市场调查报告书
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1438218
增强型地热系统市场预测至 2030 年:按资源类型、深度、模拟方法、最终用户和地区进行的全球分析Enhanced Geothermal System Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Resource Type (Sedimentary Basin, Hot Dry Rock, Radiogenic, Molten Magma and Other Resource Types), Depth (Deep and Shallow), Simulation Method, End User,and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,2023 年全球增强型地热系统市场规模为 21 亿美元,预计在预测期内复合年增长率为 7.2%,到 2030 年将达到 34 亿美元。
增强型地热系统(EGS)是一种透过在地球表面深处的高温岩层中建立人工储存来增强传统地热发电的技术。 EGS 将水注入现有裂缝中,形成相互连接的通道网络,从而提高渗透性。此外,EGS 将地热的潜力扩展到没有天然储存的地区,使其成为一种有前景、永续且可靠的绿能,比传统石化燃料对环境的影响更小。
根据 GeoVision 的报告,到 2050 年,美国可能会有 17,500 个地热区域供暖 (GDH) 系统运作。
消费者意识不断增强
消费者越来越了解传统冷冻方法对环境的影响,包括某些冷媒对臭氧层的有害影响及其对全球暖化的影响。使用低全球升温潜能值材料和提高能源效率等特性符合人们对环保解决方案日益增长的需求。此外,意识提升宣传活动、教育措施和透明的沟通正在推动这个市场的发展。
初始成本高
大量钻井和增产作业的需要是 EGS 初始成本较高的主要原因之一。这个过程需要深入地壳钻探,需要专门的设备、熟练的劳动力和大量的投资,从而增加了整体成本。此外,这种不确定性是这个市场的主要障碍,因为它使潜在投资者望而却步,并使他们不愿意为结果不可预测的计划提供资金。
技术进步
EGS利用地壳深处的地热能,而传统的地热资源是有限的。水力碾碎和定向钻探等钻井技术的进步使得能够在更高的温度下到达更深的岩层,并扩大了可行的地热计划的地理范围。此外,这些创新解决了与 EGS 相关的历史挑战,从而推动了该市场的发展。
缺乏标准化
缺乏标准化方法和技术是新参与企业和潜在投资者的进入障碍。由于缺乏标准化,很难比较和评估不同EGS计划的绩效。此外,标准化的缺乏阻碍了该市场相关人员之间的合作和知识共用。
COVID-19 的影响
COVID-19 的疫情对增强型地热系统 (EGS) 市场产生了负面影响,带来了阻碍其成长的多项挑战。封锁、供应链中断和经济不确定性限制了计划开发和资金筹措。此外,对短期健康和经济问题的关注已从可再生能源项目转移,政府和产业优先考虑短期经济復苏而不是长期永续努力,这阻碍了市场的成长。
预计放射性部分在预测期内将是最大的
放射性部分估计占最大份额,因为它扩大了地热能的地理范围,使其适用于放射性热源较高的地区。这些地质构造含有铀、钍和钾等放射性元素,它们会随着时间的推移而崩坏并释放热量。此外,我们正在推动将EGS技术普及到具有有利于放射性热的特定地质特征的地区,这体现了利用地球天然热储存的战略方法。
预计液压领域在预测期内复合年增长率最高。
预计水电领域在预测期内的复合年增长率最高。水力增产涉及将水注入深层岩层以增加渗透性并产生裂缝。这对于 EGS 开发至关重要,因为重点是优化地热储存内的传热效率。此外,这种方法提高了地热能生产的整体可行性和扩充性,推动了该领域的成长。
在估计期间,欧洲占了最大的市场占有率。出于对永续和气候行动的关注,这些国家正在增加对包括EGS在内的地热技术的投资,以利用地球的热量来生产清洁和可再生能源。义大利和德国等几个欧洲国家处于 EGS探勘和部署的前沿。除了我们的能源转型(Energiewende)努力之外,我们还在探索先进的地热技术,为我们的可再生能源目标做出贡献。
由于其多样化的地质景观和不断增长的能源需求,预计亚太地区在预测期内将呈现最高的复合年增长率。该地区的主要公司包括 Calpine Corporation、AltaRock Energy Inc. 和 Ormat Technologies, Inc.。此外,减少碳排放和推广永续能源来源的努力进一步推动了 EGS 技术的采用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Enhanced Geothermal System Market is accounted for $2.1 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $3.4 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period. Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is a technology that enhances traditional geothermal power generation by creating artificial reservoirs in hot rock formations deep beneath the Earth's surface. It involves injecting water into existing fractures to create a network of interconnected channels, increasing permeability. In addition, EGS expands the potential of geothermal energy to regions lacking natural reservoirs, making it a promising, sustainable, and reliable source of clean power with reduced environmental impact compared to traditional fossil fuels.
