SAF是航空业的未来之路

航空业约占运输相关排放量的10%。世界各国政府已经设定了净零目标，必须采取脱碳策略。 SAF 被公认为航空业脱碳的关键技术，加氢处理和电转液（PtL）是 SAF 生产的主要途径。公营和私营部门致力于透过设定SAF混合义务和使用目标来实现净零目标。

加氢处理目前发挥着重要作用，因为它易于获得并且是目前最便宜的技术。但他们面临原料供应的问题。因此，从长远来看，随着低碳氢和碳捕获基础设施的成熟，PtL 合成燃料可能会发挥更大的作用。许多国家都已实施 SAF 混合义务，而在尚未实施强制混合义务的国家，许多航空公司也已製定了自愿混合义务。航空公司计划透过与 SAF 製造商签订长期贸易协议来实现这一目标。预计2020年至2030年间，SAF产能的年复合成长率将达到约68%，其中亚洲、北美和欧洲是主要供应地区。在需求方面，预计北美、欧洲和英国将成为SAF消费的主要市场。

主要亮点

• 民航业是特别难以实现脱碳的产业，其长途旅行和高能量密度要求对电气化等能源转型策略构成了障碍。永续航空燃料（SAF）被认为是实现减排的关键技术。更具体地说，加氢处理和 HEFA 目前是生产 SAF 的主要途径，但由于原料供应有限，预计其他途径（例如电转液（PtL））将在长期内占据主导地位。
• 英国、巴西、日本、新加坡、韩国、印度、印尼和欧盟 27 国等国家已经实施了燃料混合规定。
• 到2050年，亚洲、北美和欧洲将成为 SAF 的主要供应地区。
• 到2050年，北美、欧洲和英国将成为 SAF 消费的主要地区和国家。
• 航空公司目前的策略是与 SAF 製造商签订长期贸易合约，以确保他们拥有足够的SAF 来履行国家混合义务并在2050年实现净零目标。

本报告对全球航空业进行了分析，并提供了有关 SAF 在脱碳中的作用、SAF 生产途径、国家 SAF 混合义务以及 SAF 生产能力前景的资讯。

目录

• 执行摘要
• 航空对气候变迁的影响
• 新加坡武装部队简报
• SAF 市场的挑战
• ASTM 核准的SAF 生产途径
• SAF生产经历技术改造
• PtL 技术将有助于长期扩大 SAF
• 政策展望
• SAF 混合债务概述
• 其他措施与政策发展
• 供需前景
• 基于进行和即将开展的计画的SAF 生产前景
• 2030年生产能力最大的SAF 计画
• 主要 SAF 供应市场
• 主要 SAF 需求市场
• SAF 行业的公司
• SAF 的当前和未来市场领导者
• 航空业的SAF 采用目标
• 讯号
• 公司文件中对 SAF 的引用
• SAF 交易活动快照
• 联络我们

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid) as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Both the public and private sectors have mobilized by setting blending mandates and targets for SAF utilization to help reach net-zero goals.

The aviation industry contributes to approximately 10% of all transport-related emissions. With net-zero targets being set by governments around the world, decarbonization strategies need to be adopted. SAFs have been identified as a key technology to decarbonize the aviation industry, with hydrotreatment and Power to Liquid as the dominant pathways for SAF production. Hydrotreatment is playing a major role at present, as the technology is readily available and currently the most affordable, however, it faces issues of feedstock availability. For this reason, Power to Liquid synthetic fuels will play a greater role in the long-term, when low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture infrastructure will have reached maturity. A number of countries have set blending mandates for SAF usage, and, more prevalently in countries where mandates have not been set in place yet, numerous airlines have also set voluntary blending mandates. Airlines are planning on reaching their targets by signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers. With SAF capacity projected to grow at a CAGR of almost 68% between 2020 and 2030, Asia, North America, and Europe have been identified as the key regions providing the majority of said supply. On the demand side, North America, Europe, and the UK are expected to become the dominant markets for SAF consumption.

Key Highlights

• Commercial aviation represents a particularly difficult sector to decarbonize, with long distance journeys and high energy density requirements posing a barrier to energy transition strategies such as electrification, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions. More specifically, hydrotreatment and HEFA are the currently the dominant pathways to producing SAF, however, due to their limited feedstock availability, other pathways such as PtL (Power to Liquid) will become the prevalent ones in the long-term.
• Countries such as UK, Brazil, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, Indonesia and EU-27 have already enforced blending mandates.
• Asia, North America, and Europe will be the dominant regions for SAF supply through 2050.
• North America, Europe, and UK will be the top regions and countries for SAF consumption through 2050.
• Airlines' strategies currently consist of securing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers so that they may have sufficient SAF to abide by countries' blending mandates and meet net-zero targets in the run up to 2050.

Scope

• Aviation's current emissions and emission targets.
• The role SAF will play in decarbonizing the aviation sector.
• Overview of different pathways to produce SAF with particular focus to hydrotreatment and synthetic fuels.
• Overview of countries' blending mandates or support for SAFs.
• SAF capacity outlook, including upcoming biggest SAF plants by 2030 capacity, and largest producers of SAF.
• Overview of geographical distribution of present and future SAF demand and supply.
• Overview of airlines' strategies to reduce emissions.
• Overview of signals such as company filings and recent deals as a measure to understand micromovements in the SAF market.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify market trends within the aviation industry with regards to decarbonization efforts to meet net-zero targets and abide by countries' blending mandates for SAF usage.
• Identify key technologies for the decarbonization of the aviation industry, with particular focus on hydrotreatment and PtL (Power to Liquid).
• Identify which countries have already issued blending mandates, and what other countries are doing to support the development of the technology.
• Identify which countries will become the largest suppliers and consumers of SAFs.
• Develop market insight into what corporations are doing to future-proof their business, including oil and gas companies devoting part of their capacity to SAF production, and airlines signing long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers.
• Stay up to date with the latest deals within the sector, from mergers and acquisitions to venture financing, and private equity deals.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Aviation's Contribution to Climate Change
• SAF Briefing
• SAF market challenges
• ASTM approved SAF production pathways
• SAF production will undergo a technology shift
• Power to liquid technology will help scale SAFs in the long term
• Policy Outlook
• An overview of SAF blending mandates
• Additional initiatives and policy developments
• Supply and Demand Outlook
• SAF production outlook based on active and upcoming projects
• The largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• Key SAF supply markets
• Key SAF demand markets
• SAF Industry Players
• Current and projected market leaders in SAFs
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry
• Signals
• Mentions of SAFs within company filings
• A snapshot of SAF deal activity
• Contact us

List of Tables

• Overview of national SAF blending mandates
• Overview of national SAF support from countries lacking blending mandates
• Largest SAF projects by their 2030 capacity
• SAF adoption targets for the airline industry

List of Figures

• CO2 emissions by transport sub-sector in 2022
• Direct CO2 emissions from aviation in the net zero scenario, 2000-2030
• SAF suppl by technology, 2023 and 2030
• Supply by feedstock type, 2020-2050
• Upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuels and project count, 2025-2030
• Green hydrogen production by development stage, 2024-2030
• Carbon capture capacity by development stage, 2024-2030
• SAF production outlook, 2020-2030
• RD vs SAF capacity outlook, 2020-2030
• SAF supply by region, 2020-2050
• SAD demand by country, 2020-2050
• Top SAF producers by 2023 capacity
• Top SAF producers by 2030 capacity
• SAF mentions by all companies, 2018-2024
• Top oil and gas players by mentions of SAFs in company filings, 2018-2024