电动车 (EV) 电池生产：对关键矿产供应链的依赖

目前和未来的脱碳要求（尤其是轻型汽车）正在推动交通运输的电气化转变，汽车製造商正在製定雄心勃勃的生产目标。因此，为了支持数百万辆插电式电动车 (PEV)，先进电池的产量正在大幅增加，原料的采购也随之增加，特别是锂、镍和钴。开采和提炼这些矿物的供应链目前集中在特定地区，特别是中国，几乎在每个市场都占据主导份额。公司和政府都希望提高这些材料的产量，同时努力增加整体供应，实现来源多元化并降低中断风险。

虽然这些关键矿物的新来源已经建立，但供应中断（包括供应短缺）可能会减缓广泛电气化和相关的全球温室气体排放减少的进展。为了使这项转型取得成功，利害关係人必须建立更在地化的新供应链，透过回收建立循环生态系统以减少对开采的依赖，我们必须创新方法来减少对能源的依赖。

本报告探讨了电动车 (EV) 电池的当前需求和驱动因素，这些因素导致电池矿物需求增加。我们也考虑了电池材料供应链多元化的动机以及供应链中断的潜在负面后果。它还提出了重要建议，以避免短期短缺并在电池材料供应链中建立长期可持续性。

目录

• 火花
• 情境
• 推荐
• 电动车对重要矿物的需求增加
  • 目前的供应链地理位置集中
  • 电动车的增加意味着更多、更大的电池
  • 建立供应链需要时间
  • 扩大回收规模需要数年时间
• 矿产资源严重短缺可能阻碍电动车的普及
  • 电池厂扩建可能无法及时完成
  • 中国汽车製造商可能会推翻传统汽车製造商
  • 运输设备脱碳的努力可能会受挫
• 汽车产业需打造弹性循环电池供应链
  • 建立健全的回收生态系统
  • 继续为当地供应链提供激励措施
  • 推广替代电池化学材料
  • 确保强大的充电网络

The shift to transportation electrification is driven by existing and future decarbonization requirements, particularly for light duty automobiles, and has resulted in automakers setting ambitious production goals. The result is an enormous increase in advanced battery cell production to support millions of plug-in EVs (PEVs), which will require a corresponding increase in raw material sourcing, particularly for lithium, nickel, and cobalt. The current supply chains for mining and refining these minerals are heavily focused in specific geographic areas, with China having an outsized share of nearly every market. Businesses and governments alike desire to increase production of these materials concurrent with efforts to increase the overall supply to diversify their sourcing and reduce the risk of disruption.

While these new sources for critical minerals are being established, disruptions in supply, including shortages, could delay progress toward widespread electrification and the related benefits in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. To make this transition successfully, stakeholders must build new, more localized supply chains, establish a circular ecosystem through recycling to reduce dependence on mining, and innovate ways to reduce the reliance on some of these materials.

This Guidehouse Insights Strategy Insight reviews the current demand and market drivers for EV batteries that are leading to increased demand for battery minerals. It explains the motivations for diversifying the battery material supply chain and the potential negative consequences of supply chain disruption. It also offers key recommendations for avoiding near-term shortages and establishing long-term sustainability in the battery material supply chain.

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

EVs Have Driven Increases in the Need for Critical Minerals

Current Supply Chains Are Concentrated Geographically

More EVs Mean More, and Bigger, Batteries

Building Supply Chains Takes Time

Recycling Will Take Years to Scale

Critical Mineral Shortages Could Short-Circuit EV Adoption

Battery Plants Might Not Scale in Time

Chinese Automakers Could Topple Legacy Automakers

Transportation Decarbonization Efforts Could Falter

The Auto Industry Must Build a Resilient, Circular Battery Supply Chain

Establish Robust Recycling Ecosystems

Continue Providing Incentives for Localized Supply Chains

Promote Alternative Battery Chemistries

Ensure Robust Charging Networks

List of Figures

• LD BEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032