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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1441458
汽车AI模型技术及使用趋势(2023-2024)Automotive AI Foundation Model Technology and Application Trends Report, 2023-2024 |
自2023年起,更多车型将开始与基本车型对接,越来越多的Tier 1将推出汽车基础车型解决方案。尤其是Tesla在FSD V12方面的重大进步以及SORA的推出,加速了基于AI的模型在座舱和智慧驾驶方面的落地。
端到端自动驾驶基础设施模式的繁荣。
2023年2月,采用端到端自动驾驶车型的Tesla FSD v12.2.1不仅在员工和测试人员中开始推广,还在美国开始推广。首批客户的回馈表明,FSD V12 的功能相当强大,正在让以前不相信自动驾驶的普通人也能接触到 FSD。例如,Tesla FSD V12 可以绕过路上的水坑。Tesla工程师评论道, "这样的驾驶方法很难用显式代码来实现,但Tesla的端到端方法使之成为可能,只需付出很少的努力。"
基于人工智慧的自动驾驶模型的发展可分为四个阶段。
阶段 1.0 使用感知级基础模型(Transformer)。
2.0 阶段是模组化,底层模型用于感知、规划/控制和决策。
3.0阶段是端到端的基础模型(一个 "端" 是感测器的原始数据,另一个 "端" 直接输出驾驶动作)。
阶段 4.0 是从垂直人工智慧到通用人工智慧(AGI 的世界模型)的转变。
大多数公司目前处于 2.0 阶段,而 TeslaFSD V12 已经处于 3.0 阶段。其他 OEM 和 Tier 1 也在效法端到端基础模型 FSD V12。2024年1月30日,Xpeng Motor宣布下一步将全面提供汽车端到端模式。据悉,NIO和Li Auto也将于 2024 年发布 "基于端到端" 的自动驾驶车型。
FSD V12 的驾驶决策由人工智慧演算法产生。它使用经过大量视讯资料训练的端到端神经网络,取代了超过 300,000 行 C++ 程式码。FSD V12 提供了需要验证的新途径。如果实现,预计将对产业产生颠覆性影响。
2月16日,OpenAI发布了其文字转视讯转换模型SORA,展示了AI视讯应用的广泛采用。SORA不仅支援从文字和图像生成长达60秒的视频,而且在生成视频、创建复杂场景和角色以及模拟物理世界的能力方面显着超越了以前的技术。
SORA和FSD V12使AI能够透过视觉理解甚至模拟真实的物理世界。Elon Mask 认为,FSD 12 和 Sora 只是人工智慧透过视觉感知和理解世界的能力的两个成果,FSD 最终用于驾驶行为,Sora 用于视讯生成。
SORA的高人气进一步证明了FSD V12的合理性。马斯克说: "Tesla去年的生成影片。"
基于人工智慧的模型正在迅速发展,创造了新的机会。
三年来,自动驾驶的基础模型已经经历了多次演进,各大车厂的自动驾驶系统几乎每年都被迫重写,为后来者进入市场创造了机会。
在CVPR 2023上,SenseTime、OpenDriveLab、Horizon Robotics联合提出的端到端自动驾驶演算法UniAD荣获2023 Best Paper。
本报告对汽车人工智慧平台模型进行了调查和分析,并提供了演算法和平台模型的概述、平台模型的使用趋势、公司简介等。
Since 2023 ever more vehicle models have begun to be connected with foundation models, and an increasing number of Tier1s have launched automotive foundation model solutions. Especially Tesla's big progress of FSD V12 and the launch of SORA have accelerated implementation of AI foundation models in cockpits and intelligent driving.
End-to-End autonomous driving foundation models boom.
In February 2023, Tesla FSD v12.2.1, which adopts an end-to-end autonomous driving model, began to be pushed in the United States, not just to employees and testers. According to the feedback from the first customers, FSD V12 is quite powerful, allowing ordinary people who previously did not believe in and use autonomous driving to dare to use FSD. For example, Tesla FSD V12 can bypass puddles on roads. A Tesla engineer commented: this kind of driving approach is difficult to implement with explicit code, but Tesla's end-to-end approach makes it almost effortlessly.
The development of AI foundation models for autonomous driving can be divided into four phases.
Phase 1.0 uses a foundation model (Transformer) at the perception level.
Phase 2.0 is modularization, with foundation models used in perception, planning & control and decision.
Phase 3.0 is end-to-end foundation models (one "end" is raw data from sensors, and the other "end" directly outputs driving actions).
Phase 4.0 is about heading from vertical AI to artificial general intelligence (AGI's world model).
Most companies are now in Phase 2.0, while Tesla FSD V12 is already in Phase 3.0. Other OEMs and Tier1s have followed up with the end-to-end foundation model FSD V12. On January 30, 2024, Xpeng Motor announced that its end-to-end model will be fully available to vehicles in the next step. It is known that NIO and Li Auto will also launch "end-to-end based" autonomous driving models in 2024.
FSD V12's driving decisions are generated by an AI algorithm. It uses end-to-end neural networks trained with massive video data to replace more than 300,000 lines of C++ code. FSD V12 provides a new path that needs to be verified. If it is feasible, it will have a disruptive impact on the industry.
On February 16, OpenAI introduced text-to-video model SORA, signaling the wide adoption of AI video applications. SORA not only supports generation of up to 60-second videos from texts or images, but it well outperforms previous technologies in capabilities of video generation, complex scenario and character generation, and physical world simulation.
Through vision both SORA and FSD V12 enable AI to understand and even simulate the real physical world. Elon Mask believes that FSD 12 and Sora are just two of the fruits of AI's ability to recognize and understand the world through vision, and FSD is ultimately used for driving behaviors, and Sora is used to generate videos.
The high popularity of SORA is further evidence of the rationality of FSD V12. Musk said "Tesla generative video from last year".
AI foundation models evolve rapidly, bringing new opportunities.
In recent three years foundation models for autonomous driving have undergone several evolutions, and the autonomous driving systems of leading automakers must be rewritten almost every year, which also provides entry opportunities for late entrants.
At CVPR 2023, UniAD, an end-to-end autonomous driving algorithm jointly released by SenseTime, OpenDriveLab and Horizon Robotics, won the 2023 Best Paper.
In early 2024, Waytous' technical team and the Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly proposed GenAD, the industry's first generative end-to-end autonomous driving model which combines generative AI and end-to-end autonomous driving technology. This technology is a disruption to UniAD progressive process end-to-end solution, and explores a new end-to-end autonomous driving mode. The key is to using generative AI to predict temporal evolution of the vehicle and surroundings in past scenarios.
In February 2024, Horizon Robotics and Huazhong University of Science and Technology proposed VADv2, an end-to-end driving model based on probabilistic planning. VADv2 takes multi-view image sequences as input in a streaming manner, transforms sensor data into environmental token embeddings, outputs the probabilistic distribution of action, and samples one action to control the vehicle. Using only camera sensors, VADv2 achieves state-of-the-art closed-loop performance in CARLA Town05 benchmark test, much better than all existing approaches. It runs stably in a fully end-to-end manner, even without rule-based wrapper.
On the Town05 Long benchmark, VADv2 achieved a Drive Score of 85.1, a Route Completion of 98.4, and an Infraction Score of 0.87, as shown in Tab. 1. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art method, VADv2 achieves a higher Route Completion while significantly improving Drive Score by 9.0. It is worth noting that VADv2 only utilizes cameras as perception input, while DriveMLM utilizes both cameras and LiDAR. Furthermore, compared to the previous best method which only relies on cameras, VADv2 demonstrates even greater advantages, with a remarkable increase in Drive Score of up to 16.8.
Also in February 2024, the Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences at Tsinghua University and Li Auto introduced DriveVLM (its whole process shown in the figure below). A range of images are processed by a large visual language model (VLM) to perform specific chain of thought (CoT) reasoning to produce driving planning results. This large VLM includes a visual encoder and a large language model (LLM).
Due to limitations of VLMs in spatial reasoning and high computing requirements, DriveVLM team proposed DriveVLM-Dual, a hybrid system that combines advantages of DriveVLM and conventional autonomous driving pipelines. DriveVLM-Dual optionally combines DriveVLM with conventional 3D perception and planning modules, such as 3D object detector, occupancy network, and motion planner, allowing the system to achieve 3D localization and high-frequency planning. This dual-system design, similar to slow and fast thinking processes of human brain, can effectively adapt to changing complexity of driving scenarios.
AI and cloud companies attract attention as foundation models emerge.
As AI foundation models emerge, computing power, algorithm and data are indispensable. AI companies (iFLYTEK, SenseTime, Megvii, etc.) that are good at algorithms and have a large reserve of computing power, and cloud computing companies (Inspur, Volcengine, Tencent Cloud, etc.) with powerful intelligent computing centers, come under a spotlight of OEMs.
In the field of AI Foundation Model, SenseTime has deployed cockpit multimodal foundation model SenseChat-Vision, Artificial Intelligence Data Center (AIDC, with computing power of 6000P), and autonomous driving foundation model DriveMLM. In early 2024, SenseTime launched DriveMLM and achieved good results on CARLA, the most authoritative list of closed-loop test. DriveMLM is an intermediate solution between modular and end-to-end solutions and is interpretable.
For collection of autonomous driving corner cases, Volcengine and Haomo.ai work together to use foundation models to generate scenarios and improve annotation efficiency. The cloud service capabilities provided by Volcengine help Haomo.ai to improve the overall pre-annotation efficiency of DriveGPT by 10 times.
In 2023, Tencent released upgraded products and solutions in Intelligent Vehicle Cloud, Intelligent Driving Cloud Map, Intelligent Cockpit and other fields. In terms of computing power, Tencent Intelligent Vehicle Cloud enables 3.2Tbps bandwidth, 3 times higher computing performance, 10 times higher communication performance, and an over 60% increase in computing cluster GPU utilization, providing high-bandwidth, low-latency intelligent computing power support for training foundation models for intelligent driving. As for training acceleration, Tencent Intelligent Vehicle Cloud combines Angel Training Acceleration Framework, with training speed twice and reasoning speed 1.3 times faster than the industry's mainstream frameworks. Currently Bosch, NIO, NVIDIA, Mercedes-Benz, and WeRide among others are users of Tencent Intelligent Vehicle Cloud. In 2024, Tencent will further strengthen construction of AI foundation models.