甲醇市场 - 增长、趋势、COVID-19 影响和预测 (2023-2028)

到今年年底，甲醇市场估计将超过 92,700 千吨。

预计在预测期内復合年增长率将保持在 3.5% 以上。

由于政府在 2020 年和 2021 年上半年实施禁令和限制，COVID-19 大流行严重限制了工业活动，限制了甲醇市场的增长。 化学工业因原材料供应短缺、工作时间/财务限制、需求下降和财务限製而陷入瘫痪。 不过，自2021年年中疫情消退后，化工石化行业步入復苏轨道。 终端用户部门对化学品需求的快速增长继续施加压力，预计将促进甲醇市场的增长。

主要亮点

• 从中期来看，中国、美国和其他亚太国家/地区石化行业的扩张以及对甲醇燃料的需求增加是该市场增长的主要驱动力。 此外，在使用 MTO 的烯烃生产中越来越多地使用甲醇正在推动化学工业的增长。
• 另一方面，相对于甲醇，乙醇燃料和生物乙醇的偏好以及相关的健康危害预计将在预测期内限制目标行业的增长。
• 但是，甲醇在新的和扩展的燃料应用中的使用以及该行业对可再生甲醇的日益倾向可能会在不久的将来为市场带来有利可图的增长机会。
• 亚太地区已成为最大的甲醇市场。 预计在预测期内将保持最高复合年增长率。 亚太地区的主导地位是由于中国、日本和其他东南亚国家对甲醇的高需求，以及化工和其他应用领域的扩大。

甲醇市场趋势

能源相关应用主导市场

• 在过去几年中，能源相关应用中甲醇的使用量显着增加。 甲醇广泛用于甲醇制烯烃（MTO）转化反应，为从煤和天然气等非石油资源中生产基础石化产品（乙烯、丙烯、丁烯、丁二烯等）提供了机会。。
• 甲醇是甲基叔丁基醚 (MTBE) 的前体，添加到汽油中可增加氧气浓度并提高辛烷值。 由于MTBE完全燃烧汽油，因此减少了汽车排放的一氧化碳和尾气等有害气体，从而抑制了空气污染。
• 甲醇已成功用于增加全球许多汽油市场的汽油供应。 在汽油供应中添加甲醇可以提供非石油替代品和清洁、高度可燃的高辛烷值燃料。 根据甲醇研究所的说法，与其他酒精不同，将甲醇混合到汽油中是经济的，没有政府补贴或燃料混合要求。
• 甲醇还用于生产二甲醚，由于其高可燃性和高十六烷值，甲醇作为替代燃料发挥着重要作用。 二甲醚在柴油发动机中的燃烧非常干净，无烟灰。 DME 可用于柴油发动机，作为传统柴油燃料的替代品。
• 甲醇是生产生物柴油的重要起始原料，作为一种可替代原油衍生柴油的可再生燃料而备受关注。 甲醇比乙醇更适合用于酯交换反应，因为它与甘油三酯的反应性很强，并且易溶于碱。
• 生物柴油是一种清洁燃烧的燃料，可以提高能源安全并减少碳排放。 此外，它的闪点高（至少100°C），可与轻油以任意比例混合，为汽车供油时可将两种燃料混合使用。 多年来，除了 2020 年大流行期间外，生物柴油的环保性能刺激了生物柴油产量的上升趋势。 根据 BP 世界能源统计评论，2022 年，生物柴油产量在 2020 年略有下降后将在 2021 年反弹，达到每天 734,000 桶（高于大流行前水平）。 在预测期内，产量的增加趋势预计将增加甲醇消费在生物柴油生产中的份额。
• 鑑于上述因素，预计在预测期内，能源相关应用中对甲醇的使用和需求将会扩大。

亚太地区主导市场

• 亚太地区以巨大的市场份额主导着全球市场。 预计它将在预测期内保持其主导地位。 仅中国就生产和消费了全球60%以上的甲醇，居世界首位。 在中国河南省安阳市，一座“最先进”的二氧化碳甲醇化工厂已开始生产，这将是世界上第一个商业规模的从捕获的二氧化碳和氢气中生产甲醇的设施。
• 根据甲醇研究所的数据，中国有 700 万辆汽车使用甲醇，占中国燃料总量的 5% 以上。 甲醇排放的二氧化碳比传统汽油车少 26%，即使是采用煤基发电方式也是如此。 中国工信部已公布“扩大甲醇汽车推广”计划，正在研究“绿色甲醇+甲醇汽车”的概念。
• 在印度，NITI Aaayog 制定了一项战略，到 2030 年仅用甲醇替代 10% 的原油进口。 这需要大约 30MT 的甲醇。 甲醇和二甲醚比汽油和柴油便宜得多，印度预计到 2030 年将燃料成本降低 30%。
• 日本有川崎重工、雅马哈、丰田、本田、日产和铃木等主要汽车製造商，它们都计划开发甲醇燃料汽车。 日本国家能源战略旨在到 2030 年将汽油依赖性从 50% 降低到 40%，将能源效率提高 30%，并用甲醇等替代燃料替代 20% 的运输燃料，市场研究的需求正在增加。
• 新加坡是最新加入建立全球基础设施以生产和分销作为船用燃料的甲醇的国家/地区。 新加坡已被公认为世界上最大的航运加油中心，得益于航运和燃料行业之间的合作，新加坡将成为东南亚首个绿色电子甲醇设施。
• 上述所有因素预计将在预测期内推动亚太地区甲醇市场的增长。

甲醇市场竞争对手分析

甲醇市场是分散的，顶级公司没有单独拥有足够的市场份额来影响市场需求。 市场上的主要参与者（排名不分先后）包括 SABIC、Proman、宁夏宝丰能源集团、Methanex Corporation 和 ZPCIR。

其他好处

• Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
• 三个月的分析师支持

内容

第1章介绍

• 调查先决条件
• 调查范围

第2章研究方法论

第 3 章执行摘要

第4章市场动态

• 司机
  • 在中国、美国和其他亚太国家/地区扩大石化行业
  • 对甲醇燃料的需求增加
  • 在使用 MTO 的烯烃生产中增加甲醇的使用
• 约束因素
  • 使用比甲醇更多的乙醇燃料和生物乙醇
  • 对健康的有害影响
• 工业价值链分析
• 波特的五力分析
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • 买家的议价能力
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • 替代品的威胁
  • 竞争程度
• 世界主要原料甲醇产能
• 技术快照
• 贸易分析
• 价格趋势

第 5 章市场细分（市场规模：基于数量）

• 通过使用
  • 常规化学品
    • 甲醛
    • 醋酸
    • 溶剂
    • 甲胺
    • 其他传统化学品
  • 能源相关
    • 甲醇-烯烃 (MTO)
    • 甲基叔丁基醚 (MTBE)
    • 混合汽油
    • 二甲醚 (DME)
    • 生物柴油
• 区域信息
  • 亚太地区
    • 中国
    • 印度
    • 日本
    • 韩国
    • 其他亚太地区
  • 北美
    • 美国
    • 加拿大
    • 墨西哥
  • 欧洲
    • 德国
    • 英国
    • 意大利
    • 法国
    • 其他欧洲
  • 南美洲
    • 巴西
    • 阿根廷
    • 其他南美洲
  • 中东
    • 沙特阿拉伯
    • 南非
    • 其他中东地区

第6章竞争格局

• 併购、合资企业、联盟、合同
• 市场份额 (%) 分析
• 主要参与者采用的策略
• 公司简介
  • Atlantic Methanol
  • BASF SE
  • Celanese Corporation
  • Coogee
  • Enerkem
  • Eni SPA
  • Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited（GSFC）
  • Ineos
  • Kingboard Holdings Limited
  • Lyondellbasell Industries Holdings BV
  • Methanex Corporation
  • Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc.
  • Mitsui & Co. Ltd
  • Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co. Ltd
  • OCI NV
  • Petroliam Nasional Berhad
  • Proman
  • Sabic
  • ZPCIR

第7章市场机会与未来趋势

• 在新的和扩展的燃料应用中使用甲醇
• 可再生甲醇的增长趋势

The methanol market is estimated to reach over 92,700 kilo tons by the end of the current year. It is projected to register a CAGR of over 3.5% during the forecast period.

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically curtailed industrial activities due to imposed government bans and restrictions in 2020 and the first half of 2021, limiting the growth of the methanol market. The chemical industry was paralyzed due to scarce raw material supply, limited working hours/labor strength, reduced demand, and constrained financials. However, the chemical and petrochemical industries have been on track for recovery since the retraction of the pandemic in mid-2021. The exponential rise in demand for chemicals in end-user sectors continues to exert pressure, which is expected to contribute to the growth of the methanol market.

Key Highlights

• Over the medium term, the expanding petrochemical sector in China, the United States, and other Asia-Pacific countries and the rising demand for methanol-based fuels are the major driving factors augmenting the growth of the market studied. Furthermore, the growing utilization of methanol in producing olefins using MTO propels increased offtakes in the chemical industries.
• On the other side, the higher preference for ethanol fuel or bioethanol over methanol and the health hazardous impacts associated with it are anticipated to restrain the growth of the target industry over the forecast period.
• Nevertheless, the use of methanol in new and expanding fuel applications and the growing industrial inclination toward renewable methanol are likely to create lucrative growth opportunities for the market soon.
• The Asia-Pacific emerged as the largest market for methanol. It is expected to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The dominance of the Asia-Pacific is attributed to the high demand for methanol in China, Japan, and other Southeast Asian countries, expanding chemical and other application sectors.

Methanol Market Trends

Energy-related Applications to Dominate the Market

• The use of methanol in energy-related applications increased significantly in the past few years. Methanol is widely used in methanol-to-olefins (MTO) transformation reactions, which provides a chance to produce basic petrochemicals (such as ethene, propene, butene, and butadiene) from non-oil resources like coal and natural gas.
• Methanol is a precursor for producing methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), which is added to gasoline to enhance the octane number by increasing the oxygen content. MTBE leads to the complete combustion of gasoline and, thus, lowers the exhaust of harmful gases, like carbon monoxide, and other emissions from vehicles, reducing air pollution.
• Methanol has been successfully used to extend gasoline supplies in many gasoline markets worldwide. Adding methanol to the gasoline supply provides non-petroleum alternative energy and a clean-burning, high-octane fuel. According to the Methanol Institute, unlike other alcohols, methanol blending in gasoline has been economical without government subsidies or fuel-blending mandates.
• Methanol is also used to produce dimethyl ether, which registers significant usage as a fuel substitute, due to its good ignition quality and high cetane number. DME in diesel engines burns very cleanly with no soot. It can be used in diesel engines as a substitute for conventional diesel fuel.
• Methanol is a crucial starting material for the production of biodiesel, which is viewed as an alternative renewable fuel for crude oil-derived diesel. Methanol is preferred over ethanol for the transesterification reaction due to its superior reactivity with triglycerides and high alkaline dissolution properties.
• Biodiesel is a clean burning fuel that increases energy security and leads to a lower carbon footprint. It exhibits a higher flash point (100°C minimum) and can be blended with diesel fuel at any proportion; both fuels can be mixed during the fuel supply to vehicles. The environmental benefits of biodiesel had spurred the continued increase in biodiesel production in the historical years, except for 2020, when the pandemic was at large. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2022, the production of biodiesel in 2021 recovered, reaching 734 thousand barrels per day (higher than pre-pandemic levels) after showing a slight decrement in 2020. The increasing production trend is likely to increase the share of methanol consumption in biodiesel production during the forecast period.
• Considering all the abovementioned factors, the use and demand of methanol for energy-related applications are expected to grow in the forecast period.

Asia-Pacific Region to Dominate the Market

• The Asia-Pacific dominated the worldwide market with a significant market share. It is projected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. China alone is the largest producer and consumer of over 60% of the world's methanol, making the country the worldwide leader. In Anyang, Henan Province, China, a 'cutting-edge' carbon dioxide-to-methanol plant has begun production, becoming the world's first commercial-scale facility to manufacture methanol from captured waste carbon dioxide and hydrogen gases.
• According to the Methanol Institute, methanol powers up to 7 million automobiles in China, contributing to more than 5% of the country's fuel pool. Methanol emits 26% less carbon dioxide than conventional gasoline-powered automobiles, even when generated primarily using coal-based techniques. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to "increase the popularity of methanol automobiles" and study the 'green methanol + methanol cars' concept.
• In India, NITI Aaayog has designed a strategy to replace 10% of crude imports with methanol alone by 2030. This takes about 30 MT of methanol. Methanol and DME are significantly less expensive than petrol and diesel; India expects to lower its fuel expense by 30% by 2030.
• Japan is home to some major automotive producers, including Kawasaki, Yamaha, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Suzuki, who are planning to develop vehicles that use methanol as fuel. The National Energy Strategy of Japan focuses on reducing petrol dependency from 50% to 40% by 2030, improving energy efficiency by 30%, and replacing 20% of transport fuel with an alternative fuel, such as methanol, enhancing the demand for the market studied.
• Singapore is the most recent country to join the ongoing efforts to establish a worldwide infrastructure for producing and distributing methanol as a marine fuel. Singapore, which is already recognized as the world's largest bunkering center for the shipping sector, is set to become the first green e-methanol facility in Southeast Asia, a collaboration between the shipping and fuel industries.
• All abovementioned factors are likely to fuel the growth of the methanol market in the Asia-Pacific over the forecast period.

Methanol Market Competitor Analysis

The methanol market is fragmented, with top players holding insignificant shares to affect market demand individually. Some major players in the market (in no particular order) include SABIC, Proman, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co. Ltd, Methanex Corporation, and ZPCIR.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

• 4.1 Drivers
  • 4.1.1 Expanding Petrochemical Sector in China, the United States, and Other Asia-Pacific Countries
  • 4.1.2 Rising Demand for Methanol-based Fuel
  • 4.1.3 Increasing Utilization of Methanol in the Production of Olefins Using MTO
• 4.2 Restraints
  • 4.2.1 Usage of Ethanol Fuel or Bioethanol in Comparison to Methanol
  • 4.2.2 Hazardous Impacts on Health
• 4.3 Industry Value Chain Analysis
• 4.4 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.4.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.4.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.4.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.4.4 Threat of Substitute Products and Services
  • 4.4.5 Degree of Competition
• 4.5 Global Methanol Production Capacity by Key Feedstock
• 4.6 Technological Snapshot
• 4.7 Trade Analysis
• 4.8 Price Trends

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION (Market Size in Volume)

• 5.1 By Application
  • 5.1.1 Traditional Chemical
    • 5.1.1.1 Formaldehyde
    • 5.1.1.2 Acetic Acid
    • 5.1.1.3 Solvent
    • 5.1.1.4 Methylamine
    • 5.1.1.5 Other Traditional Chemicals
  • 5.1.2 Energy Related
    • 5.1.2.1 Methanol-to-olefin (MTO)
    • 5.1.2.2 Methyl Tert-butyl Ether (MTBE)
    • 5.1.2.3 Gasoline Blending
    • 5.1.2.4 Dimethyl Ether (DME)
    • 5.1.2.5 Biodiesel
• 5.2 By Geography
  • 5.2.1 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.2.1.1 China
    • 5.2.1.2 India
    • 5.2.1.3 Japan
    • 5.2.1.4 South Korea
    • 5.2.1.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.2.2 North America
    • 5.2.2.1 United States
    • 5.2.2.2 Canada
    • 5.2.2.3 Mexico
  • 5.2.3 Europe
    • 5.2.3.1 Germany
    • 5.2.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.2.3.3 Italy
    • 5.2.3.4 France
    • 5.2.3.5 Rest of Europe
  • 5.2.4 South America
    • 5.2.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.2.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.2.4.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.2.5 Middle East
    • 5.2.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.2.5.2 South Africa
    • 5.2.5.3 Rest of Middle East

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
• 6.2 Market Share (%) Analysis
• 6.3 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
• 6.4 Company Profiles
  • 6.4.1 Atlantic Methanol
  • 6.4.2 BASF SE
  • 6.4.3 Celanese Corporation
  • 6.4.4 Coogee
  • 6.4.5 Enerkem
  • 6.4.6 Eni SPA
  • 6.4.7 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC)
  • 6.4.8 Ineos
  • 6.4.9 Kingboard Holdings Limited
  • 6.4.10 Lyondellbasell Industries Holdings BV
  • 6.4.11 Methanex Corporation
  • 6.4.12 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc.
  • 6.4.13 Mitsui & Co. Ltd
  • 6.4.14 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co. Ltd
  • 6.4.15 OCI NV
  • 6.4.16 Petroliam Nasional Berhad
  • 6.4.17 Proman
  • 6.4.18 Sabic
  • 6.4.19 ZPCIR

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

• 7.1 Use of Methanol in New and Expanding Fuel Applications
• 7.2 Growing Trends Toward Renewable Methanol