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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1912143
太阳能热感:全球市场份额和排名、总收入和需求预测(2026-2032 年)Solar Thermal - Global Market Share and Ranking, Overall Sales and Demand Forecast 2026-2032 |
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本报告分析了 2015 年至 2032 年全球太阳能热感(聚光太阳能发电,CSP)市场,以 2024 年为基准年。
本报告将聚光太阳能热感(CSP) 定义为一种公用事业规模的系统,它透过聚光光学元件、热转换和储存模组以及发电模组将直接太阳辐射转换为可调谐的电能,并涵盖了四种技术系列:抛物槽式、太阳能塔式、线性菲涅尔反射器和抛物面碟式/碟式斯特林系统。
以以金额为准,全球太阳能热感(CSP)市场预计在2024年约为12.7亿美元,并预计到2032年将达到约116.5亿美元。这意味着从2015年到2032年,该市场将维持约24%的强劲复合年增长率,其中2020年至2024年的复合年增长率预计将达到35%,成长尤为迅速。此外,预计2025年将是一个转捩点,市场规模预计将比2024年翻倍。
就装置容量而言,2024 年全球 CSP热感的装置容量和交付容量估计约为 1,267 兆瓦,预计到 2032 年将成长到约 11,649 兆瓦,反映出在关键预测期内,成长率将达到十几到二十几兆瓦。
从历史上看,CSP 的部署遵循着「繁荣与萧条」的模式:最初在北美、中东和北非 (MENA)、西班牙和南非等市场的建设推动全球收入在 2015-2019 年左右达到顶峰,随后在 2020 年出现显着下降,因为多项政策支持期结束,新的竞标设计设计和光伏风能 (PV) 和风能。
当前週期以对可调度性和长时储能日益增长的兴趣为特征,而中国是推动成长的主要动力。我们也看到,在预测期内,中东和北非地区、拉丁美洲部分地区、北美、撒哈拉以南非洲以及部分亚太经合组织成员国市场均有明确的计划储备。 2020年至2025年间,中国已占据市场价值成长的大部分份额,预计收入将从2020年的约3.84亿美元增长到2024年的约7.39亿美元,2025年超过25亿美元,到2032年接近78亿美元。
在技术方面,市场正持续从槽式电站主导转型为塔式电站转型。虽然槽式电站仍占累积装置容量的很大一部分,但预计市场价值将越来越集中在整合熔盐储热技术的塔式电站计划中。从2027年到2032年,塔式电站预计将占销售额的四分之三或更多,槽式电站的份额将下降到个位数高位,线性菲涅尔电站将保持十几个百分点的稳定市场份额,而碟式电站仍将占据较小的市场份额。
这项变更反映了塔式设计能够实现更高的温度、更高的储存密度,并为需要持续数小时甚至一夜的电力转移的电网提案更强的系统价值。
该报告按地区详细列出了中国、欧洲、北美、中东和北非(MENA)、南美、撒哈拉以南非洲以及亚太地区(APeC)的收入、销量和成长指标。报告追踪了从西班牙、美国、北非和南非最初的聚光太阳能发电(CSP)热潮,到主导的新一轮热潮,再到2020年代末和2030年代初主导MENA、拉丁美洲和其他高日照地区大规模混合能源竞标和工业脱碳计划驱动的新一轮热潮的转变。对于每个地区,该研究计算了:- 历史销售额(2015-2020年)- 復苏和在建项目(2021-2026年)- 到2032年的预测增长,包括各时期的复合年增长率(CAGR)以及大规模发电和工艺热/工业应用构成比的变化。
在供应方面, 热感行业仍然高度集中:按以收益为准,前五大製造商几乎占据了 2024 年的全部市场(CR5 = 99.8%),赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数也证实了这种高度的行业集中度。
竞争格局由一小群中国EPC公司和系统整合商(特别是中国电建、中国能源/中东欧和达成科技)塑造,它们共同主导了近期的EPC收入,而像Abengoa、Sener、Cobra、Acciona、TSK和GE这样的老牌国际企业,在现有计划合和技术业绩记录方面发挥着比近期收入更重要的作用。
该报告还绘製了广泛的价值链,从关键原材料供应商(热燃料、反射镜、接收器、涡轮机、热交换器)到计划开发商、EPC承包商和最终用户产业。
需求前景受以下四个结构性因素支撑:(1)太阳能资源丰富的电力系统需要可靠的可调度容量和晚间高峰需求覆盖;(2)采矿、炼油、化工、食品饮料和海水淡化等行业的高温製程热和蒸气的工业脱碳;(3)锂离子电池储能(BESS)效率范围之外的长时储能存在经济缺口,熔盐热能储存(TES)可以与之竞争;(4)对结合太阳能光伏(PV)、太阳能热感(CSP)和电池储能的混合大型企划的竞标日益增多,以优化系统层面的投资组合。
为了平衡这些驱动因素,该报告指出了关键挑战和风险:与太阳能+储能係统相比,结构性地更高的初始资本支出和更长的投资回收期;持续存在的融资能力和性能风险问题;跨紧密耦合子系统的EPC执行的复杂性;以及镜场、热流体和接收器相对密集的运行和维护要求。
调查方法结合了自下而上汇总公司层面的聚光热感)收入、装置容量和预估平均售价(ASP)数据,以及自上而下利用区域计划资料库、政策框架和二手统计数据进行三角验证的方法。市场规模估算以出厂价为基础,并以2024年作为量化基准年。 2025年至2032年的营收和销售预测基于情境分析成长预测、德尔菲法输入以及与已公布计划储备的交叉检验。最终数据集清楚地展现了到2032年,聚光太阳能发电技术将从一项观点技术热感成为一种更广泛采用的可调度可再生能源选择和长时储能解决方案,应用于高直接辐射(DNI)电力系统和工业丛集。
市场区隔
