2024 年全球製药业展望

日益激烈的竞争推动製药业数位化，创造独特的成长机会

Frost & Sullivan 识别并定义了塑造全球製药业的主要趋势。研究期间为2021-2028年，其中2023年为基准年，2024-2028年为预测期。地理范围为北美、拉丁美洲和加勒比海、亚太、欧洲、中东和非洲五个地区。

2024年，景气衰退和持续通膨仍将是製药业面临的紧迫挑战，影响投资收益。製药公司可能会继续转向本地供应商而不是全球供应商，以确保地理位置接近性和更顺畅、更可靠的供应链。

目录

分析师亮点

• 强调
• 2024 年的主要预测

全球製药业的转型

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 关键策略要务措施对全球製药业的影响

生态系统

• 细分和范围
• 关键产业主题

产业动态

• 趋势一：生医产业併购增多
• 趋势二：精准医疗日益受到关注
• 趋势三：RWE整合医药研发进展
• 全球製药业—研发支出展望
• 全球药物开发平臺（依开发阶段）
• 主要治疗领域的展望

宏观经济因素

成长要素

• 全球製药业 - 历史销售与预测
• 部门业绩 - 过去的销售和预测
• 按地区分類的收益预测
• 按地区分類的收益预测分析
• 区域监管趋势 - 北美
• 区域监管趋势 - 欧洲
• 区域监管趋势 – 亚太地区
• 区域监管趋势 - 亚太地区、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区、中东和非洲

预测，2024 年

• 预测1
• 预测2
• 预测3
• 预测4
• 预测5

生长发生器：小分子

• 简介 - 2024
• 值得关注的公司

成长动力：生技药品

• 简介 - 2024
• 值得关注的公司

成长机会宇宙

• 成长机会1：透过公私合营模式拓展亚太地区的精准肿瘤学
• 成长机会 2：利用新兴生物技术平台标靶化未经处理的蛋白质
• 成长机会 3：开发药物发现和开发的敏捷合作伙伴模型

最佳实践意识

弗罗斯特雷达

下一步

Growing Competitive Intensity is Driving Pharma Digitization, Building Unique Growth Opportunities

Frost & Sullivan identifies and defines the leading trends shaping the global pharmaceutical landscape in this analysis. The study period is 2021-2028, with 2023 as the base year and 2024-2028 as the forecast period. The geographic scope includes 5 regions: North America, Latin America (LATAM) and the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific (APAC), Europe, and the Middle East and Africa. Chemicals/Small molecules and biologics are the 2 segments covered.

Other information covered include:

• Pharmaceutical industry overview
• Revenue forecasts by segment
• The top 5 predictions for 2024 and beyond
• Macro and micro trends driving the industry's future
• R&D expenditure and leading therapeutic areas
• Growth opportunities

After a plateaued growth in 2023 due to the biologics segment slowdown and a decrease in the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics, the industry will likely realign its growth to record a 5.9% CAGR between 2023 and 2028. Year-on-year (YoY) growth will remain low in developed economies, including the United States and Europe. In contrast, emerging economies in APAC, LATAM, and the rest of the world will register comparatively stronger single-digit YoY growth.

The recession and ongoing inflation will remain pressing challenges for the pharmaceutical industry in 2024, affecting returns on investment. Pharmaceutical companies will continue to shift toward regional rather than global suppliers to ensure geographic proximity and a smoother, more reliable supply chain.

There continues to be a strong focus on environmental, social, and governance commitments and supply-chain digitalization through lighthouse manufacturing techniques, decentralized clinical trial approaches, and the application of artificial intelligence. The industry is also witnessing a healthy mergers and acquisitions landscape, with several successful transactions recently. In addition, Frost & Sullivan expects a rebound in initial public offerings (IPOs), with 5 IPOs completed by February 2024.

Table of Contents

Analyst Highlights

• Highlights
• Top Predictions for 2024

Transformation in the Global Pharmaceutical Industry

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global Pharmaceutical Industry

Ecosystem

• Segmentation and Scope
• Key Industry Themes

Industry Trends

• Trend 1: Increasing M&As in Biopharma
• Trend 2: Higher Focus on Precision Medicine
• Trend 3: More RWE Integration in Drug R&D
• Global Pharmaceutical Industry-R&D Expenditure Outlook
• Global Drug Development Pipeline by Development Phase
• Key Therapeutic Area Outlook

Macroeconomic Factors

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth-Global Growth will See a Mild Slowdown from 3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Major Economies Lose Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates-Headline Inflation will Continue to Decline. H2 2024 will Shift Toward Rate Cuts for Advanced Economies
• Currency Trajectory-The Dollar will Remain Strong in H1 2024. Emerging Market Currencies will Receive a Boost From Q3 2024
• Oil Markets-OPEC+ will Cut Oil Production in Q1. Non-OPEC Production will Increase
• Labor Market-Unemployment will See a Moderate Uptick. Positive Expectations Over Market Sentiment will Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Mineral Supplies-The Need for Economic Resiliency will Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America-The Region will See an Economic Slowdown Amidst a Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe-The Region will See a Moderate Growth Pick-up as Inflation Headwinds Ease. Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers will Take Precedence
• The Middle East-Economic Diversification will Drive Non-oil Growth to Limit the Pullback From a Slowdown in Global oil Markets
• Asia-Emerging Economies will Drive Growth Momentum. Fiscal Measures will Support CHINESE Economic Recovery
• High Inflation and Global Recession
• Intensification of Supply Chain Resilience Strategies
• Sustainability Across the Pharma Value Chain

Growth Generator

• Global Pharmaceutical Industry-Historic Sales and Forecast
• Segment Performance-Historic Sales and Forecast
• Revenue Forecast by Region
• Revenue Forecast Analysis by Region
• Regional Regulatory Trends-North America
• Regional Regulatory Trends-Europe
• Regional Regulatory Trends-APAC
• Regional Regulatory Trends-APAC, LATAM, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Africa

Predictions for 2024

• Prediction 1
• Prediction 2
• Prediction 3
• Prediction 4
• Prediction 5

Growth Generator: Small Molecules

• Small Molecules Snapshot-2024
• Small-molecule Companies to Watch

Growth Generator: Biologics

• Biologics Snapshot-2024
• Biologics Companies to Watch

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Scale Precision Oncology in Asia-Pacific Through Public-private Partnership Models
• Growth Opportunity 2: Target Undruggable Proteins with Emerging Biotech Platforms
• Growth Opportunity 3: Develop Agile Partnership Models for Drug Discovery and Development

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Take the Next Step
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer