全球轻型、中型和重型商用车市场展望（2023年）

本报告审视和分析了全球轻型、中型和重型商用车市场，提供有关每个地区的显着法规和趋势、全球经济前景和增长机会的资讯。

内容

战略要务

• 为什么成长越来越难？
• 战略要务 8 (TM)
• 三大战略要务对 LCV、MD 和 HD 卡车行业的影响
• 增长机会推动增长 Pipeline Engine(TM)

成长环境

• 主要发现：2022 年摘要
• 主要发现：2023 年 5 大预测
• 值得注意的法规和义务：概览
• 轻型商用车市场
• MD/HD 卡车市场

范围和分段

• 调查范围
• 市场细分

世界经济展望（2023）

• 全球经济五大亮点（2022年）
• 全球经济五大亮点（2023年）
• 全球 GDP 增长预测
• 主要国家的衰退/放缓预测
• 全球 GDP 增长概况
• 发达经济体预测（2023 年）
• 新兴经济体预测（2023 年）
• 区域风险和政策方向（2023 年）
• 主要增长机会：按地区划分（2023 年）

趋势

• 全球商用车市场：主要趋势
• 趋势的影响：按地区划分
• 趋势 1：车队向零排放车辆过渡
• 趋势 2：以电动汽车为中心的车辆管理解决方案
• 趋势 3：併购促进充电基础设施建设
• 趋势 4：引入 TaaS
• 趋势 5：燃料电池动力 CV 的出现

轻型商用车市场展望

• 市场预测
• 市场预测：按地区、按类别
• 轻型商用车 OEM 销售业绩
• 动力总成技术预测
• 预计主要 OEM 将推出 eLCV

MD/HD卡车市场前景

• 市场预测
• 市场预测：按地区、按类别
• MD/HD 卡车 OEM 销售结果
• 动力总成技术预测
• 主要 OEM 预计将推出 eMD/HD 卡车

LCV/MD/HD卡车市场区域分析

• 区域分析：北美
• OEM动力总成技术平台：北美
• 区域分析：欧洲
• OEM 动力总成技术平台：欧洲
• 区域分析：中国
• OEM动力总成技术平台：中国
• 区域分析：印度
• OEM动力总成技术平台：印度
• 区域分析：拉丁美洲
• OEM动力总成技术平台：拉丁美洲
• 区域分析：东盟
• OEM动力总成技术平台：东盟

商用车的主要趋势

• 连接性
• 电气化
• 售后市场
• L4级自动驾驶
• 关键领域取得的进展

增长机会

• 增长机会 1：充电基础设施
• 增长机会 2：氢燃料电池生态系统
• 增长机会 3：卡车即服务

下一步

Growth Regions China and India Drive Truck Demand Amid Continued Market Uncertainties

In this report, Frost & Sullivan studies the light commercial vehicle (LCV) and medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) truck segments for six regions: North America, Europe, China, India, Latin America, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study period is 2022-2023, with 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the forecast year.

We segment the market by gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR); LCVs have a GVWR lower than 6 tons, while M&HD trucks have a GVWR equal to or above 6 tons. The subsegments in LCVs are pickups, vans, and cab-over-engine trucks. M&HD trucks comprise MD and HD trucks. The powertrain types include diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles (EVs).

Our analysis shows that the war in Ukraine had a cascading effect on multiple sectors of the global economy, with the overall business sentiment taking a huge hit. Supply chain constraints due to the war took inflation to unprecedented levels globally, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates. This increased the financing cost to purchase new equipment. Volatile energy markets resulted in a sharp rise in fuel prices, which ate into the profit margins of fleet operators. The truck market in Europe contracted by 18.3% in 2022. The truck market in China plummeted in 2022, contracting by over 50% due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in most of the country, which led to lockdowns and tight curfew controls.

However, not all developments in 2022 were adverse. Established as well as new and upcoming original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the space launched several electric truck models. Tesla delivered its first semi-tractor trucks in December 2022, starting with Pepsi. The EV ecosystem dynamics rose to a different level, with companies from diverse backgrounds coming together, resulting in partnerships between OEMs, energy companies, and charging providers. Newer business models such as truck-as-a-service (TaaS) are gaining traction thanks to Volta Trucks, Quantron, and Nikola.

Frost & Sullivan expects economic challenges faced in 2022 to continue in 2023 as the situation has remained largely the same, especially with regard to the war. We anticipate rising fears of a recession in North America to make businesses and fleets more cautious about new purchases and investments. The market situation in Europe is still uncertain due to the status of the war, with little indication of its development. However, China and India will be the bright spots for the trucking industry in 2023, with improving macro indicators and demand from growing infrastructure activity.

The report offers stakeholders insights into the commercial vehicles market using the following:

• Recaps of 2022 and predictions for 2023
• Notable regulations and trends by region
• Global economic outlook
• LCV and M&HD segments outlook through sales, OEMs, powertrain technology, and product launches
• Analysis by region
• Growth opportunities

Key Issues Addressed:

• Trends impacting the global truck industry?
• The size of the global truck industry in 2022, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
• Expected volume growth in 2023 and drivers in different regions?
• Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
• Top OEM performers in 2022 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Key Findings: A Recap of 2022
• Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2023
• Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
• LCV Market
• M&HD Truck Market

Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

2023 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2022
• Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2023
• Global GDP Growth Expectations
• Recessionary/Slowdown Expectations for Major Economies
• Global GDP Growth Snapshot
• Advanced Economy Predictions for 2023
• Emerging Economy Predictions for 2023
• 2023 Regional Risks and Policy Direction
• 2023 Top Growth Opportunities by Region

Trends

• Global Commercial Vehicle Market: Top Trends
• Impact of Trends by Region
• Trend 1: Fleets Moving to Zero-emission Vehicles
• Trend 2: EV-centric Fleet Management Solutions
• Trend 3: M&As Drive Charging Infrastructure
• Trend 4: TaaS Adoption
• Trend 5: Emergence of Fuel Cell-powered CVs

LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

M&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches

LCV and M&HD Truck Market Regional Analysis

• Regional Analysis: North America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
• Regional Analysis: Europe
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Europe
• Regional Analysis: China
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China
• Regional Analysis: India
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India
• Regional Analysis: Latin America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Latin America
• Regional Analysis: ASEAN
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: ASEAN

Major Commercial Vehicle Trends

• Connectivity
• Electrification
• Aftermarket
• Autonomous L4
• Progress in Key Areas

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Electric Charging Infrastructure
• Growth Opportunity 2: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ecosystem
• Growth Opportunity 3: Truck-as-a-Service

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer