市场调查报告书
商品编码
1476367
2030 年贵金属市场预测:按产品、应用、最终用户和地区分類的全球分析Precious Metal Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Product, Application, End User and By Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC的数据,2023年全球贵金属市场规模将达到2,635亿美元,预计2030年将达到4,879亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为9.2%。
贵金属市场透过多种管道运作,包括商品交易所、商店市场和实体裸金属交易商。贵金属需求受到经济稳定性、地缘政治紧张局势、通货膨胀和货币波动等多种因素的影响。投资者经常转向贵金属来对冲通货膨胀和经济不确定性,因为它们被视为价值储存手段。此外,贵金属因其稀有性、耐用性和工业用途而具有内在价值。
根据美国地质调查局的数据,截至2022年12月,墨西哥生产了6,300吨白银,其次是秘鲁,生产了3,100吨。
工业领域持续成长
工业扩张将推动对金、银和铂等贵金属的需求增加,因为它们对于电子、汽车製造和可再生能源技术等各种工业应用至关重要。随着工业的蓬勃发展,对这些金属的需求也随之增加,市场需求保持稳定并经常增加。此外,工业成长预示着经济繁荣,这增强了投资者对贵金属作为避险资产的信心,往往会进一步推高贵金属价格。
货币波动
货币波动会造成不确定性和波动性,进而影响贵金属市场。例如,如果美国相对于其他货币升值,以美元计价的黄金价格往往会下跌,因为它对其他货币持有来说变得更昂贵。另一方面,如果美元贬值,金价可能会上涨,因为持有其他货币的投资者会发现黄金相对便宜。这种波动可能会阻止寻求稳定的投资者投资贵金属市场。此外,货币波动也会影响贵金属的生产和分销成本,进一步影响市场动态。
通货膨胀和通货紧缩的预期
当投资者预期通膨时,他们会寻求黄金、白银和铂金等贵金属来对冲法定货币价值下跌的风险。这些金属被认为是价值储存手段,可以在货币贬值期间保存财富。相反,在货币价值上涨和价格下跌的通货紧缩时期,投资者可能会因其稳定性而转向贵金属作为避险资产。因此,通货膨胀和通货紧缩预期的变化可能会推动对贵金属的需求并影响其价格。
地缘政治风险
虽然地缘政治紧张局势历来推动了对黄金和白银等避险资产的需求,但它们也造成了限制市场趋势的不确定性。衝突、贸易战和政治动盪等地缘政治紧张局势升级可能会导致对贵金属的需求增加,因为投资者寻求对冲波动性和保值财富。但同样的紧张局势也可能导致经济混乱,影响对白银和铂金等金属的工业需求。然而,地缘政治事件会影响货币价值和利率,进而影响贵金属价格。
最初,由于投资者寻求躲避股市波动和经济不不确定性的避难所,疫情引发了对黄金和白银等避险资产的需求激增。结果,随着人们对这场流行病的经济影响及其扰乱全球供应链的可能性的担忧日益加剧,贵金属价格飙升。然而,随着世界各国政府实施经济奖励策略以及央行降低利率以缓衝危机的经济影响,贵金属价值出现波动。然而,大流行造成的采矿作业中断和物流挑战加剧了市场波动。
预计珠宝饰品业将在预测期内成为最大的行业
预计在预测期内,珠宝饰品业将成为最大的行业。这是因为这些金属的内在价值和美学吸引力使它们成为製作装饰物品的材料而受到追捧。珠宝饰品作为跨文化的价值储存手段和财富象征,进一步增强了其需求。此外,创新设计和不断变化的消费者偏好透过引入新的趋势和风格不断推动市场成长。珠宝饰品市场的全球性确保了对贵金属的稳定和多样化的需求,有助于市场稳定。
化学品领域预估在预测期内复合年增长率最高
预计化学品领域在预测期内的复合年增长率最高。化学品对于透过浸出和溶剂萃取等技术从矿石和电子废弃物中提取贵金属至关重要。在提炼中,化学品用于将贵金属精製至高纯度并符合行业标准。此外,化学品透过为合金化、电镀和表面处理製程提供解决方案,在珠宝饰品和电子元件等贵金属产品的製造中发挥着至关重要的作用。化学技术的进步有助于提高效率、减少对环境的影响并寻找贵金属的新用途,从而刺激市场成长和多元化。
在估计期间,亚太地区占据最大的市场占有率。印度和中国等国家对黄金和其他贵金属的文化亲和性历来很强,并推动了持续的需求。该地区的经济成长推动了中产阶级的不断壮大,可支配收入不断增加,进一步鼓励了对贵金属的投资,将其作为保值手段和通膨对冲工具。此外,该地区作为製造地(尤其是电子产品和珠宝饰品中心)的地位有助于对金、银和铂等金属的持续需求。亚太地区的强劲需求对全球价格产生了连锁反应,放大了市场动态并吸引了投资者的关注,从而增加了全球贵金属的流动性和市场深度。
预计亚太地区在估计期间将保持获利成长。亚太地区的政府监管透过提供确保透明度、稳定性和投资者保护的框架,在加强贵金属市场方面发挥着至关重要的作用。这些法规涵盖各个方面,例如经销商许可要求、纯度和真实性检验标准以及打击全部区域非法贸易行为的措施。透过执行严格的监管,世界各国政府正在建立投资者的信任和信心,并增加参与企业数量。此外,旨在遏制假冒和走私的地区性法规加强了贵金属市场的完整性,使其成为更安全、更具吸引力的投资工具。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Precious Metal Market is accounted for $263.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $487.9 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 9.2% during the forecast period. It operates through various channels including commodity exchanges, over-the-counter markets, and physical bullion dealers. The demand for precious metals is influenced by various factors such as economic stability, geopolitical tensions, inflation, and currency fluctuations. Investors often turn to precious metals as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, as they are perceived as stores of value. Additionally, precious metals have intrinsic value due to their rarity, durability, and industrial applications.
