2025 年 1 月欧洲能源价格

报告概述

欧洲能源价格提供了到 2050 年欧洲燃料、碳和电力价格的全面展望。原油价格将比春季预测的每桶低2至3美元，需求将在2031年达到10,870万桶/日的峰值，然后开始下降。风险包括中东紧张局势和OPEC+战略。由于地缘政治风险，天然气价格仍然不稳定，但 2026 年至 2029 年液化天然气供应的增加可能有助于压低价格。由于欧盟需求减弱，煤炭价格持续低迷。碳价将保持疲软，但将受到市场规则和天然气价格的支撑。到2030年，电价仍将维持高位，之后因脱碳而下降。

Report Summary:

"Europe energy prices" provides a comprehensive outlook for fuels, carbon and power prices in Europe to 2050. Oil prices are set to weaken by $2-3/bbl compared to spring forecasts, with demand peaking at 108.7 mb/d in 2031 before declining. Risks include Middle East tensions and OPEC+ strategies. Gas prices remain volatile due to geopolitical risks, but LNG supply growth from 2026-2029 will pressure prices down. Coal prices stay suppressed amid falling EU demand. Carbon prices remain weak but are supported by market rules and gas prices. Power prices stay high until 2030 before falling with decarbonization.