与生质燃料再生能源炼油厂市场:趋势与展望

Biofuels and Renewable Refineries Continue to Gain Momentum - Market Trends and Outlook

出版日期: 2023年07月31日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 | 订单完成后即时交付

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随着 ESG 不利因素的加剧，可再生燃料消耗预计将增加。例如，2022 年至 2040 年间，SAF 消费量预计将以 32% 的复合年增长率增长。因此，越来越多的原油炼油厂正在考虑使其产品多样化，纳入可再生燃料，包括通过协同加工、炼油转化以及建立独立的可再生能源炼油厂。然而，改用可再生燃料面临许多挑战和隐性成本，可能会破坏改用可再生燃料的经济性。

当今市场上最流行的五种生物燃料是乙醇、FAME 生物柴油、可再生柴油、生物甲醇和可持续航空燃料 (SAF)。这些燃料是通过加工生物质生产的。每种生物燃料都有许多优点和缺点。但最重要的是，生物燃料在其使用寿命内的碳排放量比传统燃料少，为不适合电气化的行业提供了脱碳潜力。生物燃料的脱碳潜力促使需求增加和政策支持扩大，促使许多炼油厂考虑将其产品多样化为可再生燃料。炼油厂的选择包括协同加工、将传统炼油厂转变为可再生能源以及独立的可再生能源项目。与建设新炼油厂相比，改造现有炼油厂有可能降低成本。然而，转型也面临着许多挑战。炼油厂改造的经济可行性取决于原料的邻近性、可用性和价格等因素，以及可再生燃料对传统设施进行改造的程度。

SAF 预计将在 2037 年超过 FAME 生物柴油，并在 2022 年至 2040 年期间以 32% 的复合年增长率增长。这种强劲的增长将受到旨在航空业脱碳的政策的推动，例如欧盟航空加油倡议。同期乙醇的增长速度将较慢，为1.8%，反映出该燃料的缺点，包括使用粮食作物以及与传统燃料相比能量含量相对较低，这增加了燃料消耗和总体运行成本。

全球可再生能源炼油厂数量预计将从 2020 年的 42 家增加到 2030 年的 187 家。美国继续主导生产，到 2030 年将占可再生燃料产能的 45%。

本报告提供生质燃料与再生能源炼油厂市场相关调查，提供生质燃料的优点缺点生质燃料市场预测，生质燃料消费趋势，可再生燃料市场形势，参与企业与今后的预测等。

摘要整理
生质燃料相关说明会
本公司关注的5个生质燃料的介绍
生质燃料的优点和缺点
生质燃料市场主要企业
促进消费增加的生质燃料政策
生质燃料市场预测
生质燃料消费趋势
生质燃料交易活动
生质燃料的申请趋势
再生能源预测
生产能力预测
可再生燃料市场形势
运作中及今后作为再生能源炼油厂最大规模
再生能源计划，各类型
对再生能源的转换
可再生燃料的崛起的石油、天然气部门的策略
炼油厂转换的优点和缺点
进行中的转换计划和今后的转换计划
转换炼油厂的龙头企业
独立型计划和转换计划

简介目录图表

Product Code: GDUKOG121919

Abstract

Amid strengthening ESG headwinds, consumption of renewable fuels is expected to rise. For example, consumption of SAFs is expected to increase at a CAGR of 32% between 2022 and 2040. As a result, more and more crude oil refineries are considering diversifying their product offerings to include renewable fuels through coprocessing, refinery conversion, and the establishment of standalone renewable refineries. However, the switch to renewable fuels holds a number of challenges and hidden costs that could undermine the economic viability of switching to renewable fuels.

The five biofuels that are most prevalent within the current market are ethanol, FAME biodiesel, renewable diesel, biomethanol, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). These fuels are generated through the processing of biomass. Each biofuel contains a number of advantages and disadvantages. However, most key is that biofuels produce less carbon emissions over their lifetime than conventional fuels and so offer decarbonization potential to industries that are unsuitable for electrification. The decarbonization potential of biofuels has led to their increasing demand and growing policy support, leading many refiners to consider diversifying their products to renewable fuels. Options for refiners include co-processing, conversion of conventional refineries to renewable refineries, and standalone renewable refinery projects. Converting existing refineries offers potential cost savings compared to building new refinery facilities. However, there are a number of challenges that accompany conversion. The economic viability of refinery conversion will hinge on factors such as feedstock proximity, availability and price as well as the degree to which legacy equipment can be retrofitted for renewable fuels.

Key Highlights

SAFs are expected to overtake FAME Biodiesel in 2037 and will grow at a CAGR of 32% between 2022 and 2040. This strong growth will be facilitated by policies aimed at decarbonizing the aviation sector such as the Refuel EU Aviation Initiative.
Ethanol will show a more gradual increase of 1.8% over the same time frame which reflects some of this fuel's drawbacks such as its use of edible crops and comparatively lower energy content than conventional fuels, which increases fuel consumption and overall running costs.
The number of companies mentioning biofuels within their company filings has been increasing, with the number of filer companies increasing at a CAGR of 14% between 2016 and 2022.
Neste Corp recorded the highest number of mentions of biofuels within its filings since 2020, recording 134 across this time frame.
The number of global renewable refineries is expected to reach 187 in 2030, compared to 42 in 2020.
The United States will remain the dominant player in terms of production, accounting for 45% of renewable fuel production capacity in 2030.
Only 8% of upcoming projects are crude refinery conversions, reflecting the challenges of repurposing oil refining infrastructure for the production of biofuels

Scope

Assessment of conventional biofuels within the current market and their limiting factors
Key market players with respect to each biofuel
Upcoming biofuels policies
Biofuel deals and company filings data
Renewable fuel consumption and production forecasts
Geography of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects
The current renewable refinery conversion trend and its challenges
Leading companies that are converting crude oil refineries

Reasons to Buy

Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to the oil refinery conversion trend.
Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries.
Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for renewable fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery project.
Develop business strategies by identifying the most promising route to renewable fuel conversion.