2024-2030年中国自动驾驶乘用车市场

自动驾驶导航加速自动驾驶的转变

自动驾驶汽车可以部分辅助或完全自动驾驶，它们透过整合人工智慧 (AI)、电脑视觉、雷达系统、监控设备和 GPS 来运作。

中国自动驾驶市场正处于快速成长阶段，市场渗透率位居全球前列。本研究采用L0-L5分级体系，分析自动驾驶技术在中国新乘用车市场的渗透率。

在中国新乘用车市场，L3级自动驾驶技术由于法规约束和技术限制尚未实现商业化，具备L4级自动驾驶能力的车辆仍然较少，因此本研究主要关注L3级以下的自动驾驶解决方案。

本研究检验了中国国内主要目标商标产品製造商 (OEM)、电动车 OEM、新兴企业和国际 OEM 提供的自动驾驶解决方案。

分析范围

• 自动驾驶汽车可能需要部分驾驶辅助，也可能完全自动驾驶。这些汽车透过协调整合人工智慧 (AI)、电脑视觉、雷达系统、监控设备和 GPS 来运作。
• 中国自动驾驶市场正经历快速成长，市场渗透率位居全球前列。本研究采用L0-L5级自动驾驶汽车分类体系，分析中国新乘用车市场对自动驾驶技术的采用情况，并深入分析L0-L3级自动驾驶汽车市场。
• 由于法规约束和技术限制，L3级自动驾驶技术在中国新乘用车市场尚未商业化落地，搭载L4级自动驾驶能力的车辆仍凤毛麟角。因此，本研究主要关注L3级以下的自动驾驶解决方案，特别是中国OEM自动驾驶解决方案的市场现况。
• 本研究专注于乘用车 ADAS 市场，检验中国国内主要 OEM、电动车 OEM、新兴企业和国际 OEM 提供的自动驾驶解决方案。

三大策略要务对自动驾驶产业的影响

创新经营模式

• 为什么
• 中国乘用车市场正向电动化和智慧转型。为了适应这项转型，传统汽车厂商必须重新定义收益来源。中国自动驾驶市场的崛起凸显了这些新经营模式的重要性。
• 自动驾驶可能会再形成消费者的期望，包括个人化服务和共用出行，从而推动乘用车 ADAS 市场的成长。
• 弗罗斯特的观点
• 共享出行在中国的日常交通中扮演着关键角色，创新的经营模式（如自动驾驶叫车服务）可以帮助原始设备製造商抓住共享经济的成长机会，尤其是在 L0-L3 自动驾驶汽车市场。
• 汽车製造商可以利用营运数据提供附加价值服务（例如即时导航和交通资讯），并与政府合作推动智慧城市计画。

颠覆性技术

• 为什么：
• 人工智慧演算法、感测系统、高清地图等颠覆性技术正在改变汽车产业的竞争格局。这些技术将显着提升自动驾驶系统的安全性和可靠性，从而推动其在中国乘用车市场的广泛应用，并影响中国自动驾驶汽车交易金额的预测。
• 弗罗斯特的观点
• 百度、华为、阿里巴巴等中国科技巨头已成为自动驾驶创新的关键参与者，推动中国自动驾驶市场的发展。
• 颠覆性技术的发展需要与快速发展的法律规范相协调。

地缘政治混乱

• 为什么：
• 地缘政治不确定性，包括美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势以及半导体法规，对汽车供应链构成了重大挑战，高端晶片和感测器尤其容易受到衝击。
• 弗罗斯特的观点
• 中国汽车原始设备製造商和科技公司应优先考虑供应链多元化，以降低地缘政治风险。增加对国内晶片生产的投资对于减少对海外供应商的依赖并确保长期韧性至关重要。

驱动程式

• 中国政府正透过强而有力的政策支持和法律规范推动自动驾驶的发展。 「中国製造2025」等计画正聚焦在智慧电动车领域，尤其是自动驾驶和纯电动车（BEV）。这些倡议将为产业发展提供指南和政策支持，并将影响中国自动驾驶市场的成长。
• 随着都市化以及人们对环境问题的日益关注，中国对智慧出行解决方案的需求日益增长。自动驾驶汽车是缓解大城市交通拥堵和污染的潜在解决方案。例如，百度Apollo Go已在11个城市进行载人测试和营运服务。 Apollo Go正朝着成为全球最大的自动驾驶出行服务提供者的目标迈进，巩固其在L0-L3自动驾驶汽车市场的地位。
• 百度、华为、阿里巴巴、腾讯等中国科技巨头正大力投资人工智慧和机器学习，这正在加速自动驾驶技术的发展，提高自动驾驶系统的安全性和可靠性，这也将对乘用车ADAS市场产生影响。
• 比亚迪、黑马、蔚来、理想等本土汽车品牌正快速崛起。这些品牌专注于ADAS（高级驾驶辅助系统）与自动驾驶系统的融合，尤其是L2+等级自动驾驶。这些汽车品牌通常拥有强大的自主研发能力，为自动驾驶技术的数据累积和持续改进奠定了基础，这对于中国OEM自动驾驶解决方案市场至关重要。

