公路及铁路货运脱碳

公路和铁路货运对于供应链的运输至关重要，但它也是主要的排放源。根据 IEA 的数据，到 2022 年，交通运输部门的二氧化碳排放量占全球二氧化碳排放量的 23%。实现净零目标需要部署一系列能源转型技术，包括电气化、替代燃料和氢气。本报告涵盖了每种技术的发展阶段及其对公路和铁路货运的适用性。

到 2022 年，公路运输占运输相关排放量的 74%，重型货运车辆占 16%，铁路仅占 1%。为了满足 IEA 的 2050 NZE 情景，交通运输部门必须到 2030 年每年将二氧化碳排放量减少 3% 以上。这项要求要求两个部门在能源转型技术上共同努力，以实现减排。

在公路货运方面，重点正在转向卡车电气化，但范围有限和加油时间长等挑战是行业利益相关者主要关注的问题。氢动力卡车也有望在该行业的脱碳中发挥关键作用，提供长距离和快速加油的好处。然而，其高昂的製造成本和缺乏加油基础设施继续阻碍其广泛采用。另一方面，替代燃料和混合燃料混合物代表了一种可行的临时解决方案，而该行业期待降低氢的价格并提高重型车辆电池的性能。

与公路货运不同，由于人们认识到铁路已经是一种清洁的运输方式，因此铁路货运的脱碳并没有那么紧迫。然而，铁路是陆路长途散装运输最有效的解决方案，因此对于货运业脱碳至关重要。

最终，公路和铁路部门之间的合作对于减少排放和实现净零目标至关重要。铁路将负责长途运输，而卡车将专注于住宅区和偏远地区的最后一英里交付。

本报告审查和分析了全球公路和铁路货运行业，并评估了电气化、替代燃料和氢气等能源转型技术的适用性，这些技术有可能使这些行业脱碳。

主要亮点

• 提高效率和最佳化措施是减少陆上货运排放的最快且最具成本效益的方法。
• 电气化作为传统内燃机（ICE）的替代品，为铁路和公路货运提供了巨大的脱碳潜力。
• 使用 FAME 生物柴油、HVO 和合成燃料等替代燃料为减少排放提供了临时解决方案，同时业界也在等待氢气等更具创新性的技术的进一步发展。
• 氢燃料电池和氢内燃机透过氢气取代碳氢化合物燃料，为陆上货运产业提供了巨大的脱碳潜力。目前，该技术的广泛使用受到电力和新基础设施成本高昂的阻碍。
• 最终，连接公路和铁路将产生最大的效果。未来，陆路运输很可能走向多式联运。铁路适合长途运输，卡车可以更灵活地覆盖首公里和最后一公里。

目录

• 执行摘要
• 公路和铁路货运的碳排放
• 能量转换技术简介
• 评估能源转换技术的脱碳潜力
• 公路与铁路货运脱碳的主要挑战
• 公路与铁路货运的净零排放目标
• 公路与铁路货运电气化
• 公路与铁路货运替代燃料：生质柴油与合成燃料
• 公路和铁路货运中的氢气
• 未来方向：部门合作

Road and rail freight transport are essential to keep supply chains moving; however, they are significant sources of emissions. According to the IEA, in 2022, the transport sector accounted for 23% of global CO2 emissions in 2022. In order to meet net-zero targets, a range of energy transition technologies, including electrification, alternative fuels and hydrogen, will need be to be deployed. This report will tackle the development stage of each technology, as well as their suitability to road and rail freight.

In 2022, road transport accounted for 74% of all transport-related emissions, with heavy freight vehicles contributing 16% and rail only contributing 1% of all transport-related emissions. To align with the IEA's 2050 NZE scenario, the transport sector must reduce CO2 emissions by over 3% per year by 2030. Due to this requirement, both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

This report assesses the suitability of energy transition technologies such as electrification, alternative fuels, and hydrogen, which hold decarbonization potential for both sectors. This report also includes a snapshot of emissions targets and interim strategies from both sectors' biggest companies, as well as relevant governmental policies and initiatives.

