炼乳或淡乳市场机会、成长动力、产业趋势分析及 2025 - 2034 年预测

2024年，全球炼乳或淡乳市场规模达75亿美元，预计2034年将以4.6%的复合年增长率成长，达到117亿美元。耐储存乳製品的日益普及，尤其是在冷藏设施匮乏的地区，推动了这一成长。消费者越来越多地寻求适合烹饪和烘焙的保质期较长的牛奶替代品，以及将其作为鲜奶的替代品。需求主要来自家庭和餐饮服务业，包括麵包店、咖啡馆和甜点店。

此外，随着方便食品和即食甜点的兴起，不断变化的食品趋势重新激发了人们对炼乳食谱的兴趣，尤其是在亚太地区和拉丁美洲。新口味、低糖选择以及植物性或无乳糖替代品等创新正在提升炼乳产品的吸引力。改进的包装解决方案和不断扩展的线上零售通路正在提升产品的可及性和便利性，在鲜奶和非乳製品乳製品的竞争中，支持市场稳步扩张。随着已开发地区和新兴地区的现代和传统饮食习惯的演变，炼乳市场仍保持强劲成长。

2024年，甜炼乳占据了35.2%的市场份额，价值26亿美元。由于精准的营销策略和符合消费者偏好的产品创新，这一细分市场持续蓬勃发展。虽然原味炼乳在烹饪应用中仍然广受欢迎，但巧克力、焦糖或香草等口味的炼乳正日益受到青睐，尤其是在追求奢华享受的年轻消费者群体中。

罐装包装市场在2024年占据31.5%的市场份额，预计复合年增长率将达到4%，从而扩大其消费者覆盖范围。儘管罐装因其耐用性和保鲜能力仍然是淡奶的主要包装选择，但其较重的重量和更高的生产成本意味着增长将较为平稳而非快速。同时，采用无菌技术的利乐纸盒包装因其重量轻、可回收且无需冷藏即可保存牛奶而越来越受欢迎，吸引了具有环保意识的消费者。

2024年，欧洲炼乳或淡奶市场占34.3%的市占率。区域消费模式和烹饪传统对市场动态影响巨大。欧洲市场需求稳定，这得益于淡奶在烹饪和加工食品中的广泛使用。北美市场成熟，成长稳定，主要受烘焙和方便食品产业的推动。相较之下，亚太地区正经历快速扩张，这得益于城市化、饮食习惯的改变以及对使用这些乳製品的西式甜点和饮料的需求增长。

全球炼乳或淡奶产业的主要参与者包括荷兰皇家菲仕兰公司 (Friesland Campina NV)、爱氏晨曦食品 (Arla Foods)、达能公司 (Danone SA)、雀巢公司 (Nestle SA) 和 JM Smucker 公司（鹰牌）。为了巩固其在炼乳或淡奶市场的地位，各公司正专注于产品创新并拓展口味种类，以满足多样化的消费者口味。着重开发低糖、植物基和无乳糖产品，以应对日益增长的健康和饮食问题。各公司正在投资永续包装解决方案，例如可回收纸盒和轻量化容器，以符合环保目标并满足消费者偏好。线上销售管道的策略性扩张提高了冷藏设施有限地区的产品可近性。此外，与食品服务提供者和零售商的合作有助于扩大市场覆盖范围。

目录

第一章：方法论与范围

第二章：执行摘要

第三章：行业洞察

• 产业生态系统分析
  • 供应商格局
  • 利润率
  • 每个阶段的增值
  • 影响价值链的因素
  • 中断
• 产业衝击力
  • 成长动力
  • 产业陷阱与挑战
  • 市场机会
• 成长潜力分析
• 监管格局
  • 北美洲
  • 欧洲
  • 亚太地区
  • 拉丁美洲
  • 中东和非洲
• 波特的分析
• PESTEL分析
• 价格趋势
  • 按地区
  • 按产品
• 未来市场趋势
• 技术和创新格局
  • 当前的技术趋势
  • 新兴技术
• 专利格局
• 贸易统计（HS编码）（註：仅提供重点国家的贸易统计资料）
  • 主要进口国
  • 主要出口国
• 永续性和环境方面
  • 永续实践
  • 减少废弃物的策略
  • 生产中的能源效率
  • 环保倡议

第四章：竞争格局

• 介绍
• 公司市占率分析
  • 按地区
    • 北美洲
    • 欧洲
    • 亚太地区
    • 拉丁美洲
    • MEA
• 公司矩阵分析
• 主要市场参与者的竞争分析
• 竞争定位矩阵
• 关键进展
  • 併购
  • 伙伴关係与合作
  • 新产品发布
  • 扩张计划

第五章：市场估计与预测：依产品类型，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趋势
• 甜炼乳
• 无糖炼乳（淡奶）
• 调味炼乳
• 低脂和无脂版本
• 有机炼乳和淡奶
• 其他的

第六章：市场估计与预测：依包装类型，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趋势
• 罐头
• 利乐包装
• 瓶子
• 管
• 袋装
• 其他的

第七章：市场估计与预测：按配销通路，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趋势
• 超市和大卖场
• 便利商店
• 网路零售
• 专卖店
• 餐饮业
• 其他的

第八章：市场估计与预测：按应用，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趋势
• 烘焙和糖果
• 饮料
  • 咖啡和茶
  • 冰沙和奶昔
  • 其他饮料
• 甜点和冰淇淋
• 婴儿食品
• 酱汁和汤
• 直接消费
• 其他的

第九章：市场估计与预测：依最终用途，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趋势
• 家庭/零售消费者
• 食品服务业
• 食品加工业
• 其他的

第十章：市场估计与预测：按地区，2021 - 2034 年

• 主要趋势
• 北美洲
  • 我们
  • 加拿大
• 欧洲
  • 德国
  • 英国
  • 法国
  • 西班牙
  • 义大利
  • 荷兰
  • 欧洲其他地区
• 亚太地区
  • 中国
  • 印度
  • 日本
  • 澳洲
  • 韩国
  • 亚太其他地区
• 拉丁美洲
  • 巴西
  • 墨西哥
  • 阿根廷
  • 拉丁美洲其他地区
• 中东和非洲
  • 沙乌地阿拉伯
  • 南非
  • 阿联酋
  • 中东和非洲其他地区

第 11 章：公司简介

• Nestle SA
• The JM Smucker Company (Eagle Brand)
• Arla Foods amba
• FrieslandCampina NV
• Goya Foods, Inc.
• Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.
• Borden Dairy Company
• Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
• Danone SA
• Amul (Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.)
• California Dairies, Inc.
• Almarai Company
• Saputo Inc.
• Alaska Milk Corporation (Royal FrieslandCampina)

The Global Condensed Or Evaporated Milk Market was valued at USD 7.5 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% to reach USD 11.7 billion by 2034. The rising popularity of shelf-stable dairy products, especially in regions with limited refrigeration access, is driving this growth. Consumers increasingly seek long-lasting milk alternatives suitable for cooking and baking, and as substitutes for fresh milk. Demand stems largely from household use and the food service sector, including bakeries, cafes, and dessert outlets.

Additionally, shifting food trends have sparked renewed interest in recipes incorporating condensed milk, especially across Asia-Pacific and Latin America, fueled by the growth of convenience foods and ready-to-eat desserts. Innovations such as new flavors, low-sugar options, and plant-based or lactose-free alternatives are broadening the product's appeal. Enhanced packaging solutions and expanded online retail availability are improving access and convenience, supporting steady market expansion amid competition from fresh and non-dairy milk products. The market remains robust as modern and traditional diets evolve in both developed and emerging regions.

In 2024, sweetened condensed milk accounted for a 35.2% share, valued at USD 2.6 billion. This segment continues to thrive due to focused marketing efforts and product innovation that align with consumer preferences. While unflavored condensed milk retains significant popularity for cooking applications, flavored variants-such as those with chocolate, caramel, or vanilla-are gaining traction, especially among younger consumers seeking indulgent treats.

The canned packaging segment held a 31.5% share in 2024 and is projected to grow at a 4% CAGR, expanding its consumer reach. Although cans remain the dominant packaging choice for evaporated milk due to their durability and ability to maintain product freshness, their heavier weight and higher production costs mean growth is steady rather than rapid. Meanwhile, Tetra Pak cartons using aseptic technology are becoming more popular because they are lightweight, recyclable, and preserve milk without refrigeration, appealing to environmentally conscious consumers.

Europe Condensed or Evaporated Milk Market held a 34.3% share in 2024. Regional consumption patterns and culinary traditions heavily influence market dynamics. The European market maintains steady demand driven by the widespread use of evaporated milk in cooking and processed foods. North America represents a mature market with steady growth, largely fueled by the baking and convenience food sectors. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid expansion, propelled by urbanization, changing eating habits, and increased demand for Western-style desserts and beverages that use these dairy products.

Key players in the Global Condensed or Evaporated Milk Industry include Friesland Campina N.V., Arla Foods, Danone S.A., Nestle S.A., and The J.M. Smucker Company (Eagle Brand). To strengthen their position in the condensed or evaporated milk market, companies are focusing on product innovation and expanding flavor varieties to meet diverse consumer tastes. Emphasis on developing low-sugar, plant-based, and lactose-free options addresses growing health and dietary concerns. Firms are investing in sustainable packaging solutions, such as recyclable cartons and lightweight containers, to align with environmental goals and consumer preferences. Strategic expansion of online sales channels improves product accessibility in regions with limited refrigeration. Additionally, partnerships with food service providers and retailers help broaden market reach.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology & Scope

• 1.1 Market scope and definition
• 1.2 Research design
  • 1.2.1 Research approach
  • 1.2.2 Data collection methods
• 1.3 Data mining sources
  • 1.3.1 Global
  • 1.3.2 Regional/Country
• 1.4 Base estimates and calculations
  • 1.4.1 Base year calculation
  • 1.4.2 Key trends for market estimation
• 1.5 Primary research and validation
  • 1.5.1 Primary sources
• 1.6 Forecast model
• 1.7 Research assumptions and limitations

Chapter 2 Executive Summary

• 2.1 Industry 360⁰ synopsis
• 2.2 Key market trends
  • 2.2.1 Regional
  • 2.2.2 Product
  • 2.2.3 End use
• 2.3 TAM Analysis, 2025-2034
• 2.4 CXO perspectives: Strategic imperatives
  • 2.4.1 Executive decision points
  • 2.4.2 Critical success factors
• 2.5 Future outlook and strategic recommendations

Chapter 3 Industry Insights

• 3.1 Industry ecosystem analysis
  • 3.1.1 Supplier landscape
  • 3.1.2 Profit margin
  • 3.1.3 Value addition at each stage
  • 3.1.4 Factor affecting the value chain
  • 3.1.5 Disruptions
• 3.2 Industry impact forces
  • 3.2.1 Growth drivers
  • 3.2.2 Industry pitfalls and challenges
  • 3.2.3 Market opportunities
• 3.3 Growth potential analysis
• 3.4 Regulatory landscape
  • 3.4.1 North America
  • 3.4.2 Europe
  • 3.4.3 Asia Pacific
  • 3.4.4 Latin America
  • 3.4.5 Middle East & Africa
• 3.5 Porter's analysis
• 3.6 PESTEL analysis
  • 3.6.1 Technology and innovation landscape
  • 3.6.2 Current technological trends
  • 3.6.3 Emerging technologies
• 3.7 Price trends
  • 3.7.1 By region
  • 3.7.2 By product
• 3.8 Future market trends
• 3.9 Technology and innovation landscape
  • 3.9.1 Current technological trends
  • 3.9.2 Emerging technologies
• 3.10 Patent landscape
• 3.11 Trade statistics (HS code) (Note: the trade statistics will be provided for key countries only)
  • 3.11.1 Major importing countries
  • 3.11.2 Major exporting countries
• 3.12 Sustainability and environmental aspects
  • 3.12.1 Sustainable practices
  • 3.12.2 Waste reduction strategies
  • 3.12.3 Energy efficiency in production
  • 3.12.4 Eco-friendly Initiatives

Chapter 4 Competitive Landscape, 2024

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Company market share analysis
  • 4.2.1 By region
    • 4.2.1.1 North America
    • 4.2.1.2 Europe
    • 4.2.1.3 Asia Pacific
    • 4.2.1.4 LATAM
    • 4.2.1.5 MEA
• 4.3 Company matrix analysis
• 4.4 Competitive analysis of major market players
• 4.5 Competitive positioning matrix
• 4.6 Key developments
  • 4.6.1 Mergers & acquisitions
  • 4.6.2 Partnerships & collaborations
  • 4.6.3 New product launches
  • 4.6.4 Expansion plans

Chapter 5 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Product Type, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 5.1 Key trends
• 5.2 Sweetened condensed milk
• 5.3 Unsweetened condensed milk (Evaporated milk)
• 5.4 Flavored condensed milk
• 5.5 Low-fat & fat-free variants
• 5.6 Organic condensed & evaporated milk
• 5.7 Others

Chapter 6 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Packaging Type, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 6.1 Key trends
• 6.2 Cans
• 6.3 Tetra packs
• 6.4 Bottles
• 6.5 Tubes
• 6.6 Pouches
• 6.7 Others

Chapter 7 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Distribution Channel, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 7.1 Key trends
• 7.2 Supermarkets & Hypermarkets
• 7.3 Convenience stores
• 7.4 Online retail
• 7.5 Specialty stores
• 7.6 Foodservice industry
• 7.7 Others

Chapter 8 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Application, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 8.1 Key trends
• 8.2 Bakery & confectionery
• 8.3 Beverages
  • 8.3.1 Coffee & tea
  • 8.3.2 Smoothies & milkshakes
  • 8.3.3 Other beverages
• 8.4 Desserts & ice cream
• 8.5 Infant food
• 8.6 Sauces & soups
• 8.7 Direct consumption
• 8.8 Others

Chapter 9 Market Estimates and Forecast, By End Use, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 9.1 Key trends
• 9.2 Household/retail consumers
• 9.3 Food service industry
• 9.4 Food processing industry
• 9.5 Others

Chapter 10 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Region, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 10.1 Key trends
• 10.2 North America
  • 10.2.1 U.S.
  • 10.2.2 Canada
• 10.3 Europe
  • 10.3.1 Germany
  • 10.3.2 UK
  • 10.3.3 France
  • 10.3.4 Spain
  • 10.3.5 Italy
  • 10.3.6 Netherlands
  • 10.3.7 Rest of Europe
• 10.4 Asia Pacific
  • 10.4.1 China
  • 10.4.2 India
  • 10.4.3 Japan
  • 10.4.4 Australia
  • 10.4.5 South Korea
  • 10.4.6 Rest of Asia Pacific
• 10.5 Latin America
  • 10.5.1 Brazil
  • 10.5.2 Mexico
  • 10.5.3 Argentina
  • 10.5.4 Rest of Latin America
• 10.6 Middle East and Africa
  • 10.6.1 Saudi Arabia
  • 10.6.2 South Africa
  • 10.6.3 UAE
  • 10.6.4 Rest of Middle East and Africa

Chapter 11 Company Profiles

• 11.1 Nestle S.A.
• 11.2 The J.M. Smucker Company (Eagle Brand)
• 11.3 Arla Foods amba
• 11.4 FrieslandCampina N.V.
• 11.5 Goya Foods, Inc.
• 11.6 Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.
• 11.7 Borden Dairy Company
• 11.8 Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
• 11.9 Danone S.A.
• 11.10 Amul (Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.)
• 11.11 California Dairies, Inc.
• 11.12 Almarai Company
• 11.13 Saputo Inc.
• 11.14 Alaska Milk Corporation (Royal FrieslandCampina)