欧洲重型电动卡车市场的成长机会

区域交通中电动车的采用确保了重型电动卡车销售的未来成长潜力

世界各国正向低碳经济转型。作为这一转变的一部分，电动车的采用正在不断增加，随着电动车采用市场的成熟以及更多电动车的商用，预计到 2025 年后将继续快速普及。

在欧洲，向零排放车辆过渡是低排放出行策略的关键要素。市政府和地方政府透过为低排放气体车辆提供奖励和部署充电基础设施，在这项转型中发挥至关重要的作用。政府的奖励和计划，例如德国的电动车指令、法国的充电资金筹措和西班牙的高效移动和永续移动激励 (MOVES) II 计划，促进了电气化和充电基础设施的发展。

OEM将都市区物流、垃圾收集和区域交通视为电气化的潜在用例。随着固体锂和锂硫技术可能从 2027 年开始商业化，即使成本下降，电池能量密度和循环寿命也预计会提高。燃料电池技术在功率密度和耐用性方面正在逐渐提高。

由于电池价格预计从 2025 年起将大幅下降，电动卡车的 TCO 将因油价波动和维护成本降低而变得更加有利。由于有吸引力的电池和卡车租赁选择以及充电基础设施的改善而降低的拥有成本将鼓励轻型车队转向电动车。

该研究重点关注商用车市场，特别是 GVWR 超过 16 吨的重型商用车。我们也进行 TCO 分析，以检验这些因素对中型和重型电力领域的影响。

目录

策略要务

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 关键策略要务对电动卡车的影响
• 成长机会推动Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

成长环境

• 影响电动卡车成长的主要趋势
• 中型和大型电动卡车：区域贡献
• OEM电动化应用重点

调查范围

• 调查范围
• 分割
• 成长指标
• 生长促进因子
• 成长抑制因素
• 预测标准

成长机会分析：电动巴士

• 大型销售预测（按地区），欧洲
• 影响电气化的主要因素
• 影响分析：法律因素
• 影响分析：经济因素
• 影响分析：基础设施因素
• 影响分析：技术因素
• 重型电动卡车电气化用例
• 销量和电动车普及预测
• 出货量预测
• 重型卡车动力传动系统预测
• 能耗预测
• 欧洲重型电动卡车收益预测
• OEM的马达类型映射
• 按OEM型号映射电池容量

成长机会分析：德国

• 成长指标
• 出货量预测
• 能耗预测
• 预测分析

成长机会分析：法国

• 成长指标
• 出货量预测
• 能耗预测
• 预测分析

成长机会分析：义大利

• 成长指标
• 出货量预测
• 能耗预测
• 预测分析

成长机会分析：西班牙

• 成长指标
• 出货量预测
• 能耗预测
• 预测分析

成长机会分析：英国

• 成长指标
• 出货预测
• 能耗预测
• 预测分析

公司简介

• DAF Trucks NV：策略与发展蓝图
• AB 沃尔沃：策略与发展蓝图
• 雷诺卡车：战略与发展蓝图
• 戴姆勒卡车股份公司：策略与发展蓝图
• IVECO SpA：策略与发展蓝图
• Traton-MAN：战略与发展蓝图
• Traton-Scania：策略与发展蓝图

TCO 分析，欧洲

• TCO 分析：关键假设
• TCO

ZEV 生命週期二氧化碳排放评估，重型卡车，欧洲

• 重型卡车运行特性和用户週期概述
• 大型卡车生命週期二氧化碳排放评估

成长机会宇宙

• 成长机会1：开发专用电动平台
• 成长机会2：充电基础设施
• 成长机会三：附加价值服务

附录

下一步

EV Adoption in Regional Haulage to Ensure Future Growth Potential of HD Electric Truck Sales

Countries across the world are moving toward a low-carbon economy. Electric vehicle adoption is gaining traction as a part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market for EV adoption matures and more EVs become available for commercial sale.

In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure. Government incentives and programs, such as the electromobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.

OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. Battery energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better at power density and durability.

Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift to electric vehicles.

The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market, particularly HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Trucks
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Key Trends Influencing the Growth of Electric Trucks
• Electric MD-HD Trucks: Regional Contribution
• OEM Electrification Application Focus

Study Scope

• Research Scope
• Segmentation
• Growth Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Forecast Criteria

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus

• HD Sales Forecast by Region, Europe
• Main Factors Impacting Electrification
• Impact Analysis: Legislative Factors
• Impact Analysis: Economic Factors
• Impact Analysis: Infrastructure Factors
• Impact Analysis: Technological Factors
• Electrification Use Cases for HD Electric Trucks
• Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Powertrain Split Forecast for HD Trucks
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Revenue Forecast for HD Electric Trucks, Europe
• Motor Type Mapping by OEM
• Battery Capacity Mapping by OEM Model

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Germany

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: France

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Italy

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Spain

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: UK

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Company Profiles

• DAF Trucks N.V: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• AB Volvo: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Renault Trucks: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Daimler Truck AG: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• IVECO S.p.A: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Traton-MAN: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Traton-Scania: Strategy and Development Roadmap

TCO Analysis, Europe

• TCO Analysis: Key Assumptions
• Total Cost of Ownership

Lifecycle CO2 Emission Assessment of ZEVs, HDT Europe

• HDT Operational Characteristics and User Cycle Overview
• Total HDT Lifecycle CO2 Emissions Assessment

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Dedicated Electric Platform Development
• Growth Opportunity 2: Electric Charging Infrastructure
• Growth Opportunity 3: Value-added Services

Appendix

• Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer