北美电力和可再生能源 - 短期展望（2022 年 4 月）：由于商品价格上涨，电价持续上涨

2021年下半年，在天然气价格同比大幅上涨的背景下，电价飙升。虽然 2022 年冬季飙升主要局限于东北地区，但天然气价格期货在过去一个月呈指数级增长，为全国范围内的上涨提供了可能性。

由于未来几个月天然气价格接近 7 美元/MMBtu，预计天然气价格将保持高位直到 2023 年。与此同时，将取消大量燃煤发电，主要是在 PJM 和 MISO，采用风能和太阳能发电，预计将继续向可再生能源过渡。

本报告调查北美的电力和可再生能源，包括以下内容。

• 对天然气基本面的评论
• 多种燃气价格/需求情景对电价的影响
• 入驻最大发电企业亮点
• 未来输电工程

Report Summary:

The second half of 2021 was marked by power prices surging on the back of strong year-on-year increases in natural gas prices. After winter 2022's excitement was confined mostly to the northeast, gas price futures have taken off over the past month, creating upside potential across the country. With natural gas prices trading near $7/mmbtu for the next few months, expect volatility risk to remain high well into 2023. Over that same time period, the stack will continue its transition towards renewables as a large swath of coal capacity retires, primarily in PJM and MISO, while wind and solar projects are slated to come online in their stead.

Features included in this short-term outlook:

• Comments on natural gas fundamentals

• Power prices impact from multiple gas price and demand scenarios

• Highlights for some of the largest incoming new generators

• Upcoming transmission projects to monitor.