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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1319198
全球校车市场战略机会Strategic Opportunities in the Global School Bus Market |
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需求復苏和持续电气化努力推动增长
Frost & Sullivan 这份关于全球校车行业的研究报告深入分析了增长环境、全球趋势以及按地区细分的校车行业的广泛研究。
随着疫情后市场需求的恢復，老化车辆的更新换代有助于增长，全球校车行业预计将增长4.1%。到 2022 年，校车总出货量将达到 59,346 辆，其中北美（美国和加拿大合计）领先，为 40,556 辆，其次是印度（13,659 辆）和中国（5,131 辆）。
在美国，拜登政府推出了“清洁校车”（CSB）计划，作为两党基础设施法案的一部分，旨在用低排放气体、零排放的公交车取代目前的化石燃料公交车。美国环境保护署 (EPA) 即将推出温室气体 (GHG) 第三阶段计划，制定更严格的排放标准，这项联邦计划的好处对于环境和学童的健康至关重要。这些因素将决定北美电动校车的增长，并在 2030 年实现显着的市场渗透。在中国，电气化高度依赖政府，因为安全是学校交通考虑的主要因素。同样，在印度，如果政府针对该行业的激励措施变得更加具体，电动校车的数量可能会增加。
2022 年的俄罗斯-乌克兰战争影响了天然气价格，但天然气动力传动系统作为电力的替代品预计将获得发展动力。北美已经为丙烷（也称为液化天然气 (LNG)）提供激励措施，并被纳入 CSB 计划的低排放气体类别。在印度，压缩天然气 (CNG) 校车比柴油更具成本效益，因此越来越多地由OEM供应。
从细分市场分类来看，2022年，中型客车将占据整个校车行业的67.4%，引领市场，小型客车将达到26.2%，大型客车将占据6.5%的市场。中型校车将继续主导市场，因为它们提供更高的载客量和最佳的运营效率。小巴在都市区是首选，因为它们易于操纵且距离适中。
此外，虽然校车远程信息处理市场正在增长，但预计可以通过更安全的学校交通和车队管理解决方案来降低运营成本。印度和中国等市场正在修订现有的校车安全标准，以确保引入新技术安全系统，并有利于使用法规的校车而不是其他交通方式。
目录
战略问题
- 为什么成长如此困难？
- The Strategic Imperative 8 (TM)
- 全球校车市场的战略挑战：三大影响
- 增长机会是增长管道引擎（TM）
调查范围
- 分析范围
- 产品和技术细分
成长环境
- 全球校车行业概要（2022年）
- 全球趋势将决定校车市场的未来（2023-2030）
- 按地区分類的全球校车市场概览（2030 年）
增长机会分析
- 主要发现：全球校车市场
- 全球校车市场：按地区分類的销量
- 全球主要增长指标
- 主要预测标准
- 增长促进因素
- 生长抑制因素
- 销售预测
- 预测性考虑
校车市场：北美
- 区域简介：北美
- 主要增长指标：北美
- 销售预测：北美
- 动力传动系统总成预测：北美
- HD动力传动系统总成预测：北美
- MD动力传动系统预测：北美
- LD动力传动系统预测：北美
- 预测讨论：北美
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台：北美
- OEM简介：蓝鸟公司
- OEM简介：托马斯製造巴士
远程信息处理和驾驶辅助系统概述：北美
- 远程信息处理系统的受欢迎程度：北美
- 驾驶员辅助系统 (DAS) 好感度：北美
总拥有成本：北美
- 总拥有成本：参数和假设
- 总拥有成本：北美柴油、NG（天然气）和 ESB 每英里运营成本比较
电动校车 (ESB) 概述：北美
- 电动校车：V2G（Vehicle 2 Grid）概述 - 北美
- 电动校车 (ESB) 规格：北美
- 北美 ESB 激励计划
校车市场：中国
- 中国区域概况
- 主要增长指标：中国
- 销售预测：中国
- 动力传动系统总成预测：中国
- HD动力传动系统预测：中国
- MD动力传动系统预测：中国
- LD动力传动系统预测：中国
- 预测讨论：中国
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台：中国
- OEM简介：宇通客车
- OEM简介：中通客车
远程信息处理和驾驶辅助系统概述：中国
- 中国车联网系统的好感度
- 驾驶辅助系统 (DAS) 的受欢迎程度：中国
校车市场：印度
- 地区概况：印度
- 主要增长指标：印度
- 销售预测：印度
- 印度动力传动系统预测
- HD动力传动系统总成预测：印度 印度
- MD动力传动系统预测：印度
- LD动力传动系统预测：印度
- 预测讨论：印度
- OEM动力传动系统技术平台：印度
- OEM简介：塔塔汽车
- OEM简介： Ashok Leyland
远程信息处理和驾驶辅助系统概述：印度
- 远程信息处理系统的受欢迎程度：印度
- 驾驶员辅助系统 (DAS) 的受欢迎程度：印度
充满增长机会的宇宙
- 增长机会1：新兴市场零排放学校交通的努力
- 增长机会2：扩展ESB充电生态系统并专注于V2G系统
- 增长机会 3：先进的安全和远程信息处理解决方案，实现更安全、更有利可图的学校交通
下一步
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- 附件清单
- 免责声明
A Recovering Demand and Ongoing Electrification Efforts Bolster Growth
This Frost & Sullivan report on the global school bus industry provides an in-depth analysis of the growth environment, global trends, and an extensive examination of the school bus space segmented by region.
