大洋洲的能源转型－推动发展的部门和公司

大洋洲的再生能源有潜力引领世界能源转型。然而，到目前为止，大洋洲一直是采用再生能源进展缓慢的地区之一。澳洲 2024-2025 年联邦预算让人们相信大洋洲正朝着正确的方向前进。澳洲国家利益框架（2024）等新措施对于向净零环境过渡至关重要。儘管大洋洲过去十年可再生能源发电能力的增长表面上表明了其为实现净零排放所做的努力，但化石燃料仍占发电占有率的一半以上，而大洋洲则表明对后者的过度依赖。如果大洋洲要实现其气候目标，太阳能、风能、储能、电动车、SAF、CCUS 和氢等技术将发挥关键作用。

大洋洲拥有巨大的再生能源潜力。到目前为止，大洋洲在挖掘其潜力方面进展缓慢，但各国政府现在开始采取政策和措施来吸引投资，并强调再生能源对未来的重要性。

交通运输是大洋洲最大的排放部门之一。这些排放主要是由汽油和柴油轻型车辆造成的。儘管推出了许多鼓励使用电动车的政策，但 GlobalData 估计，由于电动车充电站网路不均衡，纯电动车仅占 LV 总销量的 47%。

本报告探讨了大洋洲的能源转型，总结了该地区的市场趋势、氢技术的主要参与者、目前正在开发和公布的氢供应能力、最新趋势以及到 2030 年的市场成长前景。

目录

• 概述
• 电力展望与发电
• 储能
• 电子车
• 再生燃料

CCUS

• 氢

Oceania has the renewable potential to be a world leader in energy transition. However, to date, it has been one of the regions that have been slower to adopt renewable energy. Australia's 2024-25 federal budget gives belief that the region is trending in the right direction. New initiatives, such as Australia's National Interest Framework (2024) are vital in the transition to a net zero environment. Oceania's increase in renewable power capacity share over the past decade on the surface shows an effort to achieve net zero, however, fossil fuels still account for over half its power generation share showing that Oceania is still overly reliant on the latter. Technologies such as solar, wind, energy storage, EVs, SAFs, CCUS, and hydrogen will play a crucial role in allowing Oceania to reach its climate targets.

Oceania possesses vast renewable energy potential. So far, it has been slow to tap into its potential, but its governments have now started to adopt policies and initiatives to attract investment and highlight the importance of renewable energy for the future.

In 2024, renewables contributed to 59% of Oceania's overall power capacity. The share of renewable capacity will also increase significantly to 84% by 2035. The share of renewable power generation is expected to increase from 43% in 2024 to 79% in 2035.

In 2024, Oceania's energy storage capacity, all of which is Australian, was only 2% of the global share. 45% of Australia's energy storage capacity was made up of hydro-pumped storage highlighting the dominance of hydropower in the region. However, Australia is in a good position to increase its standing within the energy storage market with its vast domestic lithium supply.

Transport is one of the largest emitting sectors in Oceania. These emissions primarily come from petrol and diesel light vehicles. Despite numerous policies implemented to incentivise the use of EVs, GlobalData forecasts that BEVs will only account for 47% of all LV sales, hampered by uneven networks of EV charging points.

SAFs are experiencing an increase in both production and consumption, while production and consumption for renewable diesel and ethanol have either peaked, plateaued or will decline within the next decade. This is due to the vast proportion of feedstock produced being exported, a lack of government incentives and the rising electrification of light vehicles. The Australian government has noted the importance of SAFs in the transition to net zero, but it has yet to set out sufficient policies and incentives that will enable this.

Oceania has the smallest volume of CCS capacity of all regions with active capacity, significantly lagging behind Europe and North America. Despite Australia possessing geological advantages in comparison to the rest of the world, a lack of policy support and banning of carbon storage in certain basins has resulted in a poor CCUS outlook.

Despite having minimal active hydrogen capacity, Oceania looks to position itself as a leader in green hydrogen, with the third largest pipeline capacity and Western Australia as its hub. A high proportion of these projects are already in the post-feasibility stage. In a high-case scenario, with sufficient government support and private investment, the region could achieve a capacity of 5.1mtpa by 2030.