成长抑制因素

• 儘管政府大力推动，自动驾驶市场仍面临一定的监管和安全挑战。目前，中国缺乏统一的全国自动驾驶汽车测试和部署框架，导致各省之间存在差异，这可能会影响中国的自动驾驶市场。
• 儘管人工智慧技术正在不断发展，但实现在所有条件下安全自动驾驶所需的准确性和可靠性仍然充满挑战。中国的整体道路基础设施，尤其是农村地区，尚未完全支援自动驾驶汽车。此外，包括5G网路和车联网（V2X）通讯技术在内的智慧基础设施应用仍处于起步阶段。这些因素增加了在城市环境中实现L2+及以上自动驾驶能力的难度，尤其是考虑到中国自动驾驶汽车的GMV预测。
• 自动驾驶解决方案的开发和实施，不仅需要主机厂升级内部营运、加强研发投入，还需要交通基础设施的现代化，以支援电动化和智慧型系统。这需要主机厂、自动驾驶服务提供者、政府机构、交通部门以及相关企业之间的通力合作。然而，这种合作的成本高昂，对自动驾驶技术的广泛应用，尤其是中国主机厂自动驾驶解决方案市场的成长构成了挑战。
• 《资料安全法》和《资料安全管理暂行条例》对自动驾驶相关资料的收集、储存和使用提出了更严格的规定，要求企业确保资料安全，防止资料外洩和滥用，从而增加了合规成本。

目录

调查范围

• 分析范围
• 自动驾驶领域

自动驾驶领域的成长环境转型

• 为何成长变得越来越困难？
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• 三大策略要务对自动驾驶产业的影响

自动驾驶生态系统

• 竞争环境
• 主要竞争对手

自动驾驶领域的成长要素

• 成长指标
• 成长动力
• 成长抑制因素
• 主要发现

议程

• 预测考虑因素
• 自动驾驶汽车销售预测
• 价格趋势和收益预测分析
• 自动驾驶汽车收益与出货量预测
• 收益和预测分析
• 自动驾驶水平预测渗透率

成长动力：关键法规

• 中国自动驾驶主要法规

成长动力：关键趋势

• 推动自动驾驶产业发展的关键趋势
• 趋势一：监理与授权
• 趋势二：城市自主导航
• 趋势三：跨产业合作
• 趋势四：机器人计程车
• 趋势 5：电气/电子架构 EEA
• 趋势六：5G技术
• 趋势七：生物识别

成长动力：主要原始设备製造商的基准化分析

• 主要 OEM 厂商的基准化分析
• 案例研究：城市 NOA 中的主要 OEM
• 案例研究：加速城市新常态

成长动力：关键 OEM 策略

• 自动驾驶类别
• 各车型的自动驾驶能力：轿车
• 各车型的自动驾驶能力：SUV
• 比亚迪的自动驾驶能力
• 广汽集团自动驾驶能力
• HIMA自动驾驶可用性
• 李汽车自动驾驶可用性
• NIO 自动驾驶可用性
• 吉利自动驾驶可用性
• 小米自动驾驶可用性
• 一汽大众自动驾驶可用性
• 上汽自动驾驶可用性
• BMW自动驾驶可用性
• 梅赛德斯-奔驰自动驾驶可用性
• 特斯拉自动驾驶可用性

自动驾驶领域的成长机会

• 成长机会1：为电动车配备自动驾驶功能
• 成长机会二：SUV需求不断扩大
• 成长机会三：加速监理与政策发展

附录与后续步骤

• 成长机会的益处和影响
• 后续步骤Next steps
• 附表
• 免责声明

作者：陈明立

调查范围

分析范围

自动驾驶领域

成长环境：自动驾驶领域的转型

战略要务 8

三大策略要务对自动驾驶产业的影响

Navigate on Autopilot Accelerates the Shift Towards Autonomous Driving

An autonomous vehicle requires either partial driver assistance or may achieve fully autonomous driving. These vehicles operate through the coordinated integration of artificial intelligence (AI), computer vision, radar systems, monitoring devices, and GPS.

The autonomous driving market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with market penetration rates ranking among the highest globally. This research utilizes the L0 to L5 classification system to analyze the penetration of autonomous driving technology in China's new passenger vehicle market.

Restrained by regulatory constraints and technological limitations, L3 autonomous driving technology has not been commercialized in China's new passenger vehicle market. Vehicles equipped with L4 autonomous driving capabilities remain rare. Therefore, this research primarily focuses on autonomous driving solutions below L3 solutions.

This study examines the autonomous driving solutions provided by the leading Chinese domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), EV OEMs, start-ups, and international OEMs.

Scope of Analysis

• An autonomous vehicle requires either partial driver assistance or may achieve fully autonomous driving. These vehicles operate through the coordinated integration of artificial intelligence (AI), computer vision, radar systems, monitoring devices, and GPS.
• The autonomous driving market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with market penetration rates ranking among the highest globally in the China autonomous driving market. This research utilizes the L0 to L5 classification system to analyze the penetration of autonomous driving technology in China's new passenger vehicle market, including insights into the L0-L3 autonomous vehicle market.
• Restrained by regulatory constraints and technological limitations, L3 autonomous driving technology has not been commercialized in China's new passenger vehicle market. Vehicles equipped with L4 autonomous driving capabilities remain rare. Therefore, this research primarily focuses on autonomous driving solutions below L3 solutions, particularly in the context of the Chinese OEM autonomous driving solutions market.
• This study examines the autonomous driving solutions provided by the leading Chinese domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), EV OEMs, start-ups, and international OEMs, with special emphasis on the passenger vehicle ADAS market.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Autonomous Driving Industry

Innovative Business Models

• Why:
• The Chinese passenger vehicle market is transitioning toward electrification and smart technology. In response to the transition, traditional OEMs must redefine their revenue streams. The rise of the China autonomous driving market emphasizes the importance of these new business models.
• Autonomous driving will reshape consumer expectations, such as personalized service and shared mobility, fueling growth in the passenger vehicle ADAS market.
• Frost Perspective:
• Shared mobility plays a critical role in China's daily transportation. Innovative business models (e.g., autonomous ride-hailing services) will enable OEMs to capture growth opportunities in the share economy, particularly within the context of the L0-L3 autonomous vehicle market.
• Automotive OEMs can leverage operational data to provide value-added services (e.g., real-time navigation, traffic updates) and collaborate with governments to advance smart city initiatives.

Disruptive Technologies

• Why:
• Disruptive technologies, including AI algorithms, sensing systems, and high-definition mapping, are altering the competitive landscape of the automotive industry. These technologies can significantly enhance the safety and reliability of autonomous systems, resulting in wider adoption in the Chinese passenger vehicle market, impacting the autonomous vehicle GMV forecast China.
• Frost Perspective:
• Chinese tech giants such as Baidu, Huawei, and Alibaba are emerging as key players in autonomous driving innovation, driving advancements in the China autonomous driving market.
• The development of disruptive technologies must align with rapidly evolving regulatory frameworks.

Geopolitical Chaos

• Why:
• Geopolitical uncertainties, including US-China trade tensions and semiconductor restrictions, pose significant challenges to the automotive supply chain. High-end chips and sensors are particularly vulnerable.
• Frost Perspective:
• Chinese automotive OEMs and technology companies should prioritize supply chain diversification to mitigate geopolitical risks. Increasing investment in domestic chip production will be critical to reducing dependence on foreign suppliers and ensuring long-term resilience.

Growth Drivers

• The Chinese government promotes the development of autonomous driving through strong policy support and regulatory frameworks. Initiatives such as the Made in China 2025 plan focus on the intelligent and EV sector, especially self-driving and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). These initiatives will provide guidance and policy support for industry development, impacting the growth of the autonomous driving market in China.
• With increasing urbanization and environmental concerns, demand for smart mobility solutions in China is growing. Autonomous vehicles are potential solutions for reducing traffic congestion and pollution in major cities. For example, Baidu's Apollo Go has launched passenger testing and operational services in 11 cities. Apollo Go is becoming the world's largest autonomous driving mobility service provider, solidifying its role in the L0-L3 autonomous vehicle market.
• Chinese tech giants such as Baidu, Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent are heavily investing in AI and machine learning. These investments are accelerating the development of autonomous driving technologies, enhancing the safety and reliability of autonomous driving systems, which will impact the passenger vehicle ADAS market as well.
• Domestic automotive brands such as BYD, HIMA, NIO, and Li Auto are rapidly emerging. These brands are focusing on integrating advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving systems, especially in Level 2+ driving. These auto brands usually possess strong in-house R&D capabilities, laying the foundation for data accumulation and continuous improvement of autonomous driving technologies, crucial for the Chinese OEM autonomous driving solutions market.

Growth Restraints

• Despite the government's active propaganda, the market still faces certain regulatory and safety challenges. There is currently no unified national framework for the testing and deployment of autonomous driving vehicles in China, leading to variations across provinces that can affect the China autonomous driving market.
• Although AI technology is advancing, achieving the precision and reliability required for safe autonomous driving under all conditions remains challenging. The overall road infrastructure in China, particularly in rural areas, is not yet equipped to support autonomous driving vehicles fully. Moreover, the widespread implementation of smart infrastructure, including 5G networks and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication technology, is still in development. These factors increase the difficulty of realizing Level 2+ and above autonomous driving functions in urban environments, particularly in the context of the autonomous vehicle GMV forecast China.
• The development and implementation of autonomous driving solutions require not only internal upgrades and enhanced R&D efforts from OEMs, but also the modernization of transportation infrastructure to support electrification and intelligent systems. This requires coordinated collaboration among OEMs, autonomous driving service providers, government entities, transportation agencies, and related enterprises. However, these collaborative efforts involve substantial cost, posing challenges to the widespread adoption of autonomous driving technologies, especially relating to the growth of the Chinese OEM autonomous driving solutions market.
• The implementation of data security law and provisional regulations on data security management has led to strict regulations on the collection, storage, and use of data related to autonomous driving. These regulations require companies to ensure data security to prevent breaches and misuse, thereby increasing compliance costs.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Autonomous Driving Segmentation

Growth Environment: Transformation in Autonomous Driving Sector

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Autonomous Driving Industry

Ecosystem in Autonomous Driving Sector

• Competitive Environment
• Key Competitors

Growth Generator in Autonomous Driving Sector

• Growth Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Key Findings

Agenda

• Forecast Considerations
• Autonomous Driving Vehicle Sales Forecast
• Pricing Trends and Revenue Forecast Analysis
• Autonomous Driving Revenue and Unit Shipment Forecast
• Revenue Forecast Analysis
• Percent Penetration Forecast by Autonomous Driving Level

Growth Generator: Key Regulations

• Key Autonomous Driving Regulations in China

Growth Generator: Key Trends

• Top Trends Driving the Autonomous Driving Industry
• Trend 1: Regulations and Mandates
• Trend 2: Urban Navigate on Autopilot
• Trend 3: Cross-Industry Cooperation
• Trend 4: Robotaxi
• Trend 5: Electrical/Electronic Architecture EEA
• Trend 6: 5G Technology
• Trend 7: Biometric Recognition

Growth Generator: Benchmarking of Key OEMs

• Benchmarking of Key OEMs
• Case Study: Key OEMs in Urban NOA
• Case Study: Acceleration of Urban NOA

Growth Generator: Key OEM Strategies

• Autonomous Driving Categories
• Autonomous Driving Capability by Vehicle Segment: Sedans
• Autonomous Driving Capability by Vehicle Segment: SUVs
• BYD Autonomous Driving Availability
• GAC Group Autonomous Driving Availability
• HIMA Autonomous Driving Availability
• Li Auto Autonomous Driving Availability
• NIO Autonomous Driving Availability
• Geely Autonomous Driving Availability
• Xiaomi Autonomous Driving Availability
• FAW-VW Autonomous Driving Availability
• SAIC Autonomous Driving Availability
• BMW Autonomous Driving Availability
• Mercedes-Benz Autonomous Driving Availability
• Tesla Autonomous Driving Availability

Growth Opportunity Universe in Autonomous Driving Sector

• Growth Opportunity 1: Integration of Autonomous Features in EVs
• Growth Opportunity 2: Growing Demand for SUVs
• Growth Opportunity 3: Accelerated Advancement of Policies and Regulations

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer

Author: Ming Lih Chan

Research Scope

Scope of Analysis

Autonomous Driving Segmentation

Growth Environment: Transformation in Autonomous Driving Sector

The Strategic Imperative 8

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Autonomous Driving Industry