美国长途卡车的电气化

产业专家预测，由于购买成本高且缺乏充电基础设施，长途卡车将成为最后实现电气化的车辆领域之一。2023年，美国销售的125,000 辆半挂卡车中只有 500 辆是电动车。未来10年，州级零排放汽车销售规定，例如加州的高级清洁卡车法规，将成为电动半拖车销售的主要推动力。从2035年开始，电池成本的降低和充电基础设施的发展预计将成为销售的驱动因素。

道路充电的供电挑战意味着道路充电埠的数量及其额定容量存在很大的不确定性。在一种情况下，卡车加油站只有兆瓦级超快速充电设备，充电时间与柴油箱加油的时间大致相同。另一种情况是将用于公路卡车的兆瓦充电器与用于长时间停放卡车的较慢充电器结合。部署远端电气化不仅需要解决这项挑战，还需要确定电动拖车所需的卡车站数量。

本报告分析了美国长途卡车运输市场及其未来十年的电气化潜力。按动力系统和地区划分的2024年至2033年美国长途卡车的部署和销售预测，以及同期支援电动长途卡车营运所需的充电基础设施和能源的预测依地区和用例显示。

目录

第1章 执行摘要

• 长途充电基础设施
• 长距离电气化的影响

第2章 市场问题

• 促进因素
  • 政策义务
  • 降低成本
• 抑制因素
  • 购买价格
  • 基础设施
  • 产能限制
  • 车辆重量

第3章 产业价值链

• 竞争状况
  • 氢燃料电池卡车
  • 併购（M&A）活动
  • 商业模式的演变

第4章 市场预测

• 纯电动车简介
• 个人拥有的卡车
  • 营运中的私人长途卡车数量
  • 已售出的私人长途卡车数量
• 车队自有卡车
  • 车队拥有的长途卡车数量
  • 已售出车队拥有的长途卡车数量
• 长途卡车充电的能源使用
• 长途卡车充电埠介绍现状

第5章 结论/建议

• 三大要点
• 建议
  • 车队经理
  • OEM
  • 卡车站营运商
  • 实用程式
  • 政府机构

第6章 首字母缩写词和缩写词列表

第7章 目录

第8章 图表

第9章 研究范围、资料来源/研究方法、註

Industry experts expect long-haul trucks to be among the last automotive sectors to electrify due to their high purchase cost and the lack of available charging infrastructure. In 2023, only 500 semitruck sales out of 125,000 in the US were EVs. Over the next 10 years, the primary driver for electric semi sales will be state-level zero emissions vehicle sales mandates such as California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. After 2035, sales are likely to be driven by reductions in battery costs and a more established charging infrastructure.

The challenge of providing power for en route charging means a high level of uncertainty around the number of corridor ports and their rated capacity. Under one scenario, truck stops would only have ultrafast megawatt charging, and charging would take a similar amount of time as refueling a diesel tank. Another scenario would entail a combination of megawatt chargers for trucks continuing on their way and slower chargers for trucks parking for longer periods. Rolling out long-haul electrification will require addressing this challenge as well as determining the number of truck stops necessary for electric semis.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes the US long-haul trucking market and its potential for electrification over the next decade. It provides deployment and sales forecasts for long-haul trucks in the US from 2024-2033, broken down by powertrain and region, and forecasts for the charging infrastructure and energy needed to support electrified long-haul trucking operations for the same time period, broken down by region and use case.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Long-Haul Charging Infrastructure
• 1.2 Long-Haul Electrification Impacts

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Policy Mandates
    • 2.1.1.1 Advanced Clean Trucks
    • 2.1.1.2 Advanced Clean Fleets
  • 2.1.2 Cost Reductions
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Purchase Price
  • 2.2.2 Infrastructure
    • 2.2.2.1 Market Manipulation
  • 2.2.3 Limited Production Capacity
  • 2.2.4 Vehicle Weight

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks
  • 3.1.2 M&A Activities
  • 3.1.3 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 BEV Adoption
• 4.2 Individually Owned Trucks
  • 4.2.1 Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
  • 4.2.2 Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
• 4.3 Fleet-Owned Trucks
  • 4.3.1 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
  • 4.3.2 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
• 4.4 Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging
• 4.5 Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Fleet Managers
  • 5.2.2 OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Truck Stop Operators
  • 5.2.4 Utilities
  • 5.2.5 Government Agencies

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Tables

• Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US West: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US West: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Midwest: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Northeast: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Southeast: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US Southwest: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US West: 2024-2033

Electric Semitrucks Registered in 2023, US

Companies Registering Semitrucks in 2023, US

List of Figures

• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Total Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales by Powertrain, US: 2024-2033
• Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging by Use Case, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Region, US: 2024-2033
• Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks by Use Case, US: 2024-2033

States with Advanced Clean Trucks Policies

Corridor Electrification Initiatives