钢铁业的脱碳化

钢铁排放量占全球温室气体排放量的8%，被认为是难以减排的产业。 2022 年至 2050 年间，钢铁需求预计将增加 30% 以上，并且需要进行重大变革才能实现净零排放，即到 2050 年净零钢铁倡议 (NZI) 的目标。

儘管废钢的供应量预计会增加，但二次加工（回收）预计无法满足全球钢铁需求。钢铁製造的整体效率改进已被提议作为具有成本效益的解决方案，但这些只能带来适度的减排。实现有意义的减排需要放弃火力发电。

钢铁业价值链中碳强度最高的环节是钢铁製造。已提出的初级炼钢脱碳技术包括碳捕获、利用和储存（CCUS）、直接铁还原中的氢（HDRI）（替代煤炭）和电解。然而，这些生产 "绿色钢铁" 的方法难以具有成本竞争力，因此采用率仍然很低。实现净零目标需要加速引入这些技术。

电解尚未在商业规模上得到证实，CCUS的资本成本较高，令钢铁製造商持谨慎态度。 HDRI 被视为最成熟的技术，预计将占绿色钢铁项目的大部分。然而，氢基础设施的缺乏以及未来氢平准化成本的不确定性仍然是个课题。

随着这些新的製造方法变得更具成本竞争力，我们可能会在未来几十年内看到从煤炭转向 HDRI 和电解。 CBAM 等政策和承诺购买绿色钢铁的公司可以加速这一进程。

本报告审视了全球钢铁业的脱碳情况，概述了全球钢铁生产趋势和该行业的排放足迹、每个领域的行业脱碳关键技术，并讨论了关键参与者、政策和举措。

目录

摘要整理

• 世界钢铁工业
• 全球钢铁生产的最新趋势
• 钢铁业的碳排放
• 实现钢铁减量的关键技术
• 钢铁业脱碳面临的课题
• 2023年主要钢铁製造商的排放结果
• 主要政策和举措
• 整个钢铁价值链的排放
• 采矿业脱碳
• 再生能源
• 电气化
• 采矿公司采用电动铲运机和卡车
• 製造业脱碳
• 钢铁製造脱碳技术
• 钢铁製造中的低碳氢和 HDRI
• 发展低碳钢氢能的主要地区
• 专注于钢铁业的主要氢能开发公司
• HDRI 案例研究
• 钢铁製造中的 CCUS
• 钢铁业应用 CCUS 的主要公司
• 透过电解实现製造业脱碳
• 电解案例研究
• 二次钢铁製造业
• 二流製造案例研究
• 製造业减量策略评估
• 航运和物流脱碳

Steel contributes to 8% of global GHG emissions and is considered a hard to abate industry. As steel demand is expected to grow by more than 30% from 2022-2050, major changes will be needed to achieve the Net-Zero Steel Initiative's (NZI) target of net-zero by 2050.

Although scrap steel availability will increase, secondary stream steelmaking (recycling) is not expected to meet global steel demand. General efficiency increases in steelmaking have been proposed as a cost-effective solution, however these only yield modest emission reductions. A departure from thermal power sources is required to achieve meaningful emission reduction.

The most carbon intensive stage in the industry's value chain is steel manufacturing. Proposed technologies to decarbonize primary steelmaking include carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen (to replace coal) in direct reduction of iron (HDRI) and electrolysis. However, these methods of producing "green steel" struggle to be cost-competitive and so adoption remains low. An accelerated introduction of these technologies will be needed to meet net zero targets.

Electrolysis has not yet been proven at commercial scale, and steel manufacturers have been wary of CCUS due to its high capital costs. HDRI is seen as the most developed technology and is expected to make up the majority of green steel projects. However, a lack of hydrogen infrastructure and uncertainty surrounding the future levelized cost of hydrogen remains a challenge.

As these new production methods become more cost-competitive, there will be a shift from coal to HDRI and electrolysis over the coming decades. This process has the potential to be sped up by policies such as CBAM or by companies making commitments to purchase green steel.