Key Highlights

• All 14 nations within Oceania have set 2050 as the target year to achieve net zero, in line with the Paris Agreement. Renewable power capacity share is set to reach 84% of the power capacity by 2035. Coal and Oil are slowly being decommissioned, with gas having the largest amount of upcoming capacity.
• Australia is still heavily reliant on coal as one of the world's largest exporters of it. Out of all renewable fuels, SAFs are predicted to witness the biggest growth both in supply and demand. Despite its geological advantages, Oceania's carbon capture capacity is the smallest among regions that currently have active and pipeline capacity. Oceania's hydrogen capacity is set to grow quickly in the coming years. Two projects are set to account for 40% of its upcoming hydrogen capacity, making its pipeline less secure.

Scope

• Oceania Climate targets and policies, Oceania CO2 emissions, Oceanian leaders in energy transition, renewable power capacity and generation, decommissioning of thermal power, energy storage capacity, policies and countries, electric vehicle sales growth, Oceanian upcoming renewable refineries, renewable fuels production and consumption, CCUS outlook and policies, Oceanian upcoming CC storage projects, hydrogen policies, Oceanian upcoming hydrogen policies, hydrogen capacity by stage and type.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the region and key players in hydrogen technologies.
• Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand the region's different scenarios for 2030 based on the likeliness of the projects.
• Look at the demand in key application areas for the country.
• Facilitate the understanding on how and where the market is growing as it is rapidly scaling up to position as one of the main topics of the international and national agenda.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summar
• Power Outlook and Generation
• Energy Storage
• Electric Vehicles
• Renewable Fuels

CCUS

• Hydrogen

List of Tables

• Sector grid and Oceania leaders
• solar EPC providers
• solar equipment manufacturers
• wind EPC providers
• wind equipment manufacturers
• key policies concerning EVs
• Oceania's largest upcoming renewable refineries
• current upcoming carbon capture storage projects in Oceania
• Oceania's largest upcoming hydrogen projects.

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by top contributors (2000-2022)
• Top emitting countries in Oceania (2000-2022)
• Oceania power capacity share (2018-2035)
• Oceania total power capacity share by technology type (2024)
• Oceania total power capacity share by technology type (2035)
• Oceania power generation share (2018-2035)
• Renewable energy generation (2018-2035)
• Renewable generation share across key players in Oceania (2024-2035)
• Upcoming and decommissioning thermal capacity (2024-2035)
• Oceania emissions by thermal power (2012-2022)
• Major regional players in solar capacity based on active and announced projects
• Major regional players in wind capacity based on active and announced projects
• Australian LCOE
• Global vs Australia energy storage capacity (2018-2030)
• Australian energy storage capacity by technology (2018-2030)
• Oceanian operational and pipeline rated energy storage capacity
• Pipeline number of projects and storage capacity per country
• Australian LV vs BEV vs Hybrid sales forecast (2018-2035)
• Australian total EV charge points and number of sites with EV charge points (2018-2028)
• Renewable fuel production per type for all active years
• Oceanian renewable fuel production capacity (2030)
• Oceanian renewable fuels' production and consumption (2024-2035)
• Oceanian Ethanol production and consumption (2020-2035)
• Australia vs New Zealand ethanol production (2020-2035)
• Australia vs New Zealand ethanol consumption (2020-2035)
• Annual CC capacity by region (2030)
• Facility industries for active CCUS projects in Australia (2024)
• CCUS capacity per state (2030)
• Oceanian countries' CCUS capacity (2020-2030)
• Regional split of low-carbon hydrogen capacity by development stage
• based on active announced projects
• Oceania vs global low-carbon hydrogen capacity by development stage
• based on active announced projects
• Oceania low-carbon hydrgoen capacity by type (2020-2030)
• Regional split of hydrogen capacity (2030)
• Regional split of electrolysis capacity in 2030 based on project announcements
• Oceanian low-carbon hydrogen capacity scenarios (2020-2030).