美国东南部的电力和可再生能源——2022 年 4 月短期展望：价格上涨推高电价

2021年下半年，在天然气价格同比大幅上涨的背景下，电价飙升。 2022 年冬季的上涨主要局限于美国东北部，但过去一个月天然气价格期货暴涨，增加了全国范围内上涨的可能性。

预计到 2023 年，天然气价格将保持高位，因为未来几个月天然气价格将在 7 美元/百万英热单位左右交易。同时，大量燃煤发电将被淘汰，主要是PJM和MISO，取而代之的是风能和太阳能，预计转向可再生能源。

本报告调查了美国东南部的电力和可再生能源，包括以下内容：

本期短期展望内容

• 对天然气基本面的评论
• 多种燃气价格和需求情景对电价的影响
• 入驻最大发电企业亮点
• 未来输电工程

Report Summary:

The second half of 2021 was marked by power prices surging on the back of strong year-on-year increases in natural gas prices. After winter 2022's excitement was confined mostly to the northeast, gas price futures have taken off over the past month, creating upside potential across the country. With natural gas prices trading near $7/mmbtu for the next few months, expect volatility risk to remain high well into 2023. Over that same time period, the stack will continue its transition towards renewables as a large swath of coal capacity retires, primarily in PJM and MISO, while wind and solar projects are slated to come online in their stead.

Features included in this short-term outlook:

• Comments on natural gas fundamentals

• Power prices impact from multiple gas price and demand scenarios

• Highlights for some of the largest incoming new generators

• Upcoming transmission projects to monitor.