市场调查报告书
商品编码
1303462
北美和欧洲电动轻型商用车的传动系统增长机会North American and European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Drivetrain Growth Opportunities |
先进的平台技术和跨车身风格的平台共享确保了先进传动系统架构的未来增长潜力。
在强有力的政府指令和激励措施以及零部件价格下降带来的 TCO 改善的推动下,北美和欧洲的 eLCV(电动轻型商用车)行业将以 53.9%的年复合成长率增长,到2030 年将达到350 万辆。在eLCV的早期阶段,主要使用电动车桥,在2022年占销售额的近四分之三,但人们对车载驱动器的日益青睐意味着到2030年,它们将占销售额的一半以上。缩小到电动皮卡很可能采用车载驱动架构,而北美LCV行业以皮卡为主,因此未来车载驱动整体渗透率预计将保持较高水平。由于货车是轻型商用车市场的主导,电动车轴预计将成为货车的主要传动系统选择。然而,到 2030 年,在电动车桥中,电动车桥的渗透率将相对于电动车冠有所下降。
车载电机将继续成为皮卡的主要驱动架构,而电子车轴,尤其是电子皇冠,将成为货车的主要驱动架构。到 2030 年,随着 Canoo 和 Rivian 等新电动新兴企业基于其皮卡所使用的相同平台开发货车,电机在货车中的普及率将越来越高,预计将成为主要因素。电动皮卡预计将在 2025 年之后进入欧洲市场,除了大众的 Amarok 电动皮卡外,主要由北美整车厂提供。许多重型车辆用途预计将采用靠近车轮的内侧驱动架构,以实现最佳扭矩传递和高功率输出。随着公司放弃旧平台并采用更新的纯电动平台,驱动架构偏好预计会发生相应变化,从而产生更强大、更高效和更灵活的架构。
Advanced Platform Technology and Platform Sharing Across Body Styles to Ensure Future Growth Potential of Advanced Drivetrain Architectures
The elk industry in North America and Europe is expected to grow at a CAGR of 53.9% until 2030 to 3.5 million units, driven by strong government mandates and incentives, and improving TCO because of falling component prices. The initial phase of eLCVs will predominantly use eAxles, making up nearly three-fourths of the sales in 2022; however, this is expected to shrink to just more than half of sales by 2030 because of the growing preference for in-board drives. Electric pickups are likely to use in-board drive architecture, and with the North American LCV industry being predominantly pickup based, the overall penetration of in-board drive is expected to remain high even in the future. Being a van-dominant LCV market, eAxles are expected to be the major drivetrain option for vans; however, within eAxles, the penetration of eCarrier is likely to decline, when compared to eCrown, by 2030.
In-board motors will remain the dominant drive architecture within pickups, whereas eAxles, especially eCrown, will be the dominant drive architecture in vans. Higher penetration of in-board motors in vans by 2030 is expected to be largely down to new electric start-ups, such as Canoo and Rivian, basing their vans on the same platform as the ones used for their respective pickups. Electric pickups are expected to hit the European market only after 2025 majorly from North American OEMs, in addition to VW's Amarok electric. eAxles currently provide the best balance in terms of price, performance, and durability; however, in-board architecture offers the best performance in terms of efficiency and durability. Many heavy-duty applications are expected to employ in-board drive architecture that is placed close to the wheels to provide optimum torque transfer and high power output. As companies transform from older platforms and adopt newer pure electric platforms, the drive architecture preference is also expected to shift accordingly, to more powerful, efficient, and flexible architectures.