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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1919506
大型主机现代化与迁移服务市场:按服务类型、组织规模、部署模式、迁移类型和产业垂直领域划分 - 全球预测 2026-2032 年Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market by Service Type, Organization Size, Deployment Model, Migration Type, Industry Vertical - Global Forecast 2026-2032 |
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预计到 2025 年,大型主机现代化和迁移服务市场价值将达到 48.6 亿美元,到 2026 年将成长至 51.7 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 77.4 亿美元,复合年增长率为 6.86%。
| 关键市场统计数据 | |
|---|---|
| 基准年 2025 | 48.6亿美元 |
| 预计年份:2026年 | 51.7亿美元 |
| 预测年份 2032 | 77.4亿美元 |
| 复合年增长率 (%) | 6.86% |
随着各组织重新评估传统大型主机在其数位化策略中的作用,企业运算格局正经历持续变革。企业主管面临双重挑战:既保留大型主机提供的关键业务逻辑和事务完整性,也要释放现代平台的敏捷性、成本效益和创新潜力。这种矛盾正在推动一波现代化倡议,其中专案管治、风险管理和技术选择必须整合,以确保服务连续性和可预测的业务成果。
重塑大型主机现代化进程的因素不仅限于技术层面,还涵盖组织架构、供应商经济效益和人才动态等多个面向。值得关注的趋势包括:新开发专案转向云端原生架构,而现有事务系统则透过重构和平台迁移进行选择性现代化改造。与这些技术变革相呼应的是,采购惯例也在发生显着变化,各组织越来越重视基于结果的合约和託管服务,以降低内部执行风险,并将生命週期责任转移给专业供应商。
2025年美国关税政策变化带来的累积影响,为现代化计画的成本计算和策略规划增添了新的维度。关税调整会影响硬体、进口软体设备以及某些第三方基础设施组件的总到岸成本,进而改变资本筹资策略和供应商选择标准。因此,各组织正在重新调整采购决策,优先考虑软体驱动型服务和云端消费模式,以应对跨境成本差异并减少对硬体进口的依赖。
要製定能够反映组织优先事项和技术实际情况的现代化策略,对细分市场驱动因素的深入理解至关重要。根据组织规模,市场可分为大型企业和中小企业。这种区分非常重要,因为大型企业通常优先考虑持续营运、整合管治和较保守的迁移阶段,而中小企业则倾向于优先考虑成本可预测性、託管服务和快速实现价值。根据部署模式,市场可分为云端部署、混合部署和本地部署。云端部署又可细分为私有云端云和公共云端,它们对安全态势、合规性和运维支援提出了不同的要求。
区域趋势对现代化方案、供应商生态系统和熟练人才的可用性有显着影响。在美洲,企业专案通常以高度重视云端采用、柔软性的商业合约和成熟的託管服务市场为特征,因此许多组织都在寻求混合模式,以平衡旧有系统的可靠性和云端的敏捷性。在欧洲、中东和非洲,管理体制和资料居住要求塑造了架构,而供应商生态系统的区域差异则推动了更多样化的采用模式和在地化的伙伴关係。在亚太地区,快速的数位化、各市场成熟度的差异以及对成本效益型扩展的关注,正在推动公共云端采用和本地现代化相结合的模式,尤其是在那些对延迟和主权问题更为关注的地区。
生态系中的主要企业在咨询、工具、迁移执行和长期营运管理方面各有所长。一些供应商专注于大型主机转型工具和自动化程式码转换功能,以加速平台重构和重构;而另一些供应商则以结果为导向的託管服务脱颖而出,这些服务能够承担营运风险并提供可预测的营运成本。目前存在着明显的产业细分:一方面,一些公司专注于提供快速工作负载迁移的「即装即用」功能;另一方面,一些公司则提供全面的云端原生转型重塑服务。
产业领导者应采取审慎的、以结果为导向的方法,在循序渐进的进展与策略目标之间取得平衡。首先,他们应制定现代化策略,根据业务影响和风险确定关键工作负载的优先级,并在推进多年平台重构倡议的同时,确定短期成果。其次,他们应优先考虑将奖励与可衡量结果挂钩的合约模式,例如针对营运绩效的服务水准协议以及每个迁移阶段的明确验收标准。第三,他们应投资于技能转移项目,将定向招募与强化技能提升、学徒制和知识体系化相结合,以采用现代工具链并转移组织内部的专业知识。
本执行摘要依据的研究整合了第一手和第二手资料,形成了一种严谨且可重复的调查方法。第一手资料包括企业技术领导者、专案经理和供应商主管的结构化访谈,以及各行业现代化计划的定性案例分析。这些访谈旨在揭示影响迁移方法选择和服务供应商选择的执行挑战、管治实务和决策标准。
总而言之,大型主机现代化是一项策略挑战,需要在技术、采购和营运的交叉领域做出谨慎的决策。成功的企业透过采用模组化迁移策略、选择能够提供以结果为导向的合作伙伴,以及建立管治和技能转移机制来确保业务连续性,从而实现这一目标。贸易政策趋势,例如2025年美国关税政策,增加了采购计画的复杂性,并凸显了製定基于情境的财务和筹资策略的必要性。
The Mainframe Modernization & Migration Service Market was valued at USD 4.86 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 5.17 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.86%, reaching USD 7.74 billion by 2032.
| KEY MARKET STATISTICS | |
|---|---|
| Base Year [2025] | USD 4.86 billion |
| Estimated Year [2026] | USD 5.17 billion |
| Forecast Year [2032] | USD 7.74 billion |
| CAGR (%) | 6.86% |
The landscape of enterprise computing is undergoing a sustained transformation as organizations reassess the role of legacy mainframes in their digital strategies. Executive leaders face a dual imperative: preserve the critical business logic and transactional integrity that mainframes deliver while unlocking the agility, cost efficiencies, and innovation potential of modern platforms. This tension is driving a wave of modernization initiatives where program governance, risk management, and technology selection must converge to ensure continuity of service and predictable business outcomes.
In this context, the case for modernization is rarely binary; instead, it is highly contextual and shaped by regulatory constraints, skill availability, application criticality, and integration complexity. Decision makers need concise intelligence that clarifies trade-offs between lift-and-shift approaches and deeper rearchitecting investments, and that illuminates the operational impacts of moving workloads across cloud, hybrid, and on-premises environments. As enterprises embark on these journeys, they require frameworks that align technical choices with measurable business objectives, minimizing disruption while preserving mission-critical functions.
The forces reshaping mainframe modernization extend beyond technology into organizational design, vendor economics, and talent dynamics. Emerging patterns include a pronounced shift toward cloud-native architectures for new development while existing transactional systems are selectively modernized through refactoring and replatforming. Alongside these technical shifts, there is an observable evolution in procurement practices: organizations increasingly favor outcome-based contracting and managed services that reduce internal execution risk and transfer lifecycle responsibilities to specialist providers.
Concurrently, labor market changes are accelerating the adoption of automation and tooling that abstract legacy complexity and codify institutional knowledge. This movement reduces dependency on scarce legacy skills but requires rigorous change management to embed new operating models. Interoperability priorities are prompting investments in API-led architectures and data fabrics that enable gradual migration without disrupting customer-facing services. Taken together, these transformative shifts create a practical roadmap where incremental modernization, governed by clear KPIs and supported by strategic vendor partnerships, yields sustainable modernization outcomes.
The cumulative impact of tariff policy changes announced for 2025 in the United States introduces a new dimension to the cost calculus and strategic planning of modernization programs. Tariff adjustments influence the total landed cost of hardware, imported software appliances, and certain third-party infrastructure components, thereby altering capital procurement strategies and vendor selection criteria. As a result, organizations are recalibrating sourcing decisions-favoring software-enabled services and cloud consumption models that internalize cross-border cost volatility and reduce exposure to hardware importation.
In response, procurement teams and architects are re-evaluating vendor localization, supply chain resilience, and contractual protections. Some enterprises are accelerating cloud-first migration roadmaps to avoid capital-intensive upgrades that would be subjected to tariff-induced price shifts, while others are negotiating longer-term fixed-fee arrangements with providers to stabilize operating cost projections. Additionally, tariff-related uncertainty is prompting a closer look at regional deployment options and the potential benefits of repatriating certain functions to domestic partners to mitigate policy risk. These dynamics underscore the importance of incorporating macroeconomic and trade policy scenarios into modernization planning to preserve budgetary integrity and program momentum.
A nuanced understanding of segment-level drivers is essential to tailor modernization strategies that reflect organizational priorities and technical realities. Based on Organization Size, the market is studied across Large Enterprises and Small And Medium Enterprises, and this distinction matters because large enterprises typically emphasize chronological continuity, integrated governance, and conservative migration phasing, while small and medium enterprises often prioritize cost predictability, managed services, and rapid time-to-value. Based on Deployment Model, the market is studied across Cloud, Hybrid, and On Premises; the Cloud is further studied across Private Cloud and Public Cloud, which creates differentiated requirements for security posture, compliance mapping, and operational support.
Based on Migration Type, the market is studied across Lift And Shift, Rearchitecting, Refactoring, and Replatforming, and the chosen approach directly influences project duration, risk profile, and skillset requirements. Based on Service Type, the market is studied across Assessment And Planning, Managed Services, Migration And Porting, and Refactoring And Optimization, highlighting that demand spans advisory work through to long-term operational stewardship. Finally, based on Industry Vertical, the market is studied across Bfsi, Government And Defense, Healthcare, It And Telecom, Manufacturing, and Retail And Consumer Goods; the Bfsi is further studied across Banking, Capital Markets, and Insurance, and the Government And Defense is further studied across Federal and State And Local, and the Healthcare is further studied across Hospitals And Clinics and Pharmaceuticals, and the It And Telecom is further studied across It Services and Telecom, and the Manufacturing is further studied across Discrete and Process, and the Retail And Consumer Goods is further studied across Brick And Mortar and E Commerce. Collectively, these segmentation lenses enable tailored modernization roadmaps that align technical investment with regulatory constraints, operational cadence, and value creation opportunities.
Regional dynamics materially influence modernization choices, vendor ecosystems, and the availability of skilled resources. In the Americas, enterprise programs are often characterized by a strong emphasis on cloud adoption, commercial contracting flexibility, and a mature managed services market; consequently, many organizations pursue hybrid models that balance legacy reliability with cloud agility. In Europe, Middle East & Africa, regulatory regimes and data residency constraints shape architectures, while regional variation in vendor ecosystems drives a more heterogeneous set of deployment patterns and localized partnerships. In Asia-Pacific, rapid digitalization, diverse maturity levels across markets, and a focus on cost-efficient scaling encourage a mix of public cloud adoption and on-premises modernization where latency or sovereignty concerns prevail.
Understanding these geographic contours allows leaders to anticipate differences in vendor engagement models, compliance obligations, and talent access, and to structure modernization programs that respect local constraints while leveraging global best practices. Moreover, regional considerations inform decisions around centers of excellence, nearshoring strategies for migration execution, and selection of partners with proven multi-region delivery capabilities.
Key companies operating in the ecosystem bring complementary strengths across advisory, tooling, migration execution, and long-term managed operations. Some providers emphasize deep mainframe transformation tooling and automated code conversion capabilities that accelerate replatforming and refactoring efforts, while others differentiate through outcome-oriented managed services that absorb operational risk and provide predictable run costs. There is a clear segmentation between firms that focus on lift-and-shift capabilities for rapid workload migration and those that deliver comprehensive rearchitecting services targeting cloud-native transformation.
Beyond technical prowess, successful vendors demonstrate mature governance frameworks, robust security practices, and the ability to integrate with enterprise CI/CD pipelines and observability platforms. Strategic alliances and ecosystem partnerships also play a decisive role: vendors that can orchestrate multi-vendor stacks and provide end-to-end accountability shorten procurement cycles and reduce coordination overhead. For buyers, vendor evaluation should therefore emphasize not only technical fit but also execution track record, contractual flexibility, and the capacity to scale delivery teams across geographies as projects expand from pilots to enterprise-wide programs.
Industry leaders should pursue a deliberate, outcome-centric approach that balances incremental progress with strategic ambition. First, establish a modernization playbook that prioritizes critical workloads by business impact and risk, and that identifies short-term wins alongside multi-year replatforming initiatives. Second, favor contractual models that align incentives with measurable outcomes, including service-level commitments for run-state performance and defined acceptance criteria for migration waves. Third, invest in skills transition programs that combine targeted hiring with intensive upskilling, apprenticeship models, and knowledge capture to preserve institutional logic while adopting modern toolchains.
Additionally, leaders should incorporate trade policy scenario planning into procurement strategies to reduce exposure to tariff volatility, and deliberately select partners that offer flexible deployment models across cloud, hybrid, and on-premises environments. Finally, ensure that modernization programs embed robust observability, automated testing, and a phased rollback strategy to protect business continuity; these elements reduce operational risk and increase stakeholder confidence as initiatives scale from pilot stages to enterprise adoption.
The research underpinning this executive summary synthesizes primary and secondary inputs to form a rigorous and reproducible methodology. Primary inputs include structured interviews with enterprise technology leaders, program managers, and vendor executives, as well as qualitative case analyses of modernization engagements across diverse industries. These interviews were designed to uncover execution challenges, governance practices, and decision criteria that influence migration type selection and service provider engagement.
Secondary inputs comprise a comprehensive review of public policy announcements, tariff schedules affecting hardware and related infrastructure, vendor product documentation, and academic and industry literature on legacy modernization techniques. Analytical methods include cross-segmentation comparative analysis, scenario mapping for trade policy impacts, and vendor capability benchmarking focused on execution readiness, tooling maturity, and service portfolio breadth. Throughout, efforts were made to triangulate findings across multiple data sources to ensure robustness and to highlight areas where further, bespoke advisory engagement may be warranted.
In summary, mainframe modernization is a strategic imperative that requires calibrated decisions at the intersection of technology, procurement, and operations. Organizations that succeed do so by adopting modular migration strategies, selecting partners that offer outcome-oriented engagements, and embedding governance and skills transition mechanisms that preserve continuity. Trade policy developments, such as the United States tariffs for 2025, add complexity to procurement planning and highlight the need for scenario-based financial and sourcing strategies.
Looking ahead, modernization will continue to be shaped by the interplay of cloud economics, tooling innovation that automates legacy migration, and regional regulatory considerations. Executives should view modernization as a staged, portfolio-driven program rather than a single project, and should use structured research and targeted advisory support to translate strategic goals into executable roadmaps. With disciplined governance and the right blend of internal and external capabilities, organizations can modernize core systems while safeguarding operational resilience and unlocking new avenues for innovation.