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This report analyzes the global Solar Thermal (Concentrated Solar Power, "CSP") market over the period 2015-2032, with 2024 as the base year. It defines Solar Thermal (CSP) as utility-scale systems that convert direct normal irradiance into dispatchable electricity via concentrating optics, a thermal conversion and storage block, and a power block, covering four technology families: parabolic trough, solar power tower, linear Fresnel reflector, and parabolic dish / dish-Stirling systems.
In value terms, the global Solar Thermal (CSP) market is estimated at about US$1.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach roughly US$11.65 billion by 2032. This implies a robust compound annual growth rate of around 24% over 2015-2032, with a particularly strong upswing from 2020 to 2024 (35% CAGR) and a step-change year in 2025 when market value is expected to double versus 2024.
On the volume side, global installed and delivered Solar Thermal (CSP) capacity is assessed at approximately 1,267 MW in 2024, rising to about 11,649 MW by 2032, reflecting high-teens to mid-twenties growth rates in the main forecast window.
Historically, CSP deployment has followed a boom-and-pause pattern. Early build-out in markets such as North America, MENA, Spain and South Africa drove global revenues to peaks around 2015-2019, followed by a pronounced dip in 2020 as several policy windows closed and new auction designs favored PV and wind.
The current cycle is characterized by a renewed focus on dispatchability and long-duration storage, with growth anchored in China and, over the forecast horizon, a visible pipeline in MENA, parts of Latin America, North America, Sub-Saharan Africa and selected APeC markets. China already accounts for the bulk of 2020-2025 market value growth, with revenue rising from roughly US$384 million in 2020 to about US$739 million in 2024 and over US$2.5 billion in 2025, before approaching US$7.8 billion by 2032.
Technologically, the market continues to transition from trough-dominated fleets toward tower-centric portfolios. While parabolic trough plants still represent a large share of the cumulative installed base, forecast market value is increasingly concentrated in power tower projects with integrated molten-salt thermal energy storage. By 2027-2032, tower systems are expected to account for roughly three-quarters or more of annual sales value, with parabolic troughs declining to a high-single-digit share, linear Fresnel systems occupying a stable niche in the low-teens, and dish-engine configurations remaining a very small fraction of the market.
This evolution reflects the higher temperature, higher storage density and stronger system-value proposition of tower designs where grids require multi-hour or overnight shifting.
Regionally, the report provides detailed revenue, volume and growth metrics for China, Europe, North America, MENA, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and APeC. It traces the shift from the first CSP wave in Spain, the United States, North Africa and South Africa toward a new cycle led by China and, in the late-2020s and early-2030s, by large hybrid tenders and industrial-decabonization projects in MENA, Latin America and other high-DNI regions. For each region, the study quantifies historical sales value (2015-2020), the recovery and pipeline phase (2021-2026) and the forecast ramp-up through 2032, including CAGR by period and the changing mix between utility-scale power generation and process-heat/industrial applications.
On the supply side, the Solar Thermal (CSP) industry remains highly concentrated. In revenue terms, the top five manufacturers account for close to the entire 2024 market (CR5 ≈ 99.8%), with a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index consistent with a highly concentrated sector.
The competitive landscape is shaped by a small group of Chinese EPCs and system integrators (notably POWERCHINA, Energy China/CEEC and Dacheng Technology), which collectively dominate recent EPC revenue, alongside established international players such as Abengoa, SENER, COBRA, ACCIONA, TSK and GE, whose role is more visible in the legacy project fleet and technology references than in near-term revenue.
The report also maps the broader value chain, from key raw-material suppliers (HTF, mirrors, receivers, turbines, heat exchangers) to project developers, EPC contractors and end-use industries.
The demand outlook is underpinned by four structural drivers: (1) the need for firm, dispatchable capacity and evening-peak coverage in PV-rich power systems; (2) industrial decarbonization of high-temperature process heat and steam for sectors such as mining, refining, chemicals, food & beverage and desalination; (3) the economic gap for long-duration storage beyond the efficient range of Li-ion BESS, where molten-salt TES can become competitive; and (4) the rise of hybrid mega-project tenders that bundle PV, CSP and batteries and optimize portfolios at system level.
Counterbalancing these drivers, the report highlights key challenges and risks: structurally higher upfront CAPEX and longer payback compared with PV+BESS, persistent bankability and performance-risk concerns, EPC execution complexity across tightly coupled subsystems, and relatively intensive O&M requirements for mirror fields, heat-transfer media and receivers.
Methodologically, the study combines bottom-up aggregation of company-level Solar Thermal (CSP) revenue, installed capacity and implied ASPs with top-down triangulation using regional project databases, policy frameworks and secondary statistics. Market size estimates are expressed at factory-gate price level, 2024 is used as the quantitative base year, and revenues and volumes for 2025-2032 are projected using a mix of scenario-based growth assumptions, Delphi inputs and cross-checks against announced project pipelines. The resulting dataset provides a consistent view of how Solar Thermal (CSP) is expected to evolve from a niche technology into a more widely used dispatchable renewable option and long-duration storage solution in high-DNI power systems and industrial clusters through 2032.
Market Segmentation
By Company
Segment by Type
By Region
Chapter Outline
Chapter 1: Introduces the report scope of the report, global total market size (valve, volume and price). This chapter also provides the market dynamics, latest developments of the market, the driving factors and restrictive factors of the market, the challenges and risks faced by manufacturers in the industry, and the analysis of relevant policies in the industry.
Chapter 2: Detailed analysis of Solar Thermal (CSP) manufacturers competitive landscape, price, sales and revenue market share, latest development plan, merger, and acquisition information, etc.
Chapter 3: Provides the analysis of various market segments by Type, covering the market size and development potential of each market segment, to help readers find the blue ocean market in different market segments.
Chapter 4: Provides the analysis of various market segments by Application, covering the market size and development potential of each market segment, to help readers find the blue ocean market in different downstream markets.
Chapter 5: Sales, revenue of Solar Thermal (CSP) in regional level. It provides a quantitative analysis of the market size and development potential of each region and introduces the market development, future development prospects, market space, and market size of each country in the world.
Chapter 6: Provides profiles of key players, introducing the basic situation of the main companies in the market in detail, including product sales, revenue, price, gross margin, product introduction, recent development, etc.
Chapter 7: Analysis of industrial chain, including the upstream and downstream of the industry.
Chapter 8: Conclusion.