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市场调查报告书
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撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场：市场份额分析、行业趋势、统计数据和成长预测（2025-2030 年）

Sub Saharan Africa Automotive - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 120 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3个工作天内

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简介目录

预计到 2025 年，撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场规模将达到 224.5 亿美元，到 2030 年将达到 284.2 亿美元，在预测期内复合年增长率为 4.83%。

撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场-IMG1

儘管货币波动和基础设施持续不足，但加速的都市化、蓬勃发展的叫车车队以及政府对本地组装的奖励，正帮助维持整体发展动能。衣索比亚和南非的电气化倡议显示需求结构正在多元化，但由于成熟的燃料物流和服务网络，柴油平台仍占据主导地位。灰色进口活动继续抑制授权经销商的销售，但结构化的车队融资计画正在支持叫车业者购买新车。在非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）关税减让的支持下，原始设备製造商（OEM）与本地组装建立的策略伙伴关係，加强了区域供应链一体化。

撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场趋势与洞察

中产阶级的壮大与都市化

每年4.1%的城市人口成长率将购买力转移到经销商网路、融资通路和售后服务集中的大都会区。尼日利亚、肯亚和加纳的中等收入家庭倾向于价格分布的车型，加剧了中国和印度汽车製造商之间的竞争。紧凑型SUV和掀背车因其在拥堵道路上的操控性而备受青睐，而郊区消费者则依赖都市区置换车辆增加带来的二手车库存增长。金融机构的分布也受到就业集中的影响，导致人口超过百万的城市提供的汽车金融产品数量是农村地区的五倍。疲软的该地货币降低了进口车的购买力，但采矿业相关的薪资成长在一定程度上抵消了价格压力，并支撑了需求。

叫车平台的激增将加速车辆更新换代。

来自 Move 等供应商提供的结构化车队融资方案，使叫车司机能够绕过传统的信贷障碍，从而提振撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场的多年基准需求。叫车每天运行 8-12 小时，大约是私家车利用率的四倍，因此更换週期缩短至三到四年。这种可预测的周期使汽车製造商能够将库存计划与平台采购计划相匹配，从而在消费者信心疲软时期保护车队。预计到 2025 年，尼日利亚、肯亚和南非的活跃叫车司机总合将超过 45 万，而平台向二线城市的扩张将进一步深化潜在需求。政府机构日益认识到叫车车队是交通运输服务正规化的催化剂，衣索比亚和加纳已为用于叫车的低排放气体车辆提供关税优惠。这促进了车队规模的成长，并降低了许多市场零售融资管道受限的风险。

进口二手车的优势

根据非洲汽车工业协会预测，到2024年，撒哈拉以南非洲地区83%的轻型车辆註册量将为二手。南非税务局的海关数据显示，二手与新车的价格差异可达45%至60%，影响消费者的购买选择。预计到2030年，富裕经济体註销内燃机车辆的计画每年将使该地区的出口潜力增加1500万辆，除非更严格的进口品质标准得到落实，否则这将使该地区的高排放气体车辆保有量持续存在。联合国欧洲经济委员会（UNECE）的合格通讯协定旨在遏制不合格车辆的流入，但跨境执法力度仍不均衡，限制了其有效性。

细分市场分析

到2024年，运动型多用途车（SUV）将占据撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场36.75%的份额，这得益于其适应各种路况的灵活车身高度，预计到2030年，其复合年增长率将达到5.04%。轿车在商用和车队采购中仍然占有一席之地，但随着消费者转向跨界车型，其市场份额持续下滑。比亚迪和奇瑞等中国厂商透过提供本地组装的插电式混合动力SUV，并以低于日本传统车型的价格销售，加剧了市场竞争，从而扩大了其在潜在购车者中的影响力。在肯亚和加纳，由于交通拥堵，小型车更受欢迎，掀背车在入门级市场占据主导地位。在缺乏正规公共交通系统的城郊地区，厢型车填补了商业性出行的空白，进一步丰富了撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场的车型多样性。

除首都城市以外，其他地区的铺装道路密度仍然较低，且洪水频传，因此底盘的坚固性成为购车的关键因素。 SUV还能提供更佳的驾驶视野，降低交通壅塞的风险。预计到2030年，撒哈拉以南非洲SUV衍生的市场规模将有所成长，这主要得益于私人购车和叫车车队的普及。

预计到2024年，乘用车将占撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场销量的74.33%，年复合成长率（CAGR）为5.65%，这与中产阶级的壮大相符。轻型商用车（LCV）受益于电子商务的快速发展，尤其是在奈及利亚和肯亚，当地的末端配送公司正在租赁专为密集都市区路线优化的小型货车。中型和重型卡车是推动整体市场成长的主要动力，这与南非、尚比亚和安哥拉的商品出口週期密切相关。叫车车队透过结构化融资方案降低前期成本，从而消化了轿车和掀背车的库存，支撑了强劲的乘用车需求。

在衣索比亚，政策主导的电气化正在重塑乘用车市场结构，政府规定新註册车辆中60%必须是电动车。相较之下，由于续航里程的限制，商用车电气化较为缓慢，儘管约翰尼斯堡的一个试点计画正在都市区物流循环中测试纯电动货车。乘用车领域的持续发展势头取决于货币稳定以及撒哈拉以南非洲汽车市场信贷准入改革的进展。

其他福利：

  • Excel格式的市场预测（ME）表
  • 3个月的分析师支持

目录

第一章 引言

  • 研究假设和市场定义
  • 调查范围

第二章调查方法

第三章执行摘要

第四章 市场情势

  • 市场概览
  • 市场驱动因素
    • 中产阶级的壮大与都市化
    • 叫车平台的激增将加速车辆更新换代。
    • 政府对CKD/SKD组装的奖励
    • 透过基础设施建设改善道路连通性
    • 非洲大陆自由贸易区关税削减将促进区域内贸易
    • 中国微型电动车进口成长填补了超低价市场空白。
  • 市场限制
    • 进口二手车的优势
    • 消费信贷管道有限且利率高
    • 该地货币波动导致进口成本上升
    • 撒哈拉以南非洲地区碎片化的同化标准
  • 价值/供应链分析
  • 监管环境
  • 技术展望
  • 波特五力模型
    • 新进入者的威胁
    • 买方/消费者的议价能力
    • 供应商的议价能力
    • 替代品的威胁
    • 竞争对手之间的竞争

第五章 市场规模与成长预测

  • 按车身样式
    • 掀背车
    • 轿车
    • 运动型多用途车（SUV）
    • 多用途/小型货车
  • 按车辆类型
    • 搭乘用车
    • 轻型商用车
    • 中型/大型商用车辆
  • 按燃料类型
    • 汽油
    • 柴油引擎
    • 替代燃料（压缩天然气、液化石油气、生质燃料）
  • 透过推进技术
    • 内燃机（ICE）
    • 混合动力电动车（HEV）
    • 电池电动车（BEV）
    • 插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）
  • 按销售管道
    • 授权OEM经销商
    • 灰色进口/平行输入
  • 按国家/地区
    • 南非
    • 奈及利亚
    • 肯亚
    • 衣索比亚
    • 迦纳
    • 坦尚尼亚
    • 安哥拉
    • 尚比亚

第六章 竞争情势

  • 市场集中度
  • 策略趋势
  • 市占率分析
  • 公司简介
    • Toyota Motor Corporation
    • Volkswagen AG
    • Hyundai Motor Company
    • Nissan Motor Corporation
    • Isuzu Motors Ltd.
    • Ford Motor Company
    • Groupe Renault
    • Honda Motor Corporation
    • Suzuki Motor Corporation
    • Subaru Corporation
    • Stellantis NV
    • Daimler AG（Mercedes-Benz）
    • BYD Co.
    • Geely Auto Group
    • Changan Auto
    • JAC Motors
    • BAIC Group
    • Tata Motors
    • Mahindra & Mahindra
    • Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing（Nigeria）

第七章 市场机会与未来展望

简介目录
Product Code: 67718

The Sub Saharan Africa automotive market size stands at USD 22.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.42 billion by 2030, expanding at a 4.83% CAGR during the forecast period.

Sub Saharan Africa Automotive - Market - IMG1

Accelerating urbanization, surging ride-hailing fleets, and government incentives for local assembly collectively sustain momentum despite persistent currency volatility and infrastructure gaps. Electrification initiatives in Ethiopia and South Africa signal a structurally diversifying demand mix, while diesel platforms remain dominant because of established fuel logistics and service networks. Grey-import activity continues to temper authorized-dealer volumes, yet structured fleet financing programs unlock new-vehicle penetration among ride-hailing operators. Strategic OEM partnerships with local assemblers, supported by AfCFTA tariff reductions, reinforce regional supply-chain integration.

Sub Saharan Africa Automotive Market Trends and Insights

Rising Middle-Class Income and Urbanization

An annual 4.1% urban-population uptick shifts purchasing power toward metropolitan nodes where dealer networks, financing options, and aftermarket services coalesce. Middle-income households in Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana gravitate towards affordable models, intensifying competition between Chinese and Indian OEMs. Compact SUVs and hatchbacks hold favor for maneuverability in congested corridors, whereas peri-urban consumers rely on incoming used stock propelled by rising urban trade-in flows. Lenders follow employment clusters, resulting in cities above 1 million inhabitants offering up to five times more car-loan products than rural districts. Although local-currency depreciation erodes import affordability, wage growth linked to extractive sectors partially offsets price pressure, sustaining demand.

Surge of Ride-Hailing Platforms Accelerating Fleet Renewal

Structured fleet-financing programs from providers such as Moove enable ride-hailing drivers to bypass conventional credit hurdles, lifting multi-year baseline demand for the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market. Ride-hailing vehicles operate 8-12 hours daily, roughly quadrupling private-use utilization, which shortens replacement cycles to 3-4 years. This predictable cadence allows OEMs to align inventory planning with platform procurement schedules, protecting volumes when consumer sentiment dips. Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa collectively host over 450,000 active ride-hailing drivers in 2025, and platform expansion into secondary cities deepens addressable demand. Government agencies increasingly recognize such fleets as catalysts for formalizing transport services, offering duty rebates on low-emission vehicles deployed for ride-hailing in Ethiopia and Ghana. Resultant fleet growth moderates the risk of limited retail financing reach in many markets.

Dominance of Used-Car Imports

Used vehicles represented 83% of all light-duty vehicle registrations across Sub Saharan Africa in 2024, according to the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers . South African Revenue Service customs data show That 45-60% price gaps between used and new models tilt buyer preference, a disparity magnified whenever local-currency depreciation inflates showroom tags. Projected deregistrations of ICE cars in wealthier economies could add 15 million exportable units annually by 2030, prolonging the region's high-emission fleet unless stricter import-quality rules take hold. UNECE roadworthiness protocols aim to stem sub-standard flows, but uneven enforcement across border posts still dilutes effectiveness.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Government CKD/SKD Assembly Incentives
  2. Infrastructure Upgrades Improving Road Connectivity
  3. Limited Consumer Credit Access and High Interest Rates

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Sport-Utility Vehicles accounted for 36.75% of the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market in 2024, underpinned by a versatile ride height suited to mixed-quality roads and a 5.04% CAGR outlook through 2030. Sedans maintain relevance in professional and fleet procurement, yet share erosion persists as consumers migrate to crossover silhouettes. Chinese entrants such as BYD and Chery intensify rivalry by launching locally assembled PHEV SUVs at discounts versus Japanese incumbents, widening adoption among aspirational buyers. Hatchbacks dominate entry-level tiers in Kenya and Ghana, where congested grids reward compact footprints. Multi-purpose vans fill commercial people-movement gaps in peri-urban districts absent formal mass-transit systems, reinforcing the body-style mosaic across the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market.

Infrastructure realities sustain the appeal of higher-clearance models: paved-road density outside capitals remains low, and periodic flooding events make underbody robustness a decisive buying filter. Security considerations likewise favor SUV adoption because elevated driver sightlines reduce vulnerability in traffic slowdowns. The Sub Saharan Africa automotive market size for SUV derivatives is projected to grow by 2030, supported by both private ownership and ride-hailing fleet uptake.

Passenger cars preserved a 74.33% share of Sub Saharan Africa automotive market volume in 2024 and are forecast to grow at a 5.65% CAGR as middle-income cohorts expand. Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) benefit from e-commerce acceleration, especially in Nigeria and Kenya, where last-mile delivery providers lease small vans optimized for dense urban routes. Medium and heavy trucks trail overall market growth, tethered to commodity-export cycles in South Africa, Zambia, and Angola. Ride-hailing fleets underpin steady passenger-car demand, absorbing sedan and hatchback stock through structured financing programs that lower upfront cost burdens.

