美国 4 级自动驾驶卡车市场：市场增长潜力和最后一英里 B2C 交付

到 2040 年，31.4% 的最后一英里 B2C 交付细分市场预计将由 1-6 级自动驾驶汽车提供服务，自动驾驶总收入预计将达到约 699.8 亿美元。

本报告考察了美国 4 级自动驾驶卡车市场，并提供了市场概览、战略要务、增长机会等。

内容

战略要务

• 为什么增长越来越难？
• 战略要务
• 三大战略要务的影响
• 增长机会加速增长管道引擎

成长环境

• 车辆自动化程度
• SAE 定义的影响
• 各种区域自动化工具
• 最后一英里配送业务的细分
• 最后一英里 B2C 交付模式 - 传统和自主
• 自主企业测试/部署环境
• 调查范围
• 调查的目的和目标
• 自主技术细分
• 增长动力
• 抑制增长的因素
• 增长指标

预测性研究方法

• 预测研究方法

第 1 部分 - 最后一英里 B2C 交付类 1-6 VIO 预测

• 美国零售总额 - 所有主要的最后一英里细分市场
• 细分市场分类 #1 - 汽车零配件
• 细分分类 #2 - 内部硬件
• 细分分类 #3 - 电子设备
• 细分分类 #4 – 杂货和其他必需品
• 细分分类 #5 – 非商店零售商
• 细分分类 #6 - 其他产品
• 1-6 类最后一英里 B2C 交付 VIO

第 2 部分 - 大都市地区的分阶段自主准备情况预测

• 按自治度得分选出前 384 个都市区
• 影响自治路线就绪性的因素 - 人口得分
• 影响自治路线就绪性的因素 - 人口密度
• 影响自主路线就绪性的因素 - 消耗分数
• 影响自主路线就绪性的因素 - 年龄组得分
• 影响自主路线就绪性的因素 - 监管分数
• 第一阶段大都市区选择 - 投影 TAAM &SAAM
• 第 2 阶段大都市区选择 - 投影 TAAM &SAAM
• 第 3 阶段大都市区选择 - 预测 TAAM 和 SAAM
• 东京都市区选择摘要~预测的 TAAM 和 SAAM~

第 3 部分 - 最后一英里 B2C 交付中的总自主 CV 预测

结论

市场进入者简介

• Udelv
• Gatik
• Robomart

增长机会领域

• 增长机会 1 - 有利的自主监管
• 增长机会 2 - 自主盈利潜力
• 增长机会 3 - 新应用和多样化的操作条件

下一步

Transformational Growth of Autonomous Vehicle Adoption to Result in 31.4% Autonomously-driven Last-mile B2C Deliveries in 2040

Autonomous trucks are the next logical step to overcome logistics bottlenecks and match pace with the rapidly changing freight carriage ecosystem. Unlike human drivers, who must limit their operating hours to remain safe, autonomous systems can operate trucks 24-7, increasing commodity flow in the freight value system. Several leading automotive OEMs have taken the initiative to develop and test their autonomous technologies, while some have invested in emerging technology start-ups.

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines 5 levels of vehicle automation. The higher the level, the higher the transfer of driving responsibility to machines, with L4 and L5 being very high automation. Each segment of transportation has scope for automation. The level of complexity varies, but for journeys ranging in length, from last-mile delivery and utility applications within a city to interstate long-haul transport, automated vehicles can change the transportation landscape.

This report focuses on the last-mile B2C delivery segment, where the product reaches the customer's location. It can include food and groceries from a neighborhood store or eCommerce parcels from local fulfillment centers. The routes are usually multistop, with deliveries at multiple customer locations in a single trip, and the weight of the goods varies.

The report analyzes application-wise retail sales data in the last-mile B2C delivery segment to calculate the potential total vehicles in operation, catered by Class 1 to 6 commercial vehicles. The total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption within the addressable market (SAAM) are calculated for 2022, 2030, and 2040 by grass root analysis of each metropolitan area and phase-wise segregation of adoption.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, 31.4% of the last-mile B2C delivery segment will be catered by autonomous Class 1 to 6 vehicles, and the total autonomous revenue will be approximately $69.98 B.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Levels of Vehicle Automation
• Impact of SAE Definitions
• Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
• Breakdown for Last-mile Delivery Operations
• Delivery Modes in Last-mile B2C-Conventional versus Autonomous
• Autonomous Companies' Testing/Deployment Landscape
• Research Scope
• Research Aims and Objectives
• Autonomous Technology Segmentation
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Growth Metrics

Forecast Methodology

• Forecast Methodology

Segment 1-Last-mile B2C Delivery Class 1-6 VIO Forecast

• Total US Retail Sales-All Major Last-mile Segment Applications
• Segment Classification #1-Auto Parts & Accessories
• Segment Classification #2-Home Decor & Hardware
• Segment Classification #3-Electronics & Appliances
• Segment Classification #4-Grocery & Other Necessities
• Segment Classification #5-Nonstore Retailer
• Segment Classification #6-Other Merchandise
• Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO

Segment 2-Forecasting Phase-wise Autonomous Readiness of Metropolitan Areas

• Selection of Top 384 Metropolitan Areas for Autonomous Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Density
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Consumption Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Age Group Score
• Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Regulation Score
• Phase 1 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
• Phase 2 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
• Phase 3 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
• Summary of Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Segment 3-Forecast of Total Autonomous CVs in Last-mile B2C Delivery

• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO-Application-wise Split
• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery TAAM VIO-Application-wise Split
• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery SAAM VIO-Application-wise Spilt
• Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery-Revenue Forecast

Conclusion

• Class 1-6 Autonomous Vehicles in Last-mile B2C Delivery-Units & Revenue Potential
• Key Takeaways

Last-mile B2C Autonomous Player Profiles

• Udelv
• Gatik
• Robomart*

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations
• Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential
• Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions
• Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions (continued)

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer