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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1319198
全球校车市场战略机会Strategic Opportunities in the Global School Bus Market |
需求復苏和持续电气化努力推动增长
Frost & Sullivan 这份关于全球校车行业的研究报告深入分析了增长环境、全球趋势以及按地区细分的校车行业的广泛研究。
随着疫情后市场需求的恢復,老化车辆的更新换代有助于增长,全球校车行业预计将增长4.1%。到 2022 年,校车总出货量将达到 59,346 辆,其中北美(美国和加拿大合计)领先,为 40,556 辆,其次是印度(13,659 辆)和中国(5,131 辆)。
在美国,拜登政府推出了“清洁校车”(CSB)计划,作为两党基础设施法案的一部分,旨在用低排放气体、零排放的公交车取代目前的化石燃料公交车。美国环境保护署 (EPA) 即将推出温室气体 (GHG) 第三阶段计划,制定更严格的排放标准,这项联邦计划的好处对于环境和学童的健康至关重要。这些因素将决定北美电动校车的增长,并在 2030 年实现显着的市场渗透。在中国,电气化高度依赖政府,因为安全是学校交通考虑的主要因素。同样,在印度,如果政府针对该行业的激励措施变得更加具体,电动校车的数量可能会增加。
2022 年的俄罗斯-乌克兰战争影响了天然气价格,但天然气动力传动系统作为电力的替代品预计将获得发展动力。北美已经为丙烷(也称为液化天然气 (LNG))提供激励措施,并被纳入 CSB 计划的低排放气体类别。在印度,压缩天然气 (CNG) 校车比柴油更具成本效益,因此越来越多地由OEM供应。
从细分市场分类来看,2022年,中型客车将占据整个校车行业的67.4%,引领市场,小型客车将达到26.2%,大型客车将占据6.5%的市场。中型校车将继续主导市场,因为它们提供更高的载客量和最佳的运营效率。小巴在都市区是首选,因为它们易于操纵且距离适中。
此外,虽然校车远程信息处理市场正在增长,但预计可以通过更安全的学校交通和车队管理解决方案来降低运营成本。印度和中国等市场正在修订现有的校车安全标准,以确保引入新技术安全系统,并有利于使用法规的校车而不是其他交通方式。
A Recovering Demand and Ongoing Electrification Efforts Bolster Growth
This Frost & Sullivan report on the global school bus industry provides an in-depth analysis of the growth environment, global trends, and an extensive examination of the school bus space segmented by region.
The global school bus industry is expected to grow at a 4.1% rate as market demand experiences a rebound after the pandemic, with replacement for aging fleets contributing to growth. In 2022, the total school bus shipments rose to 59,346 units, and the largest share went to North America (combining the United States and Canada), with 40,556 school buses sold in 2022, followed by India with 13,659 buses and China with 5,131 buses.
In the United States, the introduction of the 'Clean School Bus' (CSB) program as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law by the Biden administration aims to replace current fossil fuel buses with low- and zero-emission buses. The benefits of this federal program are paramount to both the environment and the health of school children, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will introduce the Green House Gases (GHG) phase 3 program with stricter emission norms. These factors will determine the growth of electric school buses in North America, with significant market penetration by 2030. In China, electrification will largely depend on the government, as safety is the main factor it considers in school transportation. Similarly, electric school buses will gain ground in India if the government incentives are structured specifically for this segment.
As an alternative to electric, the natural gas powertrain will gain momentum, although natural gas prices have been affected by the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. North America already provides incentives for propane, also known as liquefied natural gas (LNG), and it is included in the CSB program under the low-emission category. In India, compressed natural gas (CNG) school bus offerings see boosting from OEMs as CNG is cost-effective compared to diesel.
Regarding segment classification, in 2022, medium-duty buses led the market with 67.4% out of the total school bus industry, light-duty buses reached 26.2%, while heavy-duty constituted 6.5% of the market. Medium-duty school buses will continue to dominate the market as they offer higher seating capacity with optimal efficiency in operations. The light-duty segment is preferred in urban areas due to its easy maneuverability with moderate operating distance.
With electrification in the anvil, the focus on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to gain prominence as safety norms for school buses in North America are more advanced compared to other markets; and while the telematics market for school buses is poised to grow, there is an expectation for safer school transportation and reducing operation costs through fleet management solutions. The revision of existing school bus safety standards in markets like India and China will likely ensure the introduction of new technology safety systems, which further contribute to the preference for regulated school bus usage over other forms of transport.