According to the United States Geological Survey, Mexico's silver production was 6,300 metric tons, followed by Peru at 3,100 metric tons as of December 2022.
Consistent growth of the industrial sector
Industrial expansion drives increased demand for precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum due to their indispensable usage in various industrial applications, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, and renewable energy technologies. As industries flourish, so does the need for these metals, creating a steady and often growing market demand. Moreover, industrial growth signals economic prosperity, which tends to bolster investor confidence in precious metals as safe-haven assets, further driving up their prices.
Currency fluctuations
Currency fluctuations impact the precious metal market by creating uncertainty and volatility. For instance, if the value of the US dollar strengthens against other currencies, the price of gold, which is denominated in dollars, tends to decrease as it becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, gold prices may rise as it becomes relatively cheaper for investors holding other currencies. These fluctuations can deter investors from committing to the precious metal market, as they seek stability in their investments. Moreover, currency fluctuations also influence the cost of production and distribution of precious metals, further impacting their market dynamics.
Inflation and deflation expectations
When investors anticipate inflation, they seek to hedge against the diminishing value of fiat currency by turning to precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum, which have historically retained their worth over time. These metals are seen as stores of value that can preserve wealth during periods of currency devaluation. Conversely, during deflationary periods, where the value of currency rises and prices fall, investors may still turn to precious metals as a safe haven due to their perceived stability. Thus, fluctuations in inflation and deflation expectations can drive demand for precious metals, influencing their prices.
Geopolitical risks
While geopolitical tensions historically drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, they also introduce uncertainties that can constrain market movements. Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts, trade wars, or political instability, can trigger increased demand for precious metals as investors seek to hedge against volatility and preserve wealth. However, the same tensions can also lead to economic disruptions, affecting industrial demand for metals like silver and platinum. However, geopolitical events may impact currency values and interest rates, which in turn influence precious metal prices.
Initially, the pandemic sparked a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, as investors sought refuge from volatile stock markets and economic uncertainty. This led to a rapid increase in precious metal prices, driven by heightened concerns over the pandemic's economic fallout and its potential to disrupt global supply chains. However, as governments worldwide implemented stimulus measures and central banks slashed interest rates to mitigate the crisis's economic impact, the value of precious metals experienced fluctuations. However, pandemic-induced disruptions in mining operations and logistical challenges further contributed to market volatility.
The Jewelry segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
Jewelry segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period as the intrinsic value and aesthetic appeal of these metals make them sought-after materials for crafting adornments. Jewelry acts as a store of value and a symbol of wealth across cultures, further bolstering demand. Additionally, innovative designs and evolving consumer preferences continually spur market growth by introducing new trends and styles. The global nature of the jewelry market ensures a steady and diverse demand for precious metals, contributing to market stability.
The Chemicals segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Chemicals segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Chemicals are essential in the extraction of precious metals from ores and electronic waste through techniques like leaching and solvent extraction. In refining, chemicals are used to purify precious metals to high levels of purity, meeting industry standards. Additionally, chemicals are crucial in fabricating precious metal products, such as jewelry and electronic components, by providing solutions for alloying, plating, and surface treatment processes. Advancements in chemical technologies contribute to improving efficiency, reducing environmental impacts, and discovering new applications for precious metals, thereby stimulating market growth and diversification.
Asia Pacific region commanded the largest market share over the extrapolated period. The cultural affinity towards gold and other precious metals in countries like India and China has historically been strong, driving consistent demand. Economic growth in the region has fueled a burgeoning middle class with increased disposable income, further boosting investment in precious metals as a store of value and hedge against inflation. Moreover, the region's role as a manufacturing hub, particularly in electronics and jewelry, contributes to sustained demand for metals like gold, silver, and platinum. This robust demand from the Asia Pacific region has a ripple effect on global prices, amplifying market dynamics and attracting greater investor attention, thus enhancing liquidity and market depth for precious metals worldwide.
Asia Pacific region is projected to hold profitable growth during the estimated period. Government regulations in the Asia Pacific region are playing a pivotal role in enhancing the precious metal market by providing a framework that ensures transparency, stability, and investor protection. These regulations encompass various aspects such as licensing requirements for dealers, standards for purity and authenticity verification, and measures to combat illegal trading activities across the region. By enforcing stringent regulations, governments are fostering trust and confidence among investors, thereby attracting more participants to the market. Moreover, regulations in the region aimed at curbing counterfeiting and smuggling bolster the integrity of the precious metal market, making it a safer and more attractive investment avenue.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Precious Metal market include Anglo American Platinum Limited, AngloGold Ashanti Limited, Barrick Gold, Freeport-McMoRan, Gold Fields Limited, Impala Platinum Holdings Limited, Kinross Gold Corporation, Newcrest Mining Limited, Newmont Corporation and Randgold & Exploration Company Limited.
In July 2023, Barrick Gold disclosed the extension of the mine life for its Tongon gold project in Cote d'Ivoire. This decision comes as a result of the ongoing positive outcomes from gold exploration activities within the Nielle mining permit area.
In July 2023, K92 Mining Inc. announced the resumption of underground mining operations at the Kainantu Gold Mine in Papua New Guinea. The restart was conducted by a comprehensive restart plan prioritizing safety, following a tragic incident involving an underground vehicle. Notably, the impact on surface activities has been minimal, and surface stockpiles have undergone processing in the designated plant.
In June 2023, AnglogoldAshanti introduced a pioneering renewable energy initiative at the Tropicana Gold Mine, signifying a notable achievement in its commitment to carbon emissions reduction. In collaboration with Pacific Energy, AngloGold Ashanti Australia Ltd, is undertaking the construction and operation of an extensive 62MW solar and wind production capacity at the mine. This partnership aims to integrate renewable energy sources into the mine's power supply infrastructure, thereby reducing reliance on gas consumption.