According to the GeoVision report, the U.S. has the potential for 17,500 Geothermal District Heating (GDH) systems to operate by 2050.
Increasing consumer awareness
Consumers are increasingly informed about the environmental impact of traditional refrigeration methods, including the harmful effects of certain refrigerants on the ozone layer and their contribution to global warming. Characteristics such as the use of low-GWP materials and improved energy efficiency align with this growing demand for eco-friendly solutions. Furthermore, awareness campaigns, educational initiatives, and transparent communication have thereby propelled this market.
High initial costs
The need for extensive drilling and well stimulation operations is one of the primary reasons for the high initial costs of EGS. The process involves drilling deep into the earth's crust, which requires specialized equipment, skilled labor, and substantial investment, contributing to the overall expenses. Furthermore, this uncertainty discourages potential investors who may be hesitant to fund projects with unpredictable outcomes, thereby significantly hindering this market.
Technological advancements
EGS involves harnessing geothermal energy from deep within the Earth's crust, where traditional geothermal resources are limited. Developments in drilling technologies, like hydraulic fracturing and directed drilling, have made it possible to reach hotter and deeper rock formations, increasing the geographic reach of feasible geothermal projects. Moreover, these technological innovations have addressed historical challenges associated with EGS, which is driving this market.
Lack of standardization
The absence of standardized practices and technologies creates barriers to entry for new players and potential investors who may be hesitant to participate in a market where there are no established benchmarks or best practices. The absence of standardization makes it difficult to compare and assess the performance of different EGS projects. Furthermore, the absence of standardization hampers collaboration and knowledge sharing among stakeholders in this market.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) market, introducing several challenges that impede its growth. Lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, and economic uncertainties have limited project development and financing. Furthermore, the focus on immediate health and economic concerns has shifted attention away from renewable energy projects, with governments and industries prioritizing short-term recovery over long-term sustainable initiatives that have hampered market growth.
The radiogenic segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The radiogenic segment is estimated to hold the largest share because it broadens the geographical scope of geothermal energy, making it applicable in regions with higher radiogenic heat sources. These formations contain radioactive elements such as uranium, thorium, and potassium, which decay and release heat over time. Furthermore, it reflects a strategic approach to harnessing Earth's natural heat reservoirs and propelling the reach of EGS technology to areas with specific geological characteristics conducive to radiogenic heat production.
The hydraulic segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The hydraulic segment is anticipated to have highest CAGR during the forecast period. Hydraulic stimulation involves injecting water into deep rock formations to enhance permeability and create fractures. It is crucial to EGS development as it focuses on optimizing the efficiency of heat transfer within the geothermal reservoir. Moreover, this approach enhances the overall viability and scalability of geothermal energy production, which is boosting this segment's growth.
Europe commanded the largest market share during the extrapolated period. Due to a focus on sustainable development and combating climate change, these countries are increasingly investing in geothermal technologies, including EGS, to harness the Earth's heat for clean and renewable energy. Several European nations, such as Italy and Germany, are at the forefront of EGS exploration and implementation. In addition to its commitment to the Energiewende (energy transition), it is also exploring advanced geothermal technologies to contribute to its renewable energy goals.
Asia Pacific is expected to witness highest CAGR over the projection period, owing to its diverse geological landscape and increasing energy demand. This region is home to some of the major players, such as Calpine Corporation, AltaRock Energy Inc., and Ormat Technologies, Inc. Moreover, initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable energy sources further drive the adoption of EGS technologies.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in the Enhanced Geothermal System Market include Enel SpA, Aboitiz Power Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd, AltaRock Energy, Inc., Energy Development Corporation, Schlumberger, Quaise Energy, Toshiba Corporation, Ormat Technologies, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Kenya Electricity Generating Company Limited, Greenfire Energy, Geodynamics Limited, Siemens AG and Calpine Corporation.
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