2024-2040年北美氢能产业的成长机会

Growth Opportunities in the North American Hydrogen Industry, 2024-2040

出版日期: 2025年10月16日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 49 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

价格

简介目录

随着传统氢气消费产业的需求趋于融合，替代氢气正逐渐成为小众市场。

《大型建筑法案》（OBBBA）的通过标誌着美国能源政策的重大转变。该法案大幅削减了《通货膨胀控制法案》（IRA）下对风能和太阳能发电的税额扣抵支持，取消了住宅清洁能源税额扣抵、节能住宅维修税额扣抵和电动车税额扣抵，同时延长了对石化燃料的支持。就美国的氢能前景而言，这项措施可能意味着绿色氢能产能的开发将受到更多限制，而支持蓝氢开发的45Q税收优惠政策将保持不变。同时，在加拿大，绿色氢能和蓝氢的税额扣抵将无限期地继续有效。近期一项针对包括美国和加拿大在内的北美地区的分析预测，到2030年，低碳氢化合物总产量将达370万吨。蓝氢主导，其次是绿色氢能、紫色氢能和生物基氢能，而美国将在其中发挥主导作用。随着市场成长日益复杂，长期财政支持将成为投资者和计划开发商实现与传统氢能成本竞争力的关键因素。在加拿大，排放强度税额扣抵有效期至2034年，但在美国，该政策仅适用于2027年12月前开工的计划。

本研究透过基于监管因素、市场进入和实体市场设计的三维评估和排名，概述了加拿大和美国如何与其各自的国家氢能策略保持一致。随后，研究分析了各种氢气商品类型的长期产量预测，概述了氢能价值链中的主要参与者以及各市场的主要承购商。

The enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks a dramatic shift in US energy policy. The OBBA significantly scales back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credit support for wind and solar power, eliminates residential clean energy credit, energy efficiency home improvement credit, and electric vehicle credits, while extending support for fossil sources of energy. For the hydrogen outlook in the US, this action means the development of green hydrogen capacity will likely become more constrained while the 45Q support blue hydrogen development remains unchanged. Meanwhile, in Canada, tax credits for green as well as blue hydrogen remain active without any time constraints. Our latest analysis of North America, including the US and Canada, indicates that total low-carbon hydrogen production will likely reach 3.7 million tonnes by 2030, led by blue hydrogen, followed by green, purple, and bio-based hydrogen, with the US leading from the front. As growth in this market becomes increasingly complex, one of the key enablers for investors and project developers to achieve cost competitiveness with conventional hydrogen will be long-term funding support. While Canada offers tax credits based on emissions intensity and availability up to 2034, the US has restricted the availability of tax credits to projects starting construction by December 2027.

This study outlines how Canada and the US are aligning with their respective national hydrogen strategies through a three-dimensional rating and ranking based on regulatory drivers, market access, and physical market design, followed by long-term production forecasts of different types of hydrogen, an overview of key incumbents across the hydrogen value chain, and the top offtakers in each country's market.

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the North American Hydrogen Industry

Research Findings, Scope, Key Questions this Study Will Answer, Profiling Methodology, and Forecasting Assumptions

Key Insights
Key Findings-Country Rankings
Scope of Analysis
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Profiling Methodology and Forecast Assumptions

Canada

Regulatory Overview-Canada
Ease of Market Access-Canada
Physical Market Design-Canada
Forecast Commentary-Canada
Top Five Applications-Canada
Country Ecosystem-Canada

United States

Regulatory Overview-United States
Ease of Market Access-United States
Physical Market Design-United States
Forecast Commentary-United States
Top Five Applications-United States
Country Ecosystem-United States

Appendix

Criteria Definitions-Criteria 1-5
Criteria Definitions-Criteria 6-10

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Pursuing Industrial Decarbonization by Switching to Low Carbon Hydrogen Feedstock
Growth Opportunity 2: Blue Hydrogen Production with Carbon Capture and Storage
Growth Opportunity 3: Targeting the Ammonia Industry: Clean Hydrogen Feedstock and Ammonia as a Hydrogen Carrier