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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1446975
2030 年柴油市场预测:按产品、应用、最终用户和地区分類的全球分析Diesel Fuel Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Product (Petroleum Diesel, Hydrogenated Oils and Fats, Diethyl Ether, Synthetic Diesel and Biodiesel), Application (Commercial Vehicles and Passenger Vehicles), End User and By Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC的数据,2023年全球柴油市场规模为2,390.6亿美元,预计2030年将达到3,585.1亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为6.0%。
柴油,也称为轻油,是一种从原油中精製的液体燃料,比汽油具有更多的可用能量。柴油由动物脂肪、天然气和煤炭液化技术生产。它由从石油中获得的碳氢化合物的混合物组成,例如生物柴油、生物质液化柴油和天然气液化柴油。柴油通常用于柴油发动机,广泛用于运输、工业机械、发电和农业等多种应用。
根据美国能源情报署的数据,美国三家炼油厂生产了约 17.5 亿桶(734.6 亿加仑)的 ULSD。
工业化、都市化进展
随着各国工业化程度的提高,製造业、建筑业、采矿业和其他行业的机械和设备对动力来源的需求不断增加。此外,随着都市化扩大了公路、铁路、港口等交通网络,越来越多地使用柴油引擎驱动的车辆和设备来运输货物和人员。此外,都市区需要柴油来发电、备用发电机和暖气系统。工业化和都市化的共同影响正在推动柴油需求并加速市场成长。
替代燃料的兴起
柴油引擎的主导地位面临绿色挑战。替代燃料越来越受欢迎,包括电动替代燃料、合成柴油和生质柴油。这些竞争对手有潜力取代柴油,因为它们燃烧更清洁,排放气体更少。随着技术进步和成本下降,柴油仍难以保持竞争力。柴油燃料市场受到向绿色替代燃料过渡的严重影响,迫使该行业进行适应和发展,以在未来保持竞争力。
提高效率
柴油引擎技术的进步,例如燃油喷射系统和燃烧过程的改进,提高了燃油效率并减少了排放气体。这减少了柴油引擎车辆和设备的环境足迹,同时降低了消费者和企业的营业成本。此外,效率的提高将增强柴油车辆和设备在市场上的竞争力,并使柴油成为交通、工业和发电应用的可行且永续的能源选择。
严格的环境法规
针对空气污染和温室气体排放的法规可能会对柴油燃料製造商和使用者提出昂贵的要求,并降低柴油相对于清洁替代品的竞争力。强制车辆和设备排放控制、低硫法规和碳定价机制提高了营运成本并阻碍了对柴油技术的投资。这降低了消费者对柴油的信心并鼓励采用替代燃料,从而威胁市场的稳定和成长。
COVID-19 的影响
由于全球封锁和旅行限制,柴油需求大幅下降,特别是在运输和工业领域。经济活动减少和製造业放缓进一步限制了需求。然而,随着限制的放鬆,在经济復苏和货运量增加的推动下,需求开始復苏。油价波动、供应链中断以及向远距工作的转变也影响了市场趋势。
预计石油柴油领域将在预测期内成为最大的领域
石油柴油领域预计将占最大份额。石油柴油源自原油,为机械、巴士、卡车和其他车辆提供动力,同时实现出色的燃油效率并因其排放气体而受到批评。对于重型应用,儘管生物柴油和合成柴油等更环保的替代燃料越来越受欢迎,但仍需要石化柴油。此外,石化柴油能源密度高且相对便宜,使其成为许多消费者和产业的首选。
预计海洋工业领域在预测期内复合年增长率最高
预计海洋工业领域在预测期内将出现良好成长。海洋工业大量使用柴油来为各种尺寸的船舶(包括货船、游轮、渔船和海上平台)提供推进和发电。柴油燃料因其高能量密度、稳定性和可用性而成为船舶应用的首选,可在远距和恶劣的海洋环境中提供高效可靠的性能。
在估计期间,亚太地区占据最大的市场占有率。随着都市化的推进,该地区的人口不断增加。这增加了对个人和商业交通的需求。因此,该地区的交通运输业不断发展,柴油广泛用于汽车、卡车、巴士和摩托车。此外,亚太地区的工业、建筑业、采矿业和农业部门正在多元化。柴油是这些行业发电机、机械和其他设备的动力来源,推动了市场成长。
由于现代技术的可用性不断增加以及主要参与者的存在,预计北美在预测期内将出现盈利成长。柴油是重型车辆的主要来源,在北美货运中发挥重要作用。此外,由于都市化和工业化程度的提高,开发中国家对柴油的需求正在增加。随着这些经济体的扩张,该地区对柴油的需求因运输、发电和建筑活动的增加而加剧。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Diesel Fuel Market is accounted for $239.06 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $358.51 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 6.0% during the forecast period. Diesel fuel, also called diesel oil, is a liquid fuel refined from crude oil and has better usable energy than gasoline. Diesel fuel is produced from animal fat, natural gas, and coal liquefaction techniques. It is composed of a mixture of hydrocarbons that are obtained from petroleum, such as biodiesel, biomass to liquid, or gas to liquid diesel. Diesel fuel is commonly used in diesel engines, which are widely employed in various applications, including transportation, industrial machinery, power generation, and agriculture.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, the three US refineries produced approximately 1.75 billion barrels (73.46 billion gallons) of ULSD.
