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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1393621
欧洲能源价格（2023 年 11 月）Europe Energy Prices (November 2023) |
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报告概述
这项研究提供了 2050 年欧洲燃料、碳和电力价格的全面展望。 儘管天然气价格正在走软，但预计市场将持续紧张，直到 2025 年新一波液化天然气供应涌入市场。 2026年至2029年液化天然气供应量大幅增加将重新平衡市场并维持价格较低，直到2030年恢復。 由于天然气价格下降、短期电力需求减少以及再生能源安装速度加快，预计到 2030 年电价将下降。
再生能源回收价格的蚕食和相关的限电风险将在 2030 年代初期恶化，导致产能成长放缓。 然而，随着 2030 年代的进展，由于灵活资源（供需方）的成长和碳价格的上涨，价格水准预计将维持不变。
Report Summary:
“Europe energy prices” provides a comprehensive outlook for fuels, carbon and power prices in Europe to 2050. Gas prices have softened in this view, but market tightness will persist until 2025 when a new wave of LNG supply hits the market. Substantial LNG supply growth between 2026 and 2029 rebalances the market, keeping prices low, before a rebound from 2030. With lower gas prices, weaker power demand in the short term, and renewable build-out accelerating, power prices are forecast to decrease to 2030.
The cannibalization of renewable capture prices and associated curtailment risks worsen in the early 2030s, resulting in a moderation of capacity growth. However, as the 2030s progress, the growth of flexible resources (supply and demand-side) and rising carbon prices, will sustain price levels.
