能源转换形成的重要材料

Critical Materials Shaping Energy Transition

出版日期: 2024年06月12日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 41 Pages | 订单完成后即时交付

价格

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简介目录

全球能源转型将需要大幅增加太阳能、风能、储能、电动车和低碳氢化合物生产等关键技术的产能。这将增加对各种关键材料的需求，某些材料的需求成长超过供应。

由于能源转型技术，上述原料的需求将大幅增加。儘管最近出现了供应过剩的担忧，但从长远来看，锂无疑仍将是风险最大的关键原材料，其能量密集的特性使其成为电池电动车 (BEV) 和储能的关键材料。儘管矿业公司正在提高产能，并降低矿场的供应风险，但锂精炼在地理上仍然高度集中在中国等特定国家，价值链中的单一加工环节构成了来源风险。

同时，钴、铜、镍和石墨等其他原料在影响能源转型技术方面将继续构成中度至高度风险。风电、太阳能、电网、储能和电动车等技术需要大量的每种材料，随着新矿场的开发，给现有供应带来压力。

铂、硅等材料具有中度至低度的能源转型风险，但从长远来看，两者都面临着需求的大幅增长，因此需要国际社会的努力。广泛而快速地采用电解质膜电解槽来生产氢气将威胁铂金的供应。同时，儘管硅对太阳能电池很重要，但它仍然是地理上最集中的供应链之一。

主要亮点

近年来，由于再生能源和配套基础设施的发展加快，对主要矿产的需求大幅增加。
根据 IEA 的数据，清洁能源技术对矿物的需求从 2010 年的 460 万吨增加到 2020 年的 710 万吨，同期复合年增长率为 4.3%。
根据 GlobalData 的矿产产量预测，2024 年至 2030 年锂产量预计将以 14% 的复合年增长率增长，到本十年末将达到 500kT 以上。
预计从 2023 年到 2010 年底，依赖锂离子电池的储能项目将大幅增加，到 2023 年，随着许多管道项目的上线，该子技术的储能容量将从 18GWh 增加到 54GWh。 2030年。
智利将在全球铜业中保持强大的市场地位，其正在酝酿的 97 个以铜为主要矿产的采矿项目，但秘鲁、美国、加拿大和澳大利亚等其他国家也是如此，据信未来计划建设铜矿的热门地点。
中国主导太阳能价值链的每个环节，并且是硅的主要生产国，预计到 2024 年年产能将达到 600 万吨。除了製造面板和模组外，中国也是硅片和电池的重要生产国。

本报告审查和分析了塑造能源转型的关键材料，提供每种材料的风险评估、供需预测以及当前和即将开展的项目的详细资讯。

The global energy transition will require a substantial build out of capacity across key technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, electric vehicles and low-carbon hydrogen production. This will increase demand across a broad range of critical materials and for some this demand growth will outpace supply. In its critical minerals report, GlobalData identifies the most at-risk raw materials necessary for the energy transition, taking into account the importance of each material to different energy transition technologies, the volume of material required, and risk factors to each material's supply. Using this framework, the report discusses the supply risk of lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum, silicon, and graphite.

The raw materials discussed will experience significant demand increases from energy transition technologies. Despite recent oversupply concerns, lithium arguably remains the most at-risk critical raw material for the long term, with its energy density properties making it a pivotal raw material for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and energy storage more widely. Although miners are increasing their production capacity, which will alleviate the mine side supply risk, lithium refining remains highly geographically concentrated in select countries such as China, creating single source risk in the processing element of the value chain.

Meanwhile, other raw materials such as cobalt, copper, nickel, and graphite, will continue to have a medium-high level of risk in terms of how they could impact energy transition technologies. Large quantities of each material will be required for technologies such as wind, solar, power grids, energy storage, and electric vehicles, which will put pressure on existing supplies while new mines continue to develop.

Materials such as platinum and silicon present a medium to low risk for the energy transition but still require international efforts to secure their supplies as both will face a strong increase in demand in the long term. A widespread and rapid adoption of PEM electrolyzers within hydrogen production will threaten platinum supplies while, despite its importance to solar, silicon still holds one of the most geographically concentrated supply chains.

Key Highlights

Recent years have witnessed a strong increase in demand for key minerals following the increased installation of renewable energy and its supporting infrastructure.
According to the IEA, mineral demand from clean energy technologies increased from 4.6Mt in 2010 to 7.1Mt in 2020, which represented a CAGR of 4.3% across the time frame.
According to GlobalData's commodity production forecasts, lithium production is expected to increase at a CAGR of almost 14% between 2024 and 2030, surpassing 500kT by the end of the decade.
Although alternative battery chemistries are increasingly a focus of research and development efforts, energy storage projects relying on lithium-ion batteries are still expected to see a strong increase between 2023 and the end of the decade, with the energy storage capacity of this sub-technology increasing from 18GWh in 2023 to 54GWh by 2030 as a number of pipeline projects come online.
While Chile will retain its strong market position in the global copper industry with a pipeline of 97 mine projects where copper is the primary commodity, other countries such as Peru, the United States, Canada, and Australia will also be popular sites for upcoming copper mines.
China dominates each stage of solar value chain, acting as a leading producer of silicon, with a forecast production capacity of 6mtpa in 2024. China is also a pre-eminent player within wafer, cell, as well as panel and module manufacturing.

Scope

Risk assessment of critical raw materials required for energy transition technologies
Risk drivers for critical material value chains
Lithium supply and demand forecasts
Lithium active and upcoming mines
Energy transition technologies driving increased lithium demand
Analysis of leading countries and companies for lithium
Copper supply and demand forecasts
Analysis of upcoming copper projects by geography and development stage
Analysis of leading countries and companies for copper
Cobalt supply and demand forecasts
Project details for largest active and upcoming cobalt mines
Analysis of leading countries and companies for cobalt
Nickel supply and demand forecasts
Project details for largest active and upcoming nickel projects
Analysis of leading countries and companies for nickel production
Platinum supply and demand forecasts
Project details for largest active and upcoming platinum projects
Analysis of leading countries and companies for platinum production
Silicon supply and demand analysis
Top silicon producing countries
Graphite supply and demand analysis
Project details for largest active and upcoming graphite projects
Leading countries and companies for graphite production

Reasons to Buy

Understand the factors driving risk for the supplies of critical materials necessary for the energy transition.
Gain an understanding of the critical material demands of energy transition technologies.
Stay informed about key mining projects that will influence the supplies of critical raw materials
Gain insight into the geographical characteristics of the critical raw material market
Understand the key players producing lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, platinum and graphite.