汽车产业的未来：涵盖OEM格局、联网汽车、自动驾驶技术、电动车、电池技术创新、动力传动系统和共享出行－预测2030年

汽车产业（包括PV、LCV和MHCV）的市场规模预计将从2024年的8,800万辆增加到2030年的1.04亿辆，复合年增长率为2.4%。

由于多种因素，汽车市场预计将成长。汽车产业目前面临持续的压力，需要适应技术进步和最终用户偏好驱动的新变化。电动车的采用是见证汽车产业快速变化的关键因素。在电动车领域，开发和製造远距电池以及为客户安装快速和超快速充电点是OEM和电动车解决方案提供商的首要任务。

此外，具有增强安全功能和先进自动化的自动驾驶汽车的推出正在改变汽车市场的动态。此外，OEM正致力于透过使用千兆广播技术和智慧製造来降低汽车生产成本，智慧製造在设计和製造零件时采用自动化和机器人技术。

5G联网汽车迅速普及，可改善驾驶体验、车队管理、智慧城市和云端运算。据估计，到 2024年终，大约五分之一的联网汽车将整合 5G 连线。该技术预计将快速发展，并在 2030 年实现较高的市场渗透率。

共享出行包括由多个用户使用而不是个人拥有的各种交通服务和资源。这个概念包括汽车共享、自行车共享、叫车和大众交通工具。透过促进共享使用而不是个人所有权，共享出行旨在降低交通成本，最大限度地减少对环境的影响，并改善城市流动性和可及性。透过优化车辆和基础设施的使用，我们为都市化带来的交通拥堵和污染等挑战提供永续的解决方案。最终，共享出行旨在为世界各地的城市创建更有效率、公平和环保的交通系统。

本报告审视了全球汽车产业的未来，总结了汽车製造商的产业格局、联网汽车趋势、自动驾驶技术、电动车、电池创新、动力传动系统和共享出行。

目录

• 研究目的和调查方法
• 调查范围
• 汽车产业的未来：整体趋势
• 世界汽车销售（PV+LCV+MHCV）及GDP成长率：1980-2030
• 持有汽车数量和车龄的增加
• 不断增长的中产阶级和 Z 世代人口将推动未来的销售
• 连网型、自主、共享、电气化（案例）：扩大采用
• 婴儿潮经济：新兴国家超越已开发国家
• 汽车销售：新兴市场的下一波成长
• 汽车OEM集团20强
• 汽车平台的变化
• 摘要
• 电动车：BEV轻型车销售转折点
• 逐步淘汰内燃机汽车
• 电气化将改变汽车製造商和价值链
• 电气化改变製造工艺
• 「平台」的变化正在推动电动车製造的变革
• 电池容量分析
• 充电性能
• 电池技术：电池技术成熟度曲线与时间表
• 电池技术：电池温度控管技术和SSB
• 电池技术：电动车电池封装解决方案
• 电池技术：电动车电池价格
• 电力电子：产业正向SIC+GAN迈进，但专注于应用需求
• 电动马达
• 电动车电池4R生态系统
• 摘要
• 数位连网生活的未来
• 基于汽车的连网生活生态系统
• 数位连网生活服务：行动产业的 TAM
• 未来汽车的连网型功能
• 车载和客製化数位体验
• 软体定义框架
• OEM数位驾驶座专案概述
• 支援 SDV 的硬体/EE架构的演变
• 软体定义车辆 (SDV)
• 资料收益手段
• 5G 在汽车产业：使用案例
• 生成式人工智慧将对汽车产业产生多方面的影响
• 摘要
• 自动驾驶
• 自动驾驶水平
• 感测器焦点
• 乘用车技术堆迭
• OEM自动驾驶服务（按地区）
• 专注OEM
• 自动驾驶：功能映射
• L4概述
• 自动驾驶市场预测
• 自动驾驶：重点
• 摘要
• 未来的动力传动系统组合
• 永续移动蓝图- 基于用例和应用程式的解决方案组合
• 电动动力传动系统发展蓝图－加速引入轻资产模式
• 未来的动力传动系统平台 - OEM的效率改进方案
• OEM 2030动力传动系统策略
• 摘要
• 多模态与 15 分钟城市
• 除了货运车辆外，专用的数量也在增加。
• 数位化预购体验与汽车销售亚马逊化

The automotive industry, encompassing PV, LCV, and MHCV, size is projected to grow from 88 million units in 2024 and is projected to hit 104 million units by 2030, at a CAGR of 2.4%. The automotive market is expected to experience growth driven by various factors. The automotive industry is currently under constant pressure to adapt to new changes due to technological advancements and end-user preferences. Adoption of electric vehicles is the key factor that has witnessed a rapid change in the automotive industry. In line with the EV sector, development and manufacturing of long-range batteries along with installation of fast and ultra-fast charging points for customers is the foremost agenda of the OEMs and EV solution providing companies.