In road freight, the emphasis is shifting toward the electrification of trucks, although challenges like limited range and lengthy refueling times are significant concerns for industry stakeholders. Hydrogen-fueled trucks are also expected to play a significant role in the sector's decarbonization, offering the benefits of longer journeys and faster refueling. However, their high production costs and a lack of refueling infrastructure continue to hinder widespread adoption. In the meantime, alternative fuels and hybrid blends present a viable interim solution while the industry anticipates price reductions for hydrogen and improved performance of batteries within heavy vehicles.

Unlike road freight, the decarbonization of rail freight has not been approached with the same urgency, largely due to the perception that rail is already a cleaner mode of transport. However, rail will be essential in decarbonizing the freight industry, as it represents the most efficient solution for long-haul bulk transport over land.

Ultimately, collaboration between the road and rail sectors will be crucial for reducing emissions and achieving net-zero targets. Intermodal transport will allow both sectors to leverage their strengths: trains will handle longer distances, while trucks will focus on last-mile deliveries in residential or remote areas.

Key Highlights

• Increasing efficiencies and optimization measures will represent the fastest and most cost-effective way to reduce emissions from land freight.
• Electrification will offer huge decarbonizing potential to both rail and road freight transportation as a substitute from traditional ICEs (internal combustion engines).
• The utilization of alternative fuels such as FAME biodiesel, HVO, and synthetic fuels will provide an interim solution for emission reductions whilst the industry awaits further development of more innovative technologies such as hydrogen.
• Hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen combustion engines will offer great decarbonization potential for the land freight industry by replacing hydrocarbon-based fuels with the input of hydrogen. Widespread adoption of the technology is currently hindered by the high costs of both electricity and new infrastructure.
• Ultimately, collaboration between road and rail will yield the biggest results. Going forward, land freight is likely to be intermodal, i.e.: a combination of both modes of transport, as trains are better suited for long-haul, and trucks are able to cover the first and last kilometres with better flexibility.

Scope

• Global CO2 emissions from the road and rail freight industry, relevant policies for the decarbonization of the industry, analysis of strategies adopted by major players in the road and rail freight industry - including case studies, analysis of different decarbonizing technologies such as electrification, adoption of alternative fuels, and hydrogen.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the industry and assess who the biggest players in land freight are and what they are doing to reduce emissions.
• Develop market insight of the major technologies used to decarbonize land freight through case studies from industry leaders in both road and rail.
• Understand adoption trends of emerging low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen-powered rail.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• Road and rail freight carbon emissions
• Introduction to energy transition technologies
• Assessing the decarbonization potential of energy transition technologies
• Main challenges to decarbonizing road and rail freight
• Road and rail freight net-zero emission targets
• Electrifying road and rail freight
• Alternative fuels in road and rail freight: biodiesel and synthetic fuels
• Hydrogen in road and rail freight
• The way forward: sector cooperation

List of Tables

• Decarbonization potential, development stage, suitability for rail, and suitability for road for electrification, alternative fuels, and hydrogen.
• Advantages and disadvantages for biofuels, synthetic fuels, BEV, FCEV, overhead charging.
• Long-term and interim targets for top 10 heavy-duty companies
• Long-term and interim targets for top 10 railway companies
• Railway companies' interim strategies
• Advantages and disadvantages for road and rail

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by sector, 2019-2022
• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• CO2 emissions from rail and NZE scenario, 2010-2030
• CO2 emissions from heavy freight truck and NZE scenario, 2010-2030
• Road freight CO2 emissions by heavy duty trucks by region, 2020
• HDV production forecast by fuel type, 2024-2035
• FAME biodiesel production capacity, 2021-2030
• Renewable diesel production capacity, 2021-2030
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Global low-carbon hydrogen capacity, 2024-2030
• Hydrogen plants by end-use, 2024 YTD