Current trends in global steel production and the sector's emission footprint. Overview of the key technologies for decarbonizing the sector across the mining, manufacturing and logistics segments of the supply chain, including low-carbon hydrogen, CCUS, electrification. In addition, the report discuses the key players, policies, and initiatives throughout.

Scope

• Steel production has steadily increased over time, rising by a CAGR of 3.2% between 1950 and 2023 according to the World Steel Association. This growth has been driven by the industrialization of different regions over time, with the economic rise of China and India over the time frame contributing strongly to the global growth of steel production.
• 95% of carbon emissions in the steel industry are due to the manufacturing process - the direct reduction of iron ore is a very energy intensive process, requiring high levels of heat for the oxygen to be displaced from the iron ore.
• Despite the potential efficiency increases and emission reduction associated with electrification, adoption of battery powered loading equipment within mining remains relatively limited, with GlobalData's 2024 Mine Site Technology Survey revealing that 46% of miners had not invested in battery/ electric powered mining vehicles at all, compared to 2.7% for full implementation and 9.6% for considerable investment in the technology.
• According to GlobalData Hydrogen Analytics, the capital expenditure of low-carbon hydrogen projects that will come online by the end of the decade and supply the steel sector amounts to $136 billion.
• CCUS capacity within the steel sector accounts for 1.22Mt/year, so significant investment would be needed for the technology to meaningfully curb the steel industry's emissions.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the industry and assess what the biggest players in steel production are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize the industry, as well as the policy framework laid out by governments to support their adoption.
• Facilitate the understanding of what is happening within hard to abate industries as they aim to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• The global steel industry
• Recent trends in global steel production
• Carbon emissions from the steel industry
• Key technologies for achieving emission reduction in steel
• Challenges for decarbonizing the steel industry
• Emissions performance of the largest steel producers in 2023
• Key policies and initiatives
• Emissions across the steel value chain
• Decarbonizing mining
• Renewable energy
• Electrification
• Adoption of electric LHDs and trucks across miners
• Decarbonizing manufacturing
• Technologies for decarbonizing steel manufacturing
• Low-carbon hydrogen and HDRI in steel manufacturing
• Key regions developing low-carbon hydrogen for steel
• Key hydrogen developers focusing on the steel sector
• HDRI case studies
• CCUS in steel manufacturing
• Key players applying CCUS to steel
• Decarbonizing manufacturing through electrolysis
• Electrolysis case studies
• Secondary stream manufacturing within steel
• Secondary stream manufacturing case studies
• Assessing emission reduction strategies for manufacturing
• Decarbonizing shipping and logistics

List of Tables

• Emissions performance of the largest steel producers in 2023
• Technologies for decarbonizing manufacturing
• Assessing electrolysis technologies
• World trade in iron ore by region, 2023

List of Figures

• Historical crude steel production, 1950 - 2023
• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019 - 2022
• CO2 emissions per tonne of crude steel cast, 2012 - 2022
• Key technologies for achieving emission reductions within steel
• Key challenges for decarbonizing the steel industry
• The steel value chain
• Active and upcoming iron ore projects by development stage and grid status
• Renewable capacity associated with iron ore projects by mine start year, 2021 - 2030
• Split of scope 1 carbon emissions in mining
• Adoption of BEVs within mining according to GlobalData's mine site technology survey
• Adoption of electric LHDs and trucks across miners
• Maximum low-carbon hydrogen being supplied to the steel sector, 2022 - 2030
• Regional split of low-carbon hydrogen capacity being allocated to the steel sector
• Top 10 countries by low-carbon hydrogen capacity supplying the steel sector in 2030
• Leading owners of hydrogen projects allocating capacity to the steel sector in 2030
• CCUS capacity within the iron and steel sector, 2022 - 2030
• Scrap share of metallic inputs under a net-zero scenario, 2018 - 2030