Rising industrialization and urbanization
As countries undergo industrialization, there is an increased demand for diesel fuel to power machinery and equipment in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and mining. Additionally, urbanisation leads to the expansion of transportation networks, including roads, railways, and ports, which rely heavily on diesel-powered vehicles and equipment for the movement of goods and people. Moreover, urban areas require diesel for power generation, backup generators, and heating systems. The combined effect of industrialization and urbanisation drives up demand for diesel fuel, thereby accelerating market growth.
Rise of alternative fuels
Diesel's reign faces a green challenge! The focus is shifting to the growing popularity of alternative fuels, including electric alternatives, synthetic diesel, and biodiesel. These competitors may displace diesel because of their cleaner burning and fewer emissions. As technology advances and costs decrease, diesel continues to struggle to stay competitive. The market for diesel fuel is being severely impacted by this move towards greener alternatives, which is pushing the industry to adapt and develop in order to remain competitive in the future.
Increased efficiency
Advancements in diesel engine technology, such as improved fuel injection systems and combustion processes, enhance fuel economy and reduce emissions. This translates to lower operating costs for consumers and businesses while reducing the environmental footprint of diesel-powered vehicles and equipment. Moreover, efficiency improvements strengthen the competitiveness of diesel-powered vehicles and equipment in the market, positioning diesel fuel as a viable and sustainable energy option for transportation, industry, and power generation applications.
Stringent environmental regulations
Regulations targeting air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions impose costly requirements on diesel fuel producers and users, potentially making diesel less competitive compared to cleaner alternatives. Mandates such as emission standards for vehicles and equipment, low sulphur content regulations and carbon pricing mechanisms raise operating expenses and deter investment in diesel technologies. This threatens market stability and growth by reducing consumer confidence in diesel fuel and encouraging the adoption of alternative fuels.
Covid-19 Impact
With global lockdowns and travel restrictions, demand for diesel plummeted, particularly in transportation and industrial sectors. Due to reduced economic activity and slowdowns in manufacturing further suppressed demand. However, as restrictions eased, demand began to recover, driven by resuming economic activities and increased freight transportation. Fluctuations in oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and shifts towards remote work also influenced market dynamics.
The petroleum diesel segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The petroleum diesel segment is estimated to hold the largest share. Petroleum diesel is derived from crude oil and powers machines, buses, trucks, and other vehicles while achieving great fuel economy and drawing criticism for its emissions. For heavy-duty applications, petroleum diesel is still necessary, even as greener alternatives like biodiesel and synthetic diesel gain popularity. Furthermore, petroleum diesel offers high energy density and is relatively affordable, making it a preferred choice for many consumers and industries.
The marine industry segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The marine industry segment is anticipated to have lucrative growth during the forecast period. The marine industry relies heavily on diesel fuel for propulsion and power generation in vessels of various sizes, including cargo ships, cruise liners, fishing boats, and offshore platforms. Diesel fuel's high energy density, stability, and availability make it a preferred choice for marine applications, offering efficient and reliable performance over long distances and in demanding marine environments.
Asia Pacific commanded the largest market share during the extrapolated period. The region contains a large and growing population, along with increasing urbanization. It enhances the need for both personal and commercial transportation. Thereby, the region's transportation industry is growing, and diesel fuel is widely used in automobiles, trucks, buses, and motorbikes, which is contributing to the market's expansion. Moreover, the industrial, construction, mining, and agricultural sectors in Asia-Pacific are diversified. Diesel fuel is a major source of power for generators, machinery, and other equipment in these industries, driving market growth.
North America is expected to witness profitable growth over the projection period due to the growing usage of modern technologies and the presence of major players in this region. Diesel fuel is the primary fuel source for heavy-duty vehicles, which play a significant part in North American freight transportation. Moreover, the demand for diesel fuel is rising in developing nations due to increased urbanisation and industrialization. As these economies expand, the need for diesel fuel in the region is strengthened by an increase in transportation, power generation, and building activities.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in the Diesel Fuel Market include Denso, MAHLE, Bosch, Fredenberg, Universe Filter, YBM, Baowang, Phoenix, ALCO Filters, TOYOTA BOSHOKU, Chevron Corporation, Shell Plc, Reliance Industries Ltd, BP plc, ALCO Filters, SK Energy Co. Ltd., Universe Filter, Petrobras, Indian Oil Corporation and TotalEnergies.
In November 2023, Petrobras establishes a partnership for renewable diesel supply to SIM Distributor. The contract stipulates that Petrobras will deliver the fuel to SIM in Araucaria (PR), where the Presidente Vargas Refinery (Repar), which produces Diesel R, is located.
In October 2023, Petrobras partners with mining firm Vale to accelerate development of low-carbon solutions in Brazil. The partnership is for a two-year period and will assess joint decarbonisation opportunities, including the development of sustainable fuels-such as hydrogen, green methanol, biobunkers, green ammonia and renewable diesel-and CO2 capture and storage technologies.