2024 年全球电动车 (EV) 成长前景预测

由于OEM价格竞争，电动车（EV）产业面临成长放缓

Frost & Sullivan 的这份分析根据最新的行业资料对电动车 (EV) 行业进行了研究，概述了当前趋势，详细分析了未来的发展，并详细分析了该行业的主要相关人员及其表现。 。

2023年，电动车销量将总合1,410万辆，其中纯电动车占70.2%，插电式混合占29.8%。 2022年燃料电池电动车销量将维持不变，占电动车总销量的比例不到0.1%。到2022年，全球电动车渗透率将从13%增加到16%。亚太地区 (APAC) 的小型车市场渗透率全球最高，达 23%。

未来电动车的重要趋势包括在量产电动车中引入钠离子和固态电池、超级广播、电动车价格下降、人工智慧的使用、V2G相容车辆的开发以及电池维修和更换的机会。主要OEM已正式宣布采用替代和先进的电池化学材料，包括钠离子和固态电池。电动车製造商正在探索千兆广播领域，并考虑到经济实惠的电动车策略，但采用尚未广泛。

全球电动车销量预计将达到1850万辆，与前一年同期比较31.1%。成长速度将放缓，主要是由于欧洲对奖励的审查。预计到年终，充电桩安装数量将超过520万个，每12辆电动车就有1个充电连接器。全球电动车在轻型车领域的渗透率将达到 20%，这标誌着该产业的里程碑。随着比亚迪扩大在欧洲和亚洲新兴市场（日本、印度、泰国）的业务，比亚迪将保持领先地位，利润率将高于 2023 年。在电池市场，宁德时代仍处于领先地位，比亚迪紧随其后，电池产能约为945,000兆瓦/小时。

目录

分析亮点

• 电动车 (EV) 亮点：2023 年和 2024 年的热门预测
• 2023 年和 2024 年全球电动车市场概览
• 电动车的成长与采用：十大市场
• 电动车的成长和采用：主要OEM
• 电动汽车电池概述
• 电动车的成长和采用：主要OEM
• 电动车充电基础设施发展：前 5 个市场

策略要务

• 为什么成长如此困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 关键策略要务措施对电动车产业的影响
• 成长机会推动Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

调查范围和细分

• 调查范围
• 电动车细分

2024 年世界经济展望

• 2024 年十大趋势
• 十大成长机会
• 世界GDP成长率
• 通货膨胀和利率
• 外汇走势：
• 石油市场
• 劳动市场
• 关键矿产供应
• 北美洲
• 西欧
• 中东
• 亚洲

未来的趋势

• 2024 年电动车市场的主要趋势
• 钠离子电池和固态电池进入电动车大众市场
• 电动车製造中的千兆广播
• 电动车价格下降
• 电动车充电中的人工智慧
• V2G相容车辆
• 电池维修和更换

电动车市场概况及 2024 年预测：欧洲

• 电动车亮点：2023/2024
• 欧洲电动车市场：2023/2024
• 电动车的成长与渗透率：主要国家
• 电动车的成长和渗透：主要OEM
• 未来10年欧洲动力传动系统结构

电动车市场概况与 2024 年预测：美洲

• 电动车亮点：2023/2024
• 美洲电动车市场：2023/2024
• 电动车的成长与渗透率：主要国家
• 电动车的成长和渗透：主要OEM
• 美国未来10年的动力传动系统结构

电动车市场概况及 2024 年预测：中国

• 电动车亮点：2023/2024
• 中国电动车市场：2023/2024
• 电动车的成长和采用：主要OEM
• 中国未来10年的动力传动系统总成结构

电动车市场概况及 2024 年预测：亚太地区（不包括中国）

• 电动车亮点：2023/2024
• 亚太地区（不包括中国）电动车市场：2023/2024
• 电动车的成长与渗透率：主要国家
• 电动车的成长和采用：主要OEM
• 亚太地区（不包括中国）未来10年的动力传动系统结构

电动车市场概况及 2024 年预测：中东和非洲

• 电动车亮点：2023/2024
• 中东/非洲电动车市场：2023/2024
• 电动车的成长与渗透率：主要国家
• 电动车的成长和渗透：主要OEM

成长机会宇宙

• 成长机会1：电动车价格与奖励前价格一致并与传统汽车竞争
• 成长机会 2：进军电动车新兴市场
• 成长机会 3：第一代电动车中的电动车电池修復与更换

结论

下一步

The Electric Vehicle Industry Will Suffer Growth Deceleration as OEMs Fight a Price War

This Frost & Sullivan analysis provides an outlook for the electric vehicle (EV) industry based on the latest industry data, an outline of current trends, an in-depth examination of future developments, and a breakdown of the main stakeholders in the sector and their performance.

EV sales in 2023 amounted to a total of 14.1 million, of which 70.2% were battery EVs and 29.8% were plug-in hybrid EVs. Fuel-cell EV sales remained the same as in 2022, constituting less than 0.1% of the total EV sales. Global EV penetration increased from 13% in 2022 to 16% in 2022. Asia-Pacific (APAC) has the highest penetration globally, with 23% in the light-duty vehicle segment.

Crucial upcoming EV trends include the introduction of sodium-ion and solid-state batteries in mass-market EVs, gigacasting, falling EV prices, usage of AI, development of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) compatible vehicles, and opportunities in battery repair and replacement. Key OEMs have officially announced the adoption of alternate and advanced battery chemistries, such as sodium ion and solid-state batteries. EV manufacturers are exploring the gigacasting space, considering their affordable EV strategy; however, adoption is not widespread yet.

Due to the discontinuation of incentives, OEMs are forced to lower EV prices to keep up with demand and compete with conventional vehicles. Most markets have either reduced or discontinued cash incentives on EVs. Battery management systems (BMS) and analytics, EV battery second life, and testing and validation will leverage AI and digitization. The development of V2G-compatible vehicles spearheads technological progress and is a priority because next-generation charging infrastructure will demand V2G-compatible vehicles.

EV sales will reach an estimated 18.5 million units globally with a 31.1% year-over-year growth. The pace of this growth will decelerate due to the revision of incentives, mainly in Europe. Charging point installations will surpass 5.2 million by the end of the year, with an estimated ratio of one charging connector for 12 EVs. The global EV penetration will reach 20% penetration in the light-duty vehicle segment, a milestone for the industry. BYD will retain the leadership with a higher margin than in 2023 as it expands its presence in Europe and emerging Asian markets (Japan, India, and Thailand). The battery market will supply approximately 945,000 megawatts/hour of battery capacity and, in this market, CATL will remain the leader, followed by BYD.

Table of Contents

Analysis Highlights

• Electric Vehicle Highlights: 2023 and Top Predictions for 2024
• Global EV Market Overview, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Top 10 Markets
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• EV Battery Overview
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• EV Charging Infrastructure Development: Top 5 Markets

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the EV Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Research Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• EV Segmentation

2024 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth: Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Economies Lose Growth Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Headline Inflation will Continue to Decline; H2 2024 will Shift Towards Rate Cuts for Advanced ECONOMIES
• Currency Trajectory: Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; Emerging Market Currencies to Get Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
• OIL Markets: Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; NON-OPEC Production to Rise
• Labor Market: Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Minerals Supplies: Need for ECONOMIC Resiliency Will Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America: Economic Slowdown AMIDST Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe: Moderate Growth Pick-up as Inflation Headwinds Ease Gradually; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
• Middle East: Non-oil Growth Driven by Economic Diversification to Limit the Pullback Caused by a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
• Asia: Emerging Economies to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery

Upcoming Trends

• Key Trends in the EV Market for 2024
• Na-ion and Solid-state Batteries Enter the EV Mass Market
• Gigacasting in EV Manufacturing
• Falling EV Prices
• AI in EV Charging
• V2G-compatible Vehicles
• Battery Repair and Replacement

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: Europe

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• European EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The European Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: Americas

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• Americas EV Market, 2023 And 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The US Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: China

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• Chinese EV Market: 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The Chinese Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: APAC (excluding China)

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• APAC EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The APAC Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: MEA

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• MEA EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: EV Pricing Will Match Pre-incentive Prices and Compete with Conventional Vehicles
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion into EV Emerging Markets
• Growth Opportunity 3: EV Battery Repair and Replacement for First-generation EVs

Conclusions

• Conclusions and Future Outlook

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer