美国热泵：市场占有率分析、产业趋势与成长预测（2025-2030）

美国热泵市场预计在预测期内复合年增长率为 9.4%

主要亮点

• 在美国，新的政府法规预计将提高暖通空调设备的能源效率。从 2023 年开始，在美国销售的所有新住宅中央源热泵系统预计将满足新的最低能源效率法规和标准。这些设备类型的最新能源效率最低标准于 2015 年生效。新法规要求所有空气源热泵提高其加热效率。
• 此外，美国环保署 (EPA) 报告称，透过利用地热能，住宅可节省高达 70% 的供暖成本和高达 50% 的製冷成本。此类案例预计将支持市场成长。
• 根据国际能源总署（IEA）统计，地源热泵的年销量约为40万台，虽然全球广泛使用的地源热泵数量较少，但其中一半以上安装在美国。量和安装量增加了一倍多，部分归功于2018 年至2021 年30% 的联邦税额扣抵。
• 此外，热泵由于其能源效率而受到该地区政府的监管。例如，能源部 (DOE) 发布了风扇能源评级 (FER)，为住宅炉风扇设定了最低气流效率标准。
• 结合FER的新标准，美国能源部表示，到2030年，核心风机新标准将节省约3.99quad的能源，减少碳污染3400万吨，并美国公民节省超过90亿美元的电费。是可能的。根据一项新的州法律，缅因市正在招募安装人员，以实现未来五年安装 10 万台热泵的目标。

美国热泵市场趋势

空气源热泵预计将占据较大市场占有率

• 空气源热泵（ASHP）输入电力，从周围空气中提取热量，并提供高达 90 摄氏度的热水。它从周围空气中吸收热量，使周围区域变得凉爽。因此，对热水和冷空气的需求正在推动空气源热泵的成长。
• ASHP 有两种主要类型：空对水和空对空。空气-水热泵透过吸收外部空气的热量并将其透过风扇系统直接泵入您的家中来加热房间。同时，空气源热泵从室外空气中吸收热量，并透过中央暖气供应系统向室内空间提供热水加热、散热器和地板（或全部三者）。因此，选择ASHP类型决定了所需的供热系统类型。
• 这些泵浦已在美国几乎每个地区使用多年。直到最近，它们还没有在长期处于零下气温的地区使用。然而，近年来，空气源热泵技术已经发展到现在可以在寒冷地区提供合法的空间加热选择。
• 例如，根据美国能源局和东北部能源效率伙伴关係的数据，如果在东北部和大西洋中部地区更换整个机组，使用空气源热泵与电阻加热器相比，每年可节省结果发现，其能耗约为3,000 千瓦时（或459 美元），而石油系统的能耗为6,200 千瓦时（或948 美元）。如果更换石油（II 仍然存在，但运行频率较低），平均每年节省电量将接近 3,000 千瓦时（约 300 美元）。此类案例预计将进一步促进市场成长。
• 此外，对空调的需求正在下降，为热泵供应商创造了机会。例如，根据空调、暖气与冷气研究所的数据，2022 年 4 月美国空调出货量下降 1.6%，至 592,889 台，低于 2021 年 4 月的 602,723 台。

住宅领域预计将占据很大份额

• 对于没有管道的住宅，还有无管道空气源热泵，称为迷你分离式热泵。此外，一种特殊类型的空气源热泵（称为逆循环冷却器）可用于暖气模式下的辐射地板暖气系统，因为它产生冷热水而不是空气。
• 地源热泵透过在住宅和地面或附近水源之间转移热量来实现更高的效率。儘管地源热泵的安装成本较高，但由于地源热泵利用相对恆定的地面温度和水温，因此营业成本较低。其他好处包括减少 30% 至 60% 的能源消耗、控制湿度、坚固可靠以及与各种住宅相容。
• 此外，新型住宅热泵在国内逐渐流行。这是吸收式热泵，也称为燃气热泵。吸收式热泵利用热作为能源来源，可以由多种热源提供动力。此外，住宅吸收式热泵利用氨水吸收循环提供暖气。
• 此外，美国人口普查局和美国住房与城市发展部联合宣布，住宅建设正在增长。例如，2022年5月竣工的私人住宅单位数量按年计算为1,465,000套，比4月份修订后的预测1,343,000套增加9.1%（增长22.6%）。这为市场上的供应商提供了机会。

美国热泵产业概况

由于 Lennox、大金和开利等主要参与者的存在，热泵市场竞争对手之间的竞争并不激烈。这些公司由于能够不断创新其服务产品而在市场上获得竞争优势。透过研发活动和併购，这些公司正在扩大其市场份额。

• 2021 年 8 月 - Gradient 透过使用气候友善製冷剂（可能使用丙烷 (R290)）提供全年供暖和製冷，与传统系统相比，温室气体排放量排放75%，宣布开发出家用窗式热泵，可减少温室气体排放
• 2021 年 10 月 - 三菱电机特灵 HVAC 美国推出适用于商业和工业应用的 CO2 (R744) 热泵热水器 Heat2O。

其他好处

• Excel 格式的市场预测 (ME) 表
• 3 个月分析师支持

目录

第一章简介

• 研究假设和市场定义
• 调查范围

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章市场洞察

• 市场概况
• 产业吸引力－波特五力分析
  • 供应商的议价能力
  • 消费者议价能力
  • 新进入者的威胁
  • 竞争公司之间的敌对关係
  • 替代品的威胁
• 评估 COVID-19 对产业的影响
• 产业价值链
• 效率技术简介（仅限受联邦标准监管的相关设备）
  • 低（HSPF：8.0-8.99）
  • 高（HSPF：9 或更高）

第五章市场动态

• 市场驱动因素
  • 更换现有设备，提高性能并恢復热泵减税
  • 政府加大力度减少碳排放
• 市场问题
  • 冷媒使用缺乏监管的前景会给行业参与者带来不确定性
  • 热泵安装成本高

第六章 市场细分

• 按类型
  • 空气热源
  • 水热源
  • 地下热源
• 按最终用户
  • 住宅
  • 商业的
  • 工业的

第七章 竞争格局

• 公司简介
  • DAIKIN INDUSTRIES LTD
  • Carrier GLOBAL corporation（UNITED TECHNOLOGIES corporation）
  • RHEEM MANUFACTURING COMPANY
  • Trane technologies plc（ingersol-rand plc）
  • Johnson Controls International plc
  • Nortek AIR MANAGEMENT（Melrose industries plc）
  • LENNOX INTERNATONAL INC.
  • ROBERT BOSCH GMBH
  • EMERSON ELECTRIC CO.
  • GE APPLIANCES
  • STIEBEL ELTRON GmbH & Co. KG（DE）

第八章投资分析

第9章市场的未来

The United States Heat Pump Market is expected to register a CAGR of 9.4% during the forecast period.

Key Highlights

• The introduction of new government regulations, in the United States, is expected to result in increased energy efficiency of HVAC equipment. Starting from 2023, all new residential central air-source heat pump systems sold in the United States are expected to meet new minimum energy efficiency regulations and standards. The latest minimum energy efficiency standards for these equipment types went into effect in 2015. The new regulations require an increase in the heating efficiency of all air-source heat pumps.
• Moreover, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported that homeowners could save up to 70% on heating costs and 50% on cooling costs with geothermal. Such instances are likely to boost the market growth.
• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), these pumps are less common worldwide, as they have an annual sales of around 400,000, in which more than half of the installations are in the United States, where shipments and installations have more than doubled since 2010, partly owing to a 30% federal tax credit available during 2018-21.
• Furthermore, the heat pumps have been regulated by the governments in the region for their energy efficiency. For instance, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced Fan Energy Rating (FER) that sets a minimum airflow efficiency standard for residential furnace fans.
• With the new FER standards, the US DOE predicts that the new standard for furnace fans might save about 3.99 quads of energy, reduce carbon pollution by 34 million metric tons, and save the American citizens more than USD 9 billion electric bills through 2030. According to new state law, the city of Maine seeks installers to help meet the goal of 100,000 heat pumps over the next five years.

US Heat Pump Market Trends

Air Source Heat Pumps are Expected to Hold a Major Market Share

• The air source heat pump (ASHP) takes the electricity input, extracts the heat from ambient air, and gives hot water up to 90 degrees Celsius. Due to the extraction of heat from the ambient air, the ambient gets cooler. Thus, the requirement for both hot water and cold air is driving the growth of air-source heat pumps.
• There are two main types of ASHP, which are air-to-water and air-to-air. An air-to-air heat pump absorbs heat from the outside air and then transfers it directly into houses via a fan system to heat a room. At the same time, air-to-water heat pumps absorb heat from the outside air and then transfer it via the central heating system to provide hot water heating, radiator, or underfloor heating in an indoor space (or all three). Thus, choosing the type of ASHP determines the type of heat distribution system one needs.
• These pumps have been used for many years in nearly all parts of the United States. Until recently, they have not been used in areas that experienced extended periods of subfreezing temperatures. However, in recent years, air-source heat pump technology has advanced to offer a legitimate space heating alternative in colder regions.
• For instance, according to the US Department of Energy, when entire units were replaced in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships found that the annual savings when using an air-source heat pump were around 3,000 kWh (or USD 459) when compared to electric resistance heaters and 6,200 kWh (or USD 948) when compared to oil systems. When displacing oil (i.e., the oil system remains but operates less frequently), the average annual savings are near 3,000 kWh (or about USD 300). Such instances are likely to augment the market growth further.
• Further, the demand for air conditioners are reducing that is increasing opportuinties for the heat pump vendors. for instance according to Air-conditioning,heating and refrigeration institute the US shipments of air conditioners decreased 1.6% in April 2022 and accounted for 592,889 units, down from 602,723 units shipped in April 2021.

