市场调查报告书
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全球多晶硅市场:到 2028 年的预测 - 按等级(电子级、太阳能级)、形式(颗粒、块、棒)、产品类型、技术、应用和地区分析Polysilicon Market Forecasts to 2028 - Global Analysis By Grade (Electronic Grade and Solar Grade), By Form (Granules, Chunks and Rods), By Product Type, By Technology, By Application and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,2022 年全球多晶硅市场规模将达到 102.2 亿美元,预计 2028 年将达到 238.8 亿美元,预测期内復合年增长率为 15.2%。
冶金级硅用于开发称为多晶硅的多晶硅。多晶硅是由无数微小晶体组成的极其纯净的硅。这种物质是製造太阳能电池等电子设备的重要组成部分。
据国际可再生能源署(IRENA)预测,2021年全球太阳能光伏产能扩张总量将增长19%,新增装机133GW。此外,根据世界经济论坛的数据,到 2021 年,太阳能和风力发电合计将首次超过全球总发电量的 10%,其中太阳能发电约占 5%。
市场动态
促进者
对太阳能的需求
光伏行业对多晶硅的需求上升是推动市场增长的主要因素。新兴国家各种终端用户细分市场的发展和扩大,以及各种工业应用对多晶硅的需求不断增加,包括多晶太阳能电池板、电子产品、小型太阳能消费设备等的製造,也直接推动了市场的发展增长速度,并将产生积极影响。
抑製剂
原料短缺,成本高
因锁仓和价格波动导致的原材料供需短缺是市场增长的主要障碍。不断上升的研发成本、政府对工业活动的严格限制、进出口税的上涨以及严重的国际贸易壁垒将减缓市场增长速度。此外,高资本成本将限制市场的增长潜力。
机会
政府的努力
工业化程度的提高、对可再生能源的依赖程度增加、中小企业的增加,特别是在发展中国家,以及对技术进步和生产方法现代化的重视,预计都将促进该行业的发展。此外,政府将加大力度降低太阳能产品的成本。
威胁
使用资本密集型製造工艺
製造设备的开发成本高昂,需要最先进的设备和优秀的人力资源。目前,中国生产了全球约80%的产品,并主导着市场。疫情导致的供应链中断导致的硅芯片短缺影响了所有与半导体电子相关的行业,例如依赖半导体元件的汽车和家电。面对供应链的脆弱性,一些国家已经认识到国内生产对依赖半导体的行业的重要性和地缘政治影响。
COVID-19 的影响
2020 年,中国主导了全球市场,并在 COVID-19 爆发中发挥了核心作用。大流行期间实施的区域封锁限制扰乱了供应链,并对许多最终用途行业产生了负面影响。此外,贸易限制、劳动力和原材料短缺、海运集装箱短缺以及物流困难导致全球供应链因大流行而中断。此外,半导体产能受到原材料短缺的严重衝击,导致硅片全面短缺。
太阳能光伏行业预计在预测期内将是最大的
由于其广泛用于半导体和光伏面板的製造,预计光伏领域将在预测期内主导市场。然而,推动这一细分市场增长的主要因素是全球对安装光伏系统的需求不断增长,这反过来又推动了需求。
预计电子级细分市场在预测期内的复合年增长率最高
由于电子行业的快速增长和太阳能利用的增加,预计电子行业在预测期内的复合年增长率最高。由于传统能源的枯竭和对环境可持续性的日益关注,製造商正在各个业务领域寻找其他可再生能源选择,例如太阳能。此外,太阳能电池板与电网以及商业建筑和家庭中的各种电器一起用作替代电源。
市场占有率最高的地区
由于中国、韩国和印度等国家的消费量增加,亚太地区预计在预测期内将主导全球多晶硅市场。据中国政府统计,中国多晶硅年产能已达12.2万吨。此外,截至 2021 年 6 月,世界上最大的太阳能装置中的大部分已经确定在中国和印度。此外,位于印度拉贾斯坦邦焦特布尔地区的 Bhadla 太阳能发电厂总装机容量为 2,245 兆瓦。
复合年增长率最高的地区
由于停电次数增加、需要稳定的电力供应、各种终端用途行业的需求增加以及研发活动增加等各种因素,亚太地区将在预测期内见证多晶硅市场的最高复合年增长率。预计会更高。此外,中国和印度等国家消费和需求的增长、政府支持工业增长的投资政策以及经济的高速增长正在推动该地区的市场增长。
重大发展
2022 年 8 月,REC Silicon ASA 和 Mississippi Silicon 合作在美国开发太阳能供应链。他们计划将这条太阳能供应链从原料硅发展为多晶硅,最后发展为完全组装的模块。
2022 年 4 月,OCI Company Ltd 与韩国光伏製造商 Hanwha Solutions(Hanwha 的一个部门)就多晶硅供应签署了一份限制性谅解备忘录 (MoU)。订单价值约为12亿美元。这使该公司能够提高其利润率。
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根据产品组合、地域分布和战略联盟对主要参与者进行基准测试
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Polysilicon Market is accounted for $10.22 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $23.88 billion by 2028 growing at a CAGR of 15.2% during the forecast period. Metallurgical-grade silicon is used to develop polysilicon, also known as polycrystalline silicon. It is a very pure variety of silicon made up of numerous smaller crystals. This substance is an essential component used in the production of solar cells and other electronic devices.
According to International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the total global solar capacity expansion increased by 19% in 2021, recording 133 GW additional installations. Furthermore, as per World Economic Forum, in 2021, for the first time, solar and wind together generated over 10% of the total electricity across the world, with solar power accounting for around 5% of the share.
Market Dynamics:
Driver:
Demand for solar power
An increase in the demand for polysilicon from the solar power industry is the main factor driving the market growth rate. The development and expansion of various end-user verticals in emerging economies, as well as the rising demand for polysilicon for a range of industrial applications, including the production of multi-crystalline solar panels, electronics, civilian small solar equipment, and others, will also directly and favourably affect the market's growth rate.
Restraint:
Insufficient Raw Materials and High Costs
Lack of demand and supply for raw materials as a result of the lockup and price volatility will be a significant barrier to the market's growth. The market's growth rate will be decelerated by the high cost of R&D, stringent government regulations on industrial operations, rising import and export taxes, and severe international trade barriers. The market's capacity for growth will also be restricted by high capital costs.
Opportunity:
Government initiatives
An increase in industrialization, a greater reliance on renewable energy sources, an increase in the number of small and medium-sized businesses, particularly in developing countries, and a growing emphasis on technological advancements and modernization of production methods will all contribute to the industry's growth. The government will also make greater efforts to reduce the cost of solar products.
Threat:
Use of Capital Intensive Manufacturing Process
The development of a manufacturing facility is a costly venture that also needs cutting-edge equipment and a highly qualified workforce. At present, China controls the market, producing about 80% of the world's goods. A silicon chip shortage brought on by pandemic-related supply chain disruptions had an effect on all industries related to semiconductor electronics, including the automotive and consumer electronics sectors, which depend on semiconductor components. Several nations have realised the significance of domestic production and its geopolitical implications for their semiconductor-dependent industries after witnessing supply chain vulnerabilities.
COVID-19 Impact:
In 2020, China dominated the world market and served as the central focus of the COVID-19 outbreak. The regional lockdown restrictions that were imposed during the pandemic disrupted supply chains and had a negative impact on many end-use industries. Additionally, trade restrictions, labour and raw material shortages, a lack of freight containers, and logistical difficulties all contributed to the pandemic's disruption of the global supply chain. Moreover, the capacity for producing semiconductors was significantly impacted by the lack of raw materials, which led to a total lack of silicon chips.
The photovoltaic segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
Due to the widespread use of materials in the production of semiconductors and solar photovoltaic panels, the photovoltaics segment is expected to dominate the market during the projection period. However, the main factor driving this segment's growth is the rising global demand for the installation of solar PV systems, which in turn drives up demand.
The electronics grade segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Due to the electronics sector's rapid growth and a rise in solar energy usage, the electronics segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Manufacturers are considering other renewable energy options, like solar energy, in a variety of business sectors due to growing concerns about the depletion of conventional energy sources and the sustainability of the environment. Moreover, solar panels are used as alternative sources of electricity alongside various electrical appliances in power grids and commercial and residential buildings.
Region with largest share:
Because of rising consumption in nations like China, South Korea, and India, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to dominate the global market for polysilicon during the estimation period. The nation's 122,000-ton annual production capacity for polysilicon was emerging, according to the Chinese ministry. Additionally, the majority of the largest solar power facilities in the world as of June 2021 were identified in China and India. Moreover, with a total output capacity of 2,245 megawatts, the Bhadla solar farm is located in India's Jodhpur district, Rajasthan.
Region with highest CAGR:
Due to a variety of factors, including an increase in power outages, an immediate need for dependable power supply, rising demand from a range of end-use industries, and an increase in research and development activities, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to have the highest CAGR in the polysilicon market during the forecast period. Furthermore, rising consumption and demand from nations like China and India, investment policies by the government to support industrial growth, and high economic growth are driving market growth in this region.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Polysilicon market include SunEdison Inc, Hemlock Semiconductor Operations And Hemlock Semiconductor, REC Silicon ASA, Tokuyama Corporation, Mitsubishi Polycrystalline Silicon America Corporation, Qatar Solar Technologies, Wacker Chemie AG, Osaka Titanium Technologies Co. Ltd, OCI Solar Power LLC, Daqo New Energy Corp. and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited.
Key Developments:
In August 2022, REC Silicon ASA and Mississippi Silicon collaborated to develop a solar supply chain in the United States. They plan to develop this solar supply chain from raw silicon to polysilicon and finally to fully assembled modules.
In April 2022, OCI Company Ltd signed a binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the South Korean-based solar manufacturer Hanwha Solutions, which is a unit of Hanwha, for the supply of polysilicon. The order was valued at about USD 1.2 billion. This has helped the company in increasing its profit margins.
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Benchmarking of key players based on product portfolio, geographical presence, and strategic alliances