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EV的各地区预测 - 北美
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1745110

EV的各地区预测 - 北美

EV Geographic Forecast - North America
出版日期: | 出版商: Guidehouse Research | 英文 66 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

价格
简介目录

近年来，北美插电式电动车 (PEV) 销量持续成长，并在 2024 年创下历史新高。儘管如此，由于通货膨胀率上升和原材料成本的长期波动，需求低于预期。因此，一些汽车製造商重新评估了其电气化计划。然而，由于 "2021 年基础设施与就业法案" 和 "2022 年通膨削减法案" 的投资将有助于提高产能，并降低 PEV 的初始成本（预计电池组成本将下降），预计 PEV 在北美汽车市场将继续增长。

在新一届美国政府的领导下，支持 PEV 成长的政策环境可能会面临重大变化。新政府已表示打算终止 PEV 和电动车供电设备 (EVSE) 供应链的联邦资助，以及提高燃油效率的政策。对汽车、汽车零件、半导体和钢铁征收的关税，以及对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴征收的一般关税，预计也将对北美汽车产业造成重大衝击。

该报告分析了电动车技术、创新、激励措施、政策和车辆供应情况，并预测了美国和加拿大在国家、州或省以及地区或区域层面的纯电动车渗透率。该预测受电池组和技术创新、燃油价格、车型供应以及零排放汽车 (ZEV) 法规的影响。报告涵盖乘用车和轻型卡车细分市场，以及纯电动车 (BEV)、插电式混合动力电动车 (PHEV) 和混合动力电动车 (HEV) 等动力系统分类。 EVSE 采用预测按技术（1 级 [L1]、2 级 [L2]、直流快速充电器）和用例（车队、公共设施、多住宅单元 (MUD)、单住宅单元 (SUD)、SUD 共享住宅和工作场所）细分。

目录

第1章 摘要整理

  • 简介
  • 市场预测

第2章 市场问题

  • 简介
  • 推动市场要素，阻碍因素，最新资讯
    • 电池组的价格
    • 燃料价格
    • 汽车OEM PEV投资
    • 模式的可得性
    • PEV政策环境
    • EVSE政策环境

第3章 产业价值链

  • 竞争情形
  • 价值链的图解
  • 经营模式的演进
    • 陆上生产
    • 供应链的整合
  • 其他的值得注意的产业趋势

第4章 预测调查手法

  • 车辆分析及模拟工具模式概要
    • 长期市占率：动力总成竞争
    • 基础设施发展与车辆普及
    • 车辆销售预测与模型校准
    • 地理特异性
  • VAST充电器安装模组概要

第5章 市场预测

  • 简介
  • 美国
    • PEV预测
    • EVSE预测
    • 各州预测
    • 前十名城市圈
  • 加拿大
    • PEV预测
    • EVSE预测
    • 加拿大的各州预测
    • 前十名城市圈

第6章 结论·建议

  • 3个大的要点
  • 推荐事项
    • 汽车厂商
    • 政府
    • 电池厂商
    • EVSE供应商，业者，厂商
    • 公共事业

第7章 缩写与简称一览

第8章 目录

第9章 图表

第10章 范围，资讯来源，调查手法，註记

简介目录
Product Code: MF-EVGNA-25

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) have continued to increase in North America during recent years, with 2024 sales setting a new high. Despite this growth, demand was weaker than expected due to higher inflation and lingering volatility in the cost of raw materials. As a result, some automakers reevaluated their electrification plans. However, PEVs are expected to continue to be a growing piece of the North American vehicle market due to increases in production capacity spurred by investments from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act of 2021 and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and from an expected decrease in battery pack costs, which are likely to reduce the upfront cost of PEVs.

The policy environment that has helped PEV growth is likely to face significant change under the new U.S. administration, which has indicated plans to end policies that improve fuel efficiency as well as federal funding for PEV and EV supply equipment (EVSE) supply chains. Tariffs introduced on automobiles, auto parts, semiconductors, and steel, along with general tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, are also expected to cause significant disruption to the North American auto industry.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology, innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the U.S. and Canada on the national, state or province, and sub-state or sub-province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck segmentation in addition to powertrain breakouts by battery EVs (BEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and hybrid EVs (HEVs). Forecasts for EVSE deployments are segmented by technology (Level 1 [L1], Level 2 [L2], and DC fast chargers) and use cases, including fleet, public, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwellings (SUD), SUD-shared residences, and workplace.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Market Drivers, Barriers, and Updates
    • 2.2.1 Battery Pack Prices
    • 2.2.2 Fuel Prices
    • 2.2.3 Automotive OEM PEV Investment
    • 2.2.4 Model Availability
    • 2.2.5 PEV Policy Environment
      • 2.2.5.1 Incentives
      • 2.2.5.2 Regulations
      • 2.2.5.3 Tariffs
    • 2.2.6 EVSE Policy Environment

3. Industry Value Chain

  • 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.2 Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain
  • 3.3 Business Model Evolution
    • 3.3.1 Onshoring Production
    • 3.3.2 Supply Chain Consolidation
  • 3.4 Other Notable Industry Developments

4. Forecast Methodology

  • 4.1 Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview
    • 4.1.1 Long-Run Market Share: Competition Between Powertrains
    • 4.1.2 Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption
    • 4.1.3 Vehicle Sales Forecasts and Model Calibration
    • 4.1.4 Geographic Specificity
  • 4.2 The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

5. Market Forecasts

  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.2 U.S.
    • 5.2.1 PEV Forecasts
    • 5.2.2 EVSE Forecasts
    • 5.2.3 State Forecasts
    • 5.2.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas
  • 5.3 Canada
    • 5.3.1 PEV Forecasts
    • 5.3.2 EVSE Forecasts
    • 5.3.3 Canadian Province Forecasts
    • 5.3.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

  • 6.1 Three Big Takeaways
  • 6.2 Recommendations
    • 6.2.1 Automakers
    • 6.2.2 Governments
    • 6.2.3 Battery Manufacturers
    • 6.2.4 EVSE Suppliers, Operators, and Manufacturers
    • 6.2.5 Utilities

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope, Sources, Methodology, and Notes