全球电动客车市场：纯电动和燃料电池大型客车市场预测（2025-2034）

The Global Electric Bus Market: Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Heavy Passenger Vehicles, Market Forecasts, 2025-2034

出版日期: 2024年05月28日 | 出版商:

Guidehouse Insights | 英文 40 Pages; 45 Tables, Charts & Figures | 订单完成后即时交付

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公车在国际社会中发挥重要作用，促进了经济发展和社会流动。大众客运是世界各地的基本需求，而公车历来提供并将继续提供大部分所需的运输能力。公车也提供了一种简单但高效的电气化脱碳手段。

全球客车市场已经成熟，但电动客车市场可能还不成熟。客运被视为脱碳的明显机会，在过去十年中，人们对内燃机以外的替代推进方法的兴趣不断增长。本报告分析了未来10年全球大型电动客车市场。整个客车市场分为三类：公车、长途客车和校车，并对这三个细分市场的纯电动（BE）和燃料电池（FC）客车的销量进行了估算。

虽然 BE 巴士的采用已经开始，并且势头强劲，尤其是在公车和校车领域，但燃料电池巴士的前景正在发生变化，受到成本和适用性因素的不确定性影响。

本报告分析了全球电动客车市场，包括市场的基本结构和价值链、主要推动和限制、整体市场规模趋势展望以及我们正在调查的细分市场和车型的详细趋势。

Buses play a fundamental role in global society, enabling both economic development and social mobility. Mass passenger transport is a fundamental necessity in every part of the world, and buses have historically provided much of the necessary capacity and will likely continue to do so. They also offer a simple yet highly effective decarbonization lever via electrification.

The global bus market is a mature one, but the same may not be said for the electric bus market. Passenger transport is regarded as a clear opportunity for decarbonization, and interest in non-internal combustion engine alternative propulsion methods has been developing over the last decade. This Guidehouse Insights report examines the global market for heavy electric buses over the next 10 years. It presents forecasts for the overall bus market segmented into three categories: transit buses, long-distance buses, and school buses. For these three segments, unit sales and adoption rates are presented for both battery electric (BE) and fuel cell (FC) vehicles.

The report concludes that, while the adoption of BE buses-most notably in the transit and school bus segments-is already well underway and developing momentum, the outlook for FC buses is far less assured, as a function of both cost and appropriateness.

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1 Drivers
- 2.1.1 Incentivization
- 2.1.2 Regional Emissions Regulations
  - 2.1.2.1 North America
  - 2.1.2.2 Europe
  - 2.1.2.3 Asia Pacific
- 2.1.3 Local Regulations
- 2.1.4 Tendering and Procurement Criteria
- 2.1.5 Procurement Cost
2.2 Barriers
2.1 Cold Weather Impact
- 2.2.2 Lack of Reliability and Interchangeability
- 2.2.3 Lack of Trained Technicians
- 2.2.4 Charging Issues
2.3 Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

3.1 Competitive Landscape
- 3.1.1 Mergers and Acquisitions
- 3.1.2 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

4.1 Scope
4.2 Methodology
4.3 Limitations
4.4 Key Assumptions
4.5 Forecasts
- 4.5.1 Overall Bus Market
- 4.5.2 Electric Bus Market
- 4.5.3 Transit Bus Market
  - 4.5.3.1 Battery Electric Transit Buses
  - 4.5.3.2 Fuel Cell Transit Buses
- 4.5.4 Long-Distance Bus Market
  - 4.5.4.1 Battery Electric Long-Distance Buses
  - 4.5.4.2 Fuel Cell Long-Distance Buses
- 4.5.5 School Bus Market
  - 4.5.5.1 Battery Electric School Buses
  - 4.5.5.2 Fuel Cell School Buses