化学产业的脱碳化 - 2024年

化学工业是最大的工业能源消耗者，约占排放量的 2%。该部门的碳排放是由化学反应所需的过程能源和使用化石燃料作为原料共同造成的。

该报告确定了改善该行业排放足迹的四个关键方法：製程效率改进和电气化、绿氢、CCUS 以及生物质和废弃物原料。这四项措施解决了该行业的製程能源和原料需求。

本报告中所确定的能源转型技术介入措施也可以分为提供短期和长期减排的策略。短期减排将专注于透过提高製程效率来减少能源需求。本报告概述如何应用人工智慧、物联网和数位孪生来识别设备效率低下并优化化工厂运作。

但从长远来看，我们需要将生产与排放脱钩，这将要求工业大幅改变其与碳的关係。 CCUS 改造可用于避免工厂排放，但该技术取决于更广泛的 CCUS 运输和储存基础设施的出现。同时，绿氢、生物质和塑胶废物都是可用于减少该产业对化石燃料作为原料的依赖的替代品。

主要亮点

• 所有主要化学产品的产量预计将增加，以因应需求的增加。 2024年至2030年，聚丙烯和聚乙烯产量预计将分别以3.8%和2.8%的复合年增长率成长。
• 另一方面，氨等主要产品预计同期成长 1.7%。然而，氨生产的碳强度意味着这一小幅成长将对更广泛产业的排放足迹产生重大影响，光是氨就占化学工业排放量的 45%。
• 技术创新有助于化学品生产和能源需求脱钩，是短期减排的关键。
• 开发新的催化剂和减少製程能源需求的能源回收措施是减少化学产业能源需求和防止浪费的关键。
• 透过利用农作物和废弃物等生物来源来实现原料多样化，为减少对化石燃料的依赖提供了一条途径。此外，塑胶废弃物可以透过热解等过程回收成新的化学原料。
• 预计 2024 年至 2035 年工业能源需求将强劲成长，期间复合年增长率为 7%。由于这一增长，2024 年至 2035 年间，工业部门在全球电力需求中的占有率将增加 2.4%。

本报告提供全球化学产业调查分析，提供市场趋势，大企业的排放削减活动的评估，主要的脱碳化技术相关见地，低碳技术的采用趋势等资讯。

目录

• 摘要整理
• 碳排放与宏观展望
• 化学产业对气候变迁的贡献
• 主要化学产品的需求
• 氨对化学品排放的贡献
• 脱碳技术引进
• 四种主要的化学品脱碳技术
• 技术：脱碳潜力，分阶段
• 脱碳技术的优点和缺点
• 脱碳的宏观经济障碍课题
• 主要公司的目标和排放
• 主要化学和石化公司的排放和净零目标
• 製程效率
• 化学工业的能源使用
• 用于提高製程效率的关键方法
• 製程效率案例研究
• 化学品中的氢
• 作为低碳氢化合物最终用途的化学品
• 低碳氨生产
• 针对化学工业的低碳氢化合物项目
• 案例研究
• 化学品中的CCUS
• CCUS 产能展望
• 专案与案例研究
• 生物质和废弃物作为原料
• 生物质化学品
• 废塑胶化学品
• 咨询方式

The chemicals industry accounts for approximately 2% of emissions and is the largest industrial energy consumer. The sector's carbon emissions stem from the combination of process energy which is required for chemical reactions as well as the use of fossil fuels as a feedstock. This report identifies four key methodologies for improving the sector's emissions footprint: increasing process efficiency and electrification, green hydrogen, CCUS, and biomass and waste-based feedstocks. These four measures address the sector's process energy and feedstock requirements.

The energy transition technology interventions identified within this report can also be broken down into strategies that provide near-term and long-term emission reduction. Shorter-term emission reduction will focus on reducing energy demand through increasing process efficiency. This report outlines how applications of artificial intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT), and digital twins can be used to identify equipment inefficiencies and optimize chemical plant operations.

However, in the longer term, there is a need to decouple production from emissions, which will require the industry to dramatically shift its relationship with carbon. CCUS retrofits can be used to avert emissions from plants, but this technology is contingent on the emergence of a wider CCUS transport and storage infrastructure. Meanwhile, green hydrogen, biomass and plastic waste all represent alternatives that can be used to reduce the sector's reliance on fossil fuels for feedstock.

Key Highlights

• All major chemical products are expected to experience an increase in production in response to increasing demand. Polypropylene and polyethylene are forecast to experience a growth in production of CAGR 3.8% and 2.8%, respectively, between 2024 and 2030.
• Meanwhile major products such as ammonia will experience a slower growth of 1.7% across the same time frame. However, the carbon intensity of ammonia production will cause this small increases to have a significant impact on the emission footprint of the wider industry, with ammonia alone accounting for 45% of the chemical sector's emissions.
• Technological innovation will facilitate a decoupling between chemical production and energy demand, which will be key to short-term emission reductions.
• Developing novel catalysts that reduce process energy requirements and energy recovery measures will be key to cutting the sector's energy demand and preventing waste.
• Diversifying feedstocks by using biogenic materials such as crops and waste products offers a route to decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. In addition, plastic waste can be recycled into new chemical product feedstock through processes such as pyrolysis.
• Industrial energy demand is expected to increase strongly between 2024 and 2035, growing at CAGR of 7% across the time frame. As a result of this growth, the industrial sector will hold an increasing proportion of global power demand, with its share rising by 2.4% between 2024 and 2035.

Scope

• Chemical sector emissions, key chemical companies emission disclosure, chemical decarbonization strategies, low-carbon hydrogen, CCUS, increasing efficiency, alternative waste and biomass-based feedstocks.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends within the industry and assess what the biggest players in chemical production are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize chemical production through case studies from industry leaders.
• Understand the chemical industry adoption trends of emerging low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen and CCUS.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Carbon emissions and macro-outlook
• Chemicals industry's contribution to climate change
• Demand for major chemical products
• Ammonia's contribution to chemical emissions
• Introduction to decarbonization technologies
• Four key decarbonisation technologies for chemicals
• Technologies by decarbonization potential and stage
• Advantages and disadvantages of decarbonization technologies
• Macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Key player targets and emissions
• Emissions and net-zero targets of key chemical and petrochemical players
• Process efficiency
• Energy use in the chemicals industry
• Key methods for increasing process efficiency
• Process efficiency case studies
• Hydrogen in chemicals
• Chemicals as an end-use sector for low-carbon hydrogen
• Low carbon ammonia production
• Low-carbon hydrogen projects that will target the chemical sector
• Case Studies
• CCUS in chemicals
• CCUS capacity outlook
• Projects and Case Studies
• Biomass and waste as feedstocks
• Biomass-based chemicals
• Waste plastic-based chemicals
• Contact us

List of Tables

• Assessing technologies for decarbonizing the chemical industry
• Advantages and disadvantages of different emission reduction methods
• Emission performance and targets for chemical and petrochemical companies
• Low-carbon hydrogen projects that will target the chemical sector
• Projects applying CCUS to the chemical and fertilizer sector

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019 - 2022
• Chemical industry emissions, 2010 - 2030 (net-zero scenario
• Major demand markets for petrochemical products, 2018 - 2030
• Demand for major chemicals, 2018 - 2030
• Approximate breakdown of chemical sector emissions by product
• Annual production of major chemical products in 2024 vs 2030
• The top four energy transition technologies for chemicals
• Five macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Breakdown of global power demand by sector in 2035
• Process energy for primary chemical production, 2010 - 2030
• Global low-carbon hydrogen capacity by development stage, 2021 - 2030
• Hydrogen plants allocating capacity to the chemical sector, 2021 - 2030
• Breakdown of active and upcoming production capacity by end-product
• Low-carbon ammonia capacity, 2021 - 2030
• Global CCS capacity by development stage, 2022 - 2030
• CCS capacity in chemical sector and project count, 2022 - 2030