Residential sector is expected to have significant share

• For homes without ducts, air-source heat pumps are also available in a ductless version called a mini-split heat pump. Also, a particular type of air-source heat pump called a reverse cycle chiller generates hot and cold water rather than air, allowing it to be used with radiant floor heating systems in heating mode.
• Geothermal heat pumps achieve higher efficiencies by transferring heat between the house and the ground or a nearby water source. The geothermal heat pump cost more to install, but geothermal heat pumps have low operating costs because they take advantage of relatively constant ground or water temperatures. Moreover, it offers benefits such as it can reduce energy use by 30%-60%, control humidity, are sturdy and reliable, and fit in a wide variety of homes.
• Furthermore, a new heat pump for residential systems is witnessing gradual growth in the country, which is an absorption heat pump, also called a gas-fired heat pump. It uses heat as its energy source and can be driven by a large variety of heat sources. In addition, residential absorption heat pumps use an ammonia-water absorption cycle to provide heating.
• Further, The US Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that the residential building construction is increasing, for instance, in May 2022, privatelyowned housing completions were at the annual rate of 1,465,000 which was 9.1 percent (+-22.6 percent) above the revised April estimate of 1,343,000. Thus driving opportunites for the vendors in the market.

US Heat Pump Industry Overview

The competitive rivalry in the heat pump market is moderately high owing to the presence of some major players such as Lennox, Daikin, Carrier amongst others. Their ability to continually innovate their offerings has enabled them to gain a competitive advantage over other players in the market. Through research & development activities, mergers & acquisitions these players have been able to expand their market footprint.

• August 2021 - Gradient announced to devlop home window heat pump that will be designed toprovide heating and coolin throught the year by making use of climate-friendly refrigerant that can possibly propane (R290) and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75% compared to conventional systems.
• October 2021 - Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US launched CO2 (R744) heat pump water heater, the Heat2O, for commercial and industrial applications as emphasis on decarbonization increased in the country and continious efforts to replace fossil fuel heaters prevails in the country.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET INSIGHTS

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.2.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.2.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
  • 4.2.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.2.4 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
  • 4.2.5 Threat of Substitutes
• 4.3 Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Industry
• 4.4 Industry Value Chain
• 4.5 Thecnology Snapshot on Efficiency (only for relevant equipment which are regulated by Federal Standards)
  • 4.5.1 Low (HSPF: 8.0-8.99)
  • 4.5.2 High (HSPF: 9 and Above)

5 MARKET DYNAMICS

• 5.1 Market Drivers
  • 5.1.1 Replacement of Existing Equipment with Better Performing Ones and Reinstating of Tax Credits for Heat Pumps
  • 5.1.2 Increasing Government Initiatives To Curb Carbon Emission
• 5.2 Market Challenges
  • 5.2.1 Lack Of Regulations Related To Refrigerant Usage Is Expected To Create Uncertainties For Industry Participants
  • 5.2.2 High Installation Cost Of Heat Pumps

6 MARKET SEGMENTATION

• 6.1 By Type
  • 6.1.1 Air-source
  • 6.1.2 Water-source
  • 6.1.3 Geothermal (ground) Source
• 6.2 By End User
  • 6.2.1 Residential
  • 6.2.2 Commercial
  • 6.2.3 Industrial

7 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 7.1 Company Profiles
  • 7.1.1 DAIKIN INDUSTRIES LTD
  • 7.1.2 Carrier GLOBAL corporation (UNITED TECHNOLOGIES corporation)
  • 7.1.3 RHEEM MANUFACTURING COMPANY
  • 7.1.4 Trane technologies plc (ingersol-rand plc)
  • 7.1.5 Johnson Controls International plc
  • 7.1.6 Nortek AIR MANAGEMENT (Melrose industries plc) -
  • 7.1.7 LENNOX INTERNATONAL INC.
  • 7.1.8 ROBERT BOSCH GMBH
  • 7.1.9 EMERSON ELECTRIC CO.
  • 7.1.10 GE APPLIANCES
  • 7.1.11 STIEBEL ELTRON GmbH & Co. KG (DE)

8 INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

9 FUTURE OF THE MARKET