俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动及其对全球汽车业的影响

由于原材料、半导体芯片、电动汽车电池和催化转换器的供应恶化以及工厂关闭，全球汽车产量减少了 100 万辆。由于乌克兰供应商的零件短缺，一些欧洲和东欧的原始设备製造商已经暂停或放缓了生产。生产中断和汽车零部件供应短缺是这场危机的直接后果，预计未来几週供应链问题和原材料短缺。

本报告调查分析了俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动及其对全球汽车产业的影响、战略需求、增长环境、俄罗斯和乌克兰乘用车产业概况、汽车零部件和原材料概况。对供应炼和 OEM 观点的影响。

目录

战略要求

• 为什么增长变得越来越困难？
• 战略要点 8 (TM)
• 三大战略要求对汽车行业的影响
• 增长机会推动增长管道引擎 (TM)

成长环境

• 俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动：主要亮点和对汽车的影响
• 汽车行业动荡的主要领域
• 2020年全球乘用车生产概况
• 俄罗斯和乌克兰乘用车製造亮点
• 俄罗斯/乌克兰乘用车生产厂
• 全球汽车 OEM 暂停与俄罗斯和乌克兰的贸易
• 俄罗斯汽车零部件行业概况
• 乌克兰汽车零部件产业概况
• 影响分析-汽车零部件及原材料
• OEM 特定影响概览

俄罗斯/乌克兰乘用车行业概述

• 乘用车行业快照：俄罗斯
• 乘用车行业快照：乌克兰
• 危机的区域前景
• OEM 在俄罗斯/乌克兰失去商业机会
• 分析俄罗斯和乌克兰对 OEM 的影响
• 可能的 OEM/供应商策略

汽车零部件概述及对供应链的影响

• 受衝突影响的汽车零部件
• 俄罗斯主要汽车零部件供应商及经营状况
• 乌克兰主要汽车零部件供应商及经营状况
• 乌克兰汽车零部件行业：供应商行为
• 影响分析：汽车零部件

原材料概述及其对供应链的影响

• 俄罗斯原材料供应快照
• 钯：市场概览
• 钯：汽车催化剂材料
• 钯金：价格呈指数增长
• 镍：市场概况
• 镍价11年来最高
• 镍，电动汽车电池：主要汽车应用
• 镍价飙升使电动汽车成本增加 1,000 美元
• 氖气供应问题：俄罗斯 2014 年对乌克兰的军事行动的教训
• 缺氖气加剧芯片短缺危机
• 影响分析：原材料

OEM 视角

• 雷诺：概览
• 雷诺：影响分析
• 现代和起亚：概览
• 现代和起亚：影响分析
• Stellantis：概述
• Stellantis：影响分析
• 大众汽车：概览
• 大众汽车：影响分析
• 丰田：概览
• 丰田：影响分析
• 中国品牌

增长机会宇宙

• 增长机会一：深化行业合作，避免采购问题
• 增长机会 2：避免零部件短缺的替代采购策略
• 增长机会3：OEM减少因衝突而失去的商机

受访者的调查结果

Worsening Supply of Raw Materials, Semiconductor Chips, EV Batteries, and Catalytic Converters Coupled with Plant Shutdowns would Lead to 1 Million Fewer Vehicles Being Produced Worldwide

The Russo-Ukrainian war severely disrupted the automotive value chain and prompted OEMs and suppliers to defer or discontinue trade with Russia. Several OEMs in Europe and Eastern Europe have paused or slowed their production due to a lack of parts from Ukraine-based suppliers. Production halt and auto parts supply shortage are the immediate effect of this crisis, and supply chain issues and raw material shortages are expected in the coming weeks. OEMs, including Toyota, Ford, Volvo, Jaguar-Land Rover, General Motors, and BMW, have ceased export operations to Russia, with many of them suspending Russian joint ventures in response to the invasion. Russia is a major supplier of key metals & minerals, and export sanctions have severely impacted commodity demand and prices.

The study aims to provide an overview of the automotive industry in Russia and Ukraine, key manufacturers, the share of these countries in the global automotive industry, and analyze the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the global automotive industry. The research service will elucidate the key issues auto OEMs face for raw material & auto parts demand and supply. It will help understand the current market position and how the industry responds, particularly in vehicle production, business opportunity, and supply chains. It provides an overview of the key OEMs/suppliers, services & products and analyzes the strategies adopted by them for mitigating the crisis. In addition to the effect of the crisis on the automotive industry and key areas of impact, the report analyzes future areas of disruption, impact on the supply chain due to raw material shortage, and manufacturing strategies. Frost & Sullivan has examined the auto components industry and analyzed which automotive segments will be severely impacted by the conflict.

