石油和天然气产业低碳燃料策略：市场概况、生产前景、趋势和分析

石油和天然气产业目前面临许多挑战，但其产品脱碳的压力至关重要。再生柴油、SAF 和合成燃料等低碳燃料提供了一条脱碳途径，使石油和天然气产业能够继续向现有消费产业提供产品和服务。石油和天然气公司正在探索多种策略来进入低碳燃料市场。再生柴油或 SAF 可以透过重复利用加氢处理装置对现有炼油厂进行协同加工或改造来生产。大部分再生柴油和 SAF 产能预计将来自独立的再生能源项目。同时，石油和天然气公司必须与氢气供应商合作或投资自己的氢气生产设备来生产合成燃料。这些低碳燃料的产量预计都会增加，但每种燃料都有自己的挑战，因为目前与传统燃料相比不具成本竞争力。总体而言，SAF 将经历最强劲的成长，2018 年至 2030 年复合年增长率为 49.8%，使其成为石油和天然气行业一个充满前景的领域。同时，再生柴油产量同期将成长13.1%。生产面临的挑战是，到 2030 年，合成燃料仍将是一项正在发展的技术。

本报告探讨了石油和天然气行业的低碳燃料战略，以现有石油和天然气基础设施以及劳动力技能和专业知识为基础，包括可再生柴油、可持续航空燃料(SAF)，重点关注合成燃料，评估这些低碳燃料的生产前景，提供有关石油和天然气公司最大机会、未来预测等的资讯。

目录

• 执行摘要
• 石油和天然气产业的低碳燃料策略
• 石油和天然气产业面临的挑战
• 低碳燃料市场中石油和天然气的重点领域
• 公司重点发展的低碳燃料介绍
• 向再生燃料过渡的产业策略
• 转化/协同製程炼油厂与独立项目
• 再生柴油
• 再生柴油产量前景
• 目前再生柴油市场的领导者
• 2030 年产能最大的再生柴油项目
• 石油天然气相关公司的应用趋势
• 消费与贸易趋势
• 永续航空燃料
• SAF 生产前景
• 2030 年产能最大的 SAF 项目
• SAF 当前和未来的市场领导者
• 石油天然气相关公司的应用趋势
• 贸易活动
• 合成燃料
• 生产前景
• 石油和天然气合成燃料公司
• 咨询方式

Abstract

The oil and gas industry currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize its products is arguably the largest. Low carbon fuels such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels offer a route to decarbonization that allows the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries. There are a number of strategies that oil and gas players are exploring to branch into the low carbon fuels market. Renewable diesel and SAFs can be produced through coprocessing or the conversion of existing refineries by repurposing hydrotreating equipment. Standalone renewable projects will contribute the majority of production capacity for renewable diesel and SAFs. Meanwhile, oil and gas players will need to engage with hydrogen suppliers or invest in their own hydrogen production facilities to produce synthetic fuels. The production of each of these low carbon fuels is expected to increase, but all come with their own set of challenges, namely that they are currently not cost competitive with conventional fuels. Overall, SAFs will experience the strongest growth, with a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018- 2030 and, as a result, represent a promising area for the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile, renewable diesel production will increase by 13.1% across the same time frame. Production challenges will see synthetic fuels remains a nascent technology in the run up to 2030.

Amid increasing pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products, this report outlines oil and gas sector strategies within the low carbon fuels market. The report identifies renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and synthetic fuel as key focus areas based on existing oil and gas infrastructure as well as workforce skills and expertise. The report assesses the production outlook for each of these low carbon fuels and indicates the biggest areas of opportunity for oil and gas players.

Key Highlights

• Larger production capacities of renewable fuels are typically being achieved by renewable standalone projects, where construction is not hampered by an existing refinery footprint. Although these projects require a much higher capital expenditure.
• Based on GlobalData's database of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects, renewable diesel production is expected to exceed 8,900 mmgy by 2030.
• Only 4 of the top 10 integrated oil and gas companies by market capitalization feature in our renewable diesel ranking by capacity.
• Taking together both active and pipeline production capacity, SAF production is expected to exceed 6,100 mmgy in 2030.
• Low synthetic fuel production is partly due to the early stages of this technology and the challenges of achieving economically viable production on a commercial scale.

Scope

• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Renewable diesel upcoming projects
• SAFs production outlook
• SAFS upcoming projects
• Synthetic fuels production outlook
• Low carbon fuel deal activity within oil and gas
• Company filing trends within low carbon fuels

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies related to oil and gas sector strategies in the low carbon fuels segment.
• Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch form oil refining to renewable refineries for crude oil refiners.
• Gain insight into the production outlook for renewable diesel, SAFS, and synthetic fuels.
• Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for low carbon fuel production and gain an overview of largest upcoming renewable refinery projects.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Oil and Gas Sector Strategies for Low Carbon Fuels
• Oil and gas sector challenges
• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Introduction to our focus low carbon fuels
• Sector strategies for transitioning to renewable fuels
• Converted/ coprocessing refineries vs standalone projects
• Renewable Diesel
• Renewable diesel production outlook
• Current market leaders in renewable diesel
• The largest renewable diesel projects by 2030 capacity
• Company filing trends in oil and gas
• Consumption and deal trends
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel
• SAF production outlook
• The largest SAF projects by 2030 capacity
• Current and projected market leaders in SAFs
• Company filing trends in oil and gas
• Deal activity
• Synthetic Fuels
• Production outlook
• Oil and gas synthetic fuel players
• Contact us

List of Tables

List of Tables

• Largest renewable diesel projects by their 2030 capacity
• Largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• Key Takeaways

List of Figures

List of Figures

• Oil and gas sector challenges
• Oil and gas focus areas in the low carbon fuels market
• Introducing the three focus low carbon fuels for the oil and gas sector
• Types of renewable refinery
• Renewable refineries by type and project count, 2023 - 2030
• CAPEX across renewable refinery types
• Renewable diesel production outlook, 2018 - 2030
• Top 15 renewable diesel companies by capacity in 2022
• Mentions of renewable diesel in oil and gas company filings, 2016 - August 2023
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of renewable diesel within company filings
• Renewable diesel consumption, 2022 - 2040
• Oil and gas deals related to renewable diesel 2018 - 2022
• SAF production outlook, 2018 - 2030
• Top SAF producers by 2022 capacity
• Top SAF producers by 2030 capacity
• SAF mentions by oil and gas companies, 2018 - 2023 (YTD)
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of SAFs in company filings between 2018 and 2023 (YTD)
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity in the oil and gas sector
• Synthetic fuel production and project count, 2018 - 2030
• Upcoming synthetic fuel production capacity of oil and gas players as of August 2023