Further, the introduction of autonomous cars with enhanced safety features and higher level of automation is shifting the trends in the automotive market. Moreover, OEMs are focused on reducing the production cost of the vehicle by using gigacasting technology and smart manufacturing by adopting automation and robotics while designing and manufacturing the components.

Furthermore, 5G connected cars to enhance driving experience, manage cars fleet, smart cities and cloud computing is catching on rapidly. It is estimated that around one-fifth of the connected cars will be integrated with 5G connectivity by the end of 2024. This technology is expected to develop quickly can penetrate the market at a high rate by 2030.

Shared mobility encompasses a range of transportation services and resources that are utilized by multiple users, rather than owned individually. This concept includes car-sharing, bike-sharing, ride-hailing, and public transit. By promoting shared access over individual ownership, shared mobility seeks to reduce transportation costs, minimize environmental impact, and enhance urban mobility and accessibility. It offers a sustainable solution to the growing challenges of urbanization, such as traffic congestion and pollution, by optimizing the use of vehicles and infrastructure. Ultimately, shared mobility aims to create more efficient, equitable, and environmentally friendly transportation systems in cities worldwide.

"Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to witness significant growth."

Autonomous vehicles are projected to grow significantly by 2030 due to the rising demand for safety, comfort, and driving convenience features. The launch of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles is another factor contributing to the market's expansion. Numerous OEMs are introducing Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous vehicles, including Nissan, Honda, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. For Instance, in July 2023, BMW announced to launch a 7 Series, Level 3 autonomous driving car by early 2024. Similarly, in February 2022, Benteler EV Systems, Beep and Mobileye announced a collaboration to develop a fully electric and autonomous (SAE Level 4) vehicle that can be used for commuters on public and private roads by early 2024.

"Asia Pacific holds the largest market share in the forecast period"

Asia Pacific has emerged as a promising market for the global automobile industry. The principal driver of this trend is the Chinese market, which has grown to become the world's largest producer and buyer of automobiles. India, Japan, and South Korea are also important country-level markets in the region. While India is gradually becoming a major contributor in the automotive sector, Japan and South Korea are already well-established. According to OICA, China and India produce over 30 million vehicles each year. Despite the worldwide market slowdown, the Asia region has seen growth in automobile production in 2022 and 2023. Continuing this trend, the Asia region will dominate the market in the forecast period.

Further, China is the most dominant nation in automotive industry with respect to supplying raw materials, manufacturing as well as its sales. China has the most powerful supply chain of EV batteries. Over 50% of the EV batteries are manufactured in China. Moreover, around 75% of the components of EV batteries are manufactured in China. These Chinese manufacturers are looking to expand their services and acquire additional market share around the world. For instance, in September 2023, a leading Chinese EV battery manufacturer, Gotion, has announced to invest $2 billion to setup EV lithium battery plant in Illinois, US. In addition, western automakers are adopting strategies in collaboration with Chinese players to manufacture batteries. For instance, in May 2023, Ford announced a collaboration with CATL to set up a EV battery plant in Michigan, US by investing $3.5 billion, which will be operational by 2026.

Furthermore, the market growth in Asia Pacific can be attributed to the high vehicle production and increased use of advanced electronics in Japan, South Korea, and China. The governments of these countries have recognized the growth potential of the automotive sector and have consequently undertaken various initiatives to encourage major OEMs to enter their domestic markets. Several global automobile manufacturers, such as Volkswagen (Germany), Mercedes Benz (Germany), and General Motors (US), have shifted their production plants to emerging economies in the region.

Research Coverage:

The market analysis encompasses the Future of Automotive Industry, focusing on the sales volume of both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. Additionally, it examines the developments that occurred in the automotive industry till 2030. The report delves into the trends propelling the automotive sector, analyzing factors that influence the industry till 2030. The study encompasses a broad range, including Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and Electric Vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles, 5G connectivity in cars, smart manufacturing, shared mobility, online sales of vehicles, powertrains, manufacturing platforms and others automotive related future technologies. Geographically, the report covers North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World.

Report Scope

The report will help the market leaders/new entrants in this market with information on the technologies that are predected to drive the automotive industry in future. This report will help stakeholders understand the competitive landscape and gain more insights to position their businesses better and to plan suitable go-to-market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the market and provides them with information on key market drivers, restraints, challenges, and opportunities.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

• Analysis of key Trends in 2023 till 2030 (Electrification, Rise of 5G, Connected Cars, Smart Manufacturing etc).
• Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming technologies, research & development activities, and new product & service launches in the automotive market
• Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets - the report analyses the automotive market across varied regions
• Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about diversification of supply chains, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments in the automotive market
• Competitive Assessment: Assessment of market shares, growth strategies and service offerings of leading players like across passenger and commercial vehicle segments which are then dirther divided into ICE and electric among others in the automotive market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the autonomous vehicle market and provides them information on key market drivers, challenges, and opportunities.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY

• 2.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY
• 2.2 STUDY SCOPE

3. OVERARCHING TRENDS

• 3.1 FUTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY: OVERARCHING TRENDS
• 3.2 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SALES (PV + LCV + MHCV) AND GDP GROWTH: 1980 TO 2030
• 3.3 AUTOMOTIVE VEHICLE PARC AND GROWTH IN AVERAGE AGE OF VEHICLES
• 3.4 GROWING MIDDLE CLASS AND GEN Z POPULATION TO DRIVE FUTURE SALES
• 3.5 CONNECTED, AUTONOMOUS, SHARED AND ELECTRIC (CASE): GROWTH IN PENETRATION
• 3.6 BABY BUST ECONOMIES: EMERGING ECONOMIES TAKING OVER ADVANCED ECONOMIES
• 3.7 AUTOMOTIVE SALES: NEXT WAVE OF GROWTH FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES
• 3.8 TOP 20 AUTOMOTIVE OEM GROUPS
• 3.9 CHANGES IN AUTOMOTIVE PLATFORMS

4. FUTURE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND BATTERY TECHNOLOGY

• 4.1 SUMMARY
• 4.2 ELECTRIC VEHICLES: BEV LIGHT VEHICLE SALES TIPPING POINT
• 4.3 PHASING OUT OF ICE VEHICLES
• 4.4 ELECTRIFICATION WILL CHANGE AUTOMAKERS AND THE VALUE CHAIN
• 4.5 ELECTRIFICATION TO CHANGE THE MANUFACTURING PROCESSES
• 4.6 SHIFT IN 'PLATFORM' DRIVING EV MANUFACTURING SHIFTS
• 4.7 BATTERY CAPACITY ANALYSIS
• 4.8 CHARGING PERFORMANCE
• 4.9 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: BATTERY TECHNOLOGY MATURITY CURVE AND TIMELINES
• 4.10 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: BATTERY THERMAL MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES AND SSB
• 4.11 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: EV BATTERY PACKAGING SOLUTIONS
• 4.12 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY: ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY PRICES
• 4.13 POWER ELECTRONICS: INDUSTRY SHIFTING TOWARDS SIC + GAN BUT SPECIFIC TO APPLICATION REQUIREMENTS
• 4.14 ELECTRIC MOTORS
• 4.15 EV BATTERY 4R ECOSYSTEM

5. FUTURE OF CONNECTED VEHICLES

• 5.1 SUMMARY
• 5.2 FUTURE OF DIGITAL CONNECTED LIVING
• 5.3 CONNECTED LIVING ECOSYSTEM IN CONTEXT OF A CAR
• 5.4 DIGITAL CONNECTED LIVING SERVICES: TAM FOR MOBILITY INDUSTRY
• 5.5 CONNECTED FEATURES IN FUTURE CARS
• 5.1 IN-VEHICLE EXPERIENCE AND TAILOR-MADE DIGITAL EXPERIENCE
• 5.6 SOFTWARE-DEFINED FRAMEWORK
• 5.7 OEM DIGITAL COCKPIT PROGRAM OVERVIEW
• 5.8 HARDWARE/EE ARCHITECTURE EVOLUTION TO SUPPORT SDV
• 5.9 SOFTWARE DEFINED VEHICLES (SDV)
• 5.10 DATA MONETIZATION AVENUES
• 5.11 5G IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY: USE CASES
• 5.12 GENERATIVE AI TO HAVE MULTIFACETED IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

6. FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

• 6.1 SUMMARY
• 6.2 AUTONOMOUS WORLD
• 6.3 AUTOMATED DRIVING LEVELS
• 6.4 SENSOR FOCUS
• 6.5 TECHNOLOGY STACK FOR PASSENGER CARS
• 6.6 OEM AUTOMATED DRIVING OFFERING BY REGION
• 6.7 OEM FOCUS
• 6.8 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: FEATURES MAPPING
• 6.9 L4 OVERVIEW
• 6.10 AUTOMATED DRIVING MARKET FORECASTS
• 6.11 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: KEY TAKEAWAYS

7. FUTURE OF POWERTRAIN

• 7.1 SUMMARY
• 7.2 FUTURE POWERTRAIN MIX
• 7.3 SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY ROADMAP - PORTFOLIO OF SOLUTIONS BASED ON USE CASES AND APPLICATIONS
• 7.4 E-MOBILITY POWERTRAIN DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP - ACCELERATED ADOPTION OF ASSET-LIGHT MODELS
• 7.5 POWERTRAIN PLATFORM OF THE FUTURE - EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS FOR OEMS
• 7.6 OEM 2030 POWERTRAIN STRATEGIES

8. FUTURE OF SHARED MOBILITY AND AUTOMOTIVE CHANNELS

• 8.1 SUMMARY
• 8.2 MULTI-MODAL MOBILITY AND 15-MINUTE CITIES
• 8.3 RISE IN PURPOSE-BUILT VEHICLES AS WELL AS CARGO VEHICLES
• 8.4 DIGITAL PRE-BUYING EXPERIENCE AND AMAZONIFICATION OF CAR SALES

9. ABOUT MARKETSANDMARKETS

10. LEGAL DISCLAIMER