By providing a comprehensive overview of the industry from multiple angles, this research service seeks to:

• Capture the current scenario of the global automotive market and the Russo-Ukrainian automotive industry.

• Understand the role of Russia as a major metal supplier.

• Identify the role of Ukraine in the global automotive industry.

• Understand the landscape of the supply chain crisis and how it can be solved.

• Understand and analyze the current scale and effects of the crisis on the global automotive industry.

• Identify OEM risk mitigation strategies and best practices followed.

From an automotive and transportation standpoint, this study provides a global outlook of the ongoing crisis and analyzes its impact on the OEMs and auto-component manufacturers.

This study takes a deep dive into Russia's and Ukraine's contribution to the global automotive industry, the best practices adopted by some OEMs to deal with the crisis, and what can be done to mitigate future crises in this domain.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What is the current state of the automotive industry?

• What are the major areas of disruption and effects of the crisis on the automotive industry?

• What are the key factors and trends that could fuel the auto chip shortage?

• What strategies are followed by leading OEMs who conduct business with Russia and Ukraine?

• What is the effect of this crisis on European or global auto production?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on Automotive Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Russo-Ukrainian War, Key Highlights & Impact on Automotive
• Key Areas of Disruption in Automotive
• Global Passenger Vehicle Production Overview, 2020
• Highlights of Passenger Vehicle Manufacturing in Russia & Ukraine
• Passenger Vehicle Production Plants in Russia & Ukraine
• Global Automotive OEMs Pausing Trade With Russia & Ukraine
• Snapshot of the Russian Auto Parts Industry
• Snapshot of the Ukrainian Auto Parts Industry
• Impact Analysis-Auto Parts and Raw Materials
• Overview of OEM Specific Impact

Russia & Ukraine Passenger Car Industry Overview

• Passenger Car Industry Snapshots, Russia
• Passenger Car Industry Snapshots, Ukraine
• Regional Outlook of the Crisis
• Business Opportunity Loss in Russia & Ukraine for OEMs
• Impact Analysis on the OEMs in Russia & Ukraine
• Possible OEM/Supplier Strategies

Auto Parts Overview and Impact on the Supply Chain

• Auto Parts that are Affected due to the Conflict
• Auto Parts that are Affected due to the Conflict (continued)
• Key Auto Parts Suppliers in Russia & Operational Status
• Key Auto Parts Suppliers in Ukraine & Operational Status
• Ukraine Auto Parts Industry, Supplier Actions
• Impact Analysis-Auto Parts

Raw Materials Overview and Impact on the Supply Chain

• Snapshot of the Russian Supply of Raw Materials
• Palladium, Market Overview
• Palladium, Catalytic Material in Automotive
• Palladium, Exponential Increase in Price
• Nickel, Market Overview
• Nickel Prices Touching a 11-Year High
• Nickel, EV Battery-The Key Automotive Application
• Nickel Price Surge to Increase the Cost of EVs by $1,000
• Neon Gas Supply Issues-Lessons from 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War
• The Chip Shortage Crisis to be Aggravated by Shortage of Neon Gas
• Impact Analysis-Raw Material
• Impact Analysis-Raw Material (continued)

OEM Perspective

• Renault, Overview
• Renault, Impact Analysis
• Hyundai and Kia, Overview
• Hyundai and Kia, Impact Analysis
• Stellantis, Overview
• Stellantis, Impact Analysis
• Volkswagen, Overview
• Volkswagen, Impact Analysis
• Toyota, Overview
• Toyota, Impact Analysis
• Chinese Brands

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Deepen Industry Collaboration to Avoid Procurement Issues
• Growth Opportunity 1-Deepen Industry Collaboration to Avoid Procurement Issues (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternative Product Sourcing Strategies to Avoid Shortage in Components
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternative Product Sourcing Strategies to Avoid Shortage in Components (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-OEMs Mitigating the Business Opportunity Losses due to the Conflict
• Growth Opportunity 3-OEMs Mitigating the Business Opportunity Losses due to the Conflict (continued)

Survey Results from Respondents

• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 1
• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 2
• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 3
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer