero targets.
The commercial aviation segment held the largest share due to rising airline sustainability commitments.
By application, fixed-wing aircraft dominated in 2024, supported by OEM testing and government incentives.
North America remained the largest regional market, valued at USD 1,264.61 million in 2024. Strong policy frameworks and leading SAF suppliers, such as Neste and World Energy, continue to support expansion.
Europe ranked second, anchored by its aggressive emission-reduction mandates. The region is forecast to reach USD 886.60 million in 2025, driven by large SAF procurement contracts and strict regulatory obligations.
Asia Pacific is expanding due to rapid air-traffic growth and new SAF initiatives in China, Japan, Australia, and India.
Latin America and Africa are emerging markets, supported by abundant biomass and favorable government policies such as Brazil's Fuel of the Future Law (2024).
Conclusion
With market value rising from USD 1,845.19 million in 2024 to USD 28,636.36 million by 2032, Sustainable Aviation Fuel is positioned as the most critical pillar of aviation's decarbonization pathway. Despite cost barriers and feedstock challenges, expanding technologies, supportive regulations, and large-scale airline commitments will drive unprecedented growth through 2032.
Segmentation By Type, Technology, Blending Capacity, End Use, and Application
By Type
By Technology
By Blending Capacity
By End Use
By Application
By Region * North America (By Type, Technology, Blending Capacity, End Use, Application, and Country)