The global school bus industry is expected to grow at a 4.1% rate as market demand experiences a rebound after the pandemic, with replacement for aging fleets contributing to growth. In 2022, the total school bus shipments rose to 59,346 units, and the largest share went to North America (combining the United States and Canada), with 40,556 school buses sold in 2022, followed by India with 13,659 buses and China with 5,131 buses.
In the United States, the introduction of the 'Clean School Bus' (CSB) program as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law by the Biden administration aims to replace current fossil fuel buses with low- and zero-emission buses. The benefits of this federal program are paramount to both the environment and the health of school children, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will introduce the Green House Gases (GHG) phase 3 program with stricter emission norms. These factors will determine the growth of electric school buses in North America, with significant market penetration by 2030. In China, electrification will largely depend on the government, as safety is the main factor it considers in school transportation. Similarly, electric school buses will gain ground in India if the government incentives are structured specifically for this segment.
As an alternative to electric, the natural gas powertrain will gain momentum, although natural gas prices have been affected by the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. North America already provides incentives for propane, also known as liquefied natural gas (LNG), and it is included in the CSB program under the low-emission category. In India, compressed natural gas (CNG) school bus offerings see boosting from OEMs as CNG is cost-effective compared to diesel.
Regarding segment classification, in 2022, medium-duty buses led the market with 67.4% out of the total school bus industry, light-duty buses reached 26.2%, while heavy-duty constituted 6.5% of the market. Medium-duty school buses will continue to dominate the market as they offer higher seating capacity with optimal efficiency in operations. The light-duty segment is preferred in urban areas due to its easy maneuverability with moderate operating distance.
With electrification in the anvil, the focus on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to gain prominence as safety norms for school buses in North America are more advanced compared to other markets; and while the telematics market for school buses is poised to grow, there is an expectation for safer school transportation and reducing operation costs through fleet management solutions. The revision of existing school bus safety standards in markets like India and China will likely ensure the introduction of new technology safety systems, which further contribute to the preference for regulated school bus usage over other forms of transport.
Table of Contents
Strategic Imperatives
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative 8™
- The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global School Bus Market
- Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Study Scope
- Scope of Analysis
- Product and Technology Segmentation
Growth Environment
- Primary Highlights of the Global School Bus Industry in 2022
- Global Trends will Influence the Future of the School Bus Market (2023 to 2030)
- Snapshot of the Global School Bus Market by Region in 2030
Growth Opportunity Analysis
- Primary Findings: Global School Bus Market
- Global School Bus Unit Sales by Region
- Key Global Growth Metrics
- Main Forecast Criteria
- Growth Drivers
- Growth Restraints
- Unit Sales Forecast
- Forecast Discussion
School Bus Market: North America
- Regional Snapshot: North America
- Key Growth Metrics: North America
- Unit Sales Forecast: North America
- Powertrain Forecast: North America
- HD Powertrain Forecast: North America
- MD Powertrain Forecast: North America
- LD Powertrain Forecast: North America
- Forecast Discussion: North America
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
- OEM Profile: Blue Bird Corporation
- OEM Profile: Thomas Built Buses
Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: North America
- Telematics Systems Favorability: North America
- Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: North America
Total Cost of Ownership: North America
- Total Cost of Ownership: Parameters and Assumptions
- Total Cost of Ownership: North American Diesel, NG, and ESB Operational Cost per Mile Comparison
ESB Overview: North America
- Electric School Bus: Vehicle 2 Grid (V2G) Overview-North America
- Electric School Bus (ESB) Specifications: North America
- ESB Incentives: North America
School Bus Market: China
- Regional Snapshot: China
- Key Growth Metrics: China
- Unit Sales Forecast: China
- Powertrain Forecast: China
- HD Powertrain Forecast: China
- MD Powertrain Forecast: China
- LD Powertrain Forecast: China
- Forecast Discussion: China
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China
- OEM Profile: Yutong Bus
- OEM Profile: Zhongtong Bus
Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: China
- Telematics Systems Favorability: China
- Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: China
School Bus Market: India
- Regional Snapshot: India
- Key Growth Metrics: India
- Unit Sales Forecast: India
- Powertrain Forecast: India
- HD Powertrain Forecast: India
- MD Powertrain Forecast: India
- LD Powertrain Forecast: India
- Forecast Discussion: India
- OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India
- OEM Profile: Tata Motors
- OEM Profile: Ashok Leyland
Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: India
- Telematics Systems Favorability: India
- Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: India
Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1: Action Toward Zero-emission School Transportation in Developing Markets
- Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Charging Ecosystem for ESBs and Focus on V2G Systems
- Growth Opportunity 3: Advanced Safety and Telematics Solutions for Safer and Profitable School Transportation
Next Steps
- Your Next Steps
- Why Frost, Why Now?
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