Policy-driven electrification in Ethiopia reshapes the passenger-car mix: 60% of newly registered cars must be EVs, catalyzing dedicated assembly ventures and public-sector procurement. Conversely, commercial-vehicle electrification lags because of payload-range constraints, though pilot programs in Johannesburg test battery-electric vans under urban logistics duty cycles. Sustained momentum within the passenger-car segment remains contingent on currency stability and progressive credit-access reforms across the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market.

The Sub Saharan Africa Automotive Market Report is Segmented by Body Style (Hatchback, Sedan, and More), Vehicle Type (Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles, and More), Fuel Type (Gasoline, Diesel, and More), Propulsion Technology (Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), and More), Sales Channel, and Country. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

  1. Toyota Motor Corporation
  2. Volkswagen AG
  3. Hyundai Motor Company
  4. Nissan Motor Corporation
  5. Isuzu Motors Ltd.
  6. Ford Motor Company
  7. Groupe Renault
  8. Honda Motor Corporation
  9. Suzuki Motor Corporation
  10. Subaru Corporation
  11. Stellantis N.V.
  12. Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz)
  13. BYD Co.
  14. Geely Auto Group
  15. Changan Auto
  16. JAC Motors
  17. BAIC Group
  18. Tata Motors
  19. Mahindra & Mahindra
  20. Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (Nigeria)

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rising Middle-Class Income and Urbanization
    • 4.2.2 Surge of Ride-Hailing Platforms Accelerating Fleet Renewal
    • 4.2.3 Government CKD/SKD Assembly Incentives
    • 4.2.4 Infrastructure Upgrades Improving Road Connectivity
    • 4.2.5 AfCFTA Tariff Reductions Expanding Intra-Regional Trade
    • 4.2.6 Growth of Chinese Micro-EV Imports Filling Ultra-Low-Cost Niche
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Dominance of Used-Car Imports
    • 4.3.2 Limited Consumer Credit Access and High Interest Rates
    • 4.3.3 Local-Currency Volatility Inflating Import Costs
    • 4.3.4 Fragmented Homologation Standards Across SSA
  • 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

  • 5.1 By Body Style
    • 5.1.1 Hatchback
    • 5.1.2 Sedan
    • 5.1.3 Sport-Utility Vehicle (SUV)
    • 5.1.4 Multi-Purpose/Minivan
  • 5.2 By Vehicle Type
    • 5.2.1 Passenger Cars
    • 5.2.2 Light Commercial Vehicles
    • 5.2.3 Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles
  • 5.3 By Fuel Type
    • 5.3.1 Gasoline
    • 5.3.2 Diesel
    • 5.3.3 Alternative Fuels (CNG, LPG, Bio-fuel)
  • 5.4 By Propulsion Technology
    • 5.4.1 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
    • 5.4.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
    • 5.4.3 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
    • 5.4.4 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
  • 5.5 By Sales Channel
    • 5.5.1 OEM-Authorized Dealer
    • 5.5.2 Grey Import / Parallel
  • 5.6 By Country
    • 5.6.1 South Africa
    • 5.6.2 Nigeria
    • 5.6.3 Kenya
    • 5.6.4 Ethiopia
    • 5.6.5 Ghana
    • 5.6.6 Tanzania
    • 5.6.7 Angola
    • 5.6.8 Zambia

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Toyota Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.2 Volkswagen AG
    • 6.4.3 Hyundai Motor Company
    • 6.4.4 Nissan Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.5 Isuzu Motors Ltd.
    • 6.4.6 Ford Motor Company
    • 6.4.7 Groupe Renault
    • 6.4.8 Honda Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.9 Suzuki Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.10 Subaru Corporation
    • 6.4.11 Stellantis N.V.
    • 6.4.12 Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz)
    • 6.4.13 BYD Co.
    • 6.4.14 Geely Auto Group
    • 6.4.15 Changan Auto
    • 6.4.16 JAC Motors
    • 6.4.17 BAIC Group
    • 6.4.18 Tata Motors
    • 6.4.19 Mahindra & Mahindra
    • 6.4.20 Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (Nigeria)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment