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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1494831
2030 年光伏 (PV) 市场预测:按类型、安装、电网类型、技术、应用和地区进行的全球分析Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Analysis By Type (Multi-Silicon and Mono-Silicon), Installation (Ground Mounted, Rooftop and Other Installations), Grid Type, Technology, Application and By Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC的数据,2024年全球光伏(PV)市场规模为2,344亿美元,预计2030年将达到8,941亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为25.0%。
光伏(PV)技术利用半导体材料将阳光直接转化为电能。当暴露在阳光下时,这些材料会透过光伏效应产生电流。太阳能发电系统由含有大量太阳能电池的太阳能电池板组成,安装在屋顶、地面或整合到建筑材料中。太阳能是一种清洁的可再生能源来源,可以减少对石化燃料的依赖并减少温室气体排放。
根据《世界能源展望》,全球仍有超过 10 亿人生活在没有电力的情况下。根据国际能源总署(IEA)最新估计,2023年能源投资将约为2.8兆美元。其中超过 1.7 兆美元用于清洁能源。
扩大太阳能发电投资
太阳能发电投资的增加是光伏(PV)市场的主要驱动因素。政府和私人公司正在向太阳能发电工程投入大量资金,以利用其环境效益和成本效益。这些投资是由世界推动可再生能源应对气候变迁、减少碳排放和实现能源独立所推动的。财政激励、补贴和优惠政策进一步支持太阳能技术的采用。此外,技术进步和规模经济显着降低了太阳能发电系统的成本,使其对投资者俱有吸引力并加速市场成长。
转换效率低
光伏(PV)电池的转换效率是衡量其将阳光转化为电能的效率的指标,对于光伏市场来说是一个极其重要的因素。儘管技术不断进步,但商业太阳能电池的平均转换率仅为其接收到的太阳能的 15-20% 左右。这种相对较低的转换效率限制了整体能源输出,并且需要更大的设备来满足能源需求。材料品质、环境条件和技术固有的物理限制等因素导致了这种效率限制。
政府优惠政策及即将推出的计划
有利的政府政策和即将推出的计划为光伏(PV)市场创造了巨大的机会。许多政府推出了税额扣抵、补贴和上网电价补贴等奖励,以鼓励太阳能的采用。旨在减少碳排放和推广再生能源来源的政策正在鼓励对太阳能发电工程的投资。此外,能源独立的推动和太阳能技术成本的降低使得太阳能成为新能源计划的有吸引力的选择。即将推出的大型太阳能发电设施以及将太阳能引入住宅和商业建筑进一步凸显了该市场的成长潜力。
大型陆域供电
核能发电厂和燃煤电厂等大型陆上电源对光伏(PV)市场构成了重大竞争威胁。这些传统能源来源通常受益于成熟的基础设施、稳定的能源输出,在某些情况下,由于规模经济而每兆瓦时的成本较低。提供基本负载电力且不存在太阳能所面临的间歇性问题的能力可能使其对电网和政策制定者俱有吸引力。此外,对石化燃料和核能的补贴和监管支持可能会使太阳能技术的发展和普及更加复杂。
儘管COVID-19的爆发对供应链产生了重大影响,但对市场成长的影响可以忽略不计。太阳能发电成本和相关技术的下降是推动全球太阳能市场的主要动力。原因包括规模经济、材料效率提高和製造优化。然而,风能和生质能源等其他绿色技术的市场开拓等问题预计将在整个预期期间限制市场扩张。
预计地面安装部分在预测期内将是最大的
由于公共产业规模计划数量的增加、太阳能目标的增加以及太阳能安装成本的下降,地面安装部分预计将出现良好的成长。世界各地正在规划大型太阳能发电工程,以实现能源来源多样化并减少对石化燃料发电的依赖。因此,在上述背景下,大型太阳能发电工程的安装量正在增加,地面光电发电预计将成为预测期内的主导部分。
住宅领域预计在预测期内复合年增长率最高
由于初始投资成本降低和太阳能组件效率提高,住宅领域预计在预测期内复合年增长率最快,并有望取得重大发展。然而,在联邦激励措施结束后,安装量预计将下降,尤其是住宅领域的安装量。在预测期内,随着太阳能发电系统因用于发电和低成本住宅供暖而受到欢迎,市场预计将扩大。
预计亚太地区在预测期内将占据最大的市场占有率。该领域装置容量最高的主要市场是新兴国家。在过去的几年里,太阳能产业爆炸式增长,速度比该地区任何其他国家都要快。 JNNSM 旨在透过为普及太阳能发电创造有利的政治环境,将印度定位为太阳能发电的全球领导者。计划中的太阳能发电工程、有利的政府政策以及光伏组件和相关系统价格下降等因素预计将在预测期内推动该地区的太阳能光伏市场。
预计北美在预测期内的复合年增长率最高。北美政府正在全国各地推出众多太阳能光伏、太阳热能发电和 CSP计划。其中之一是位于索诺拉州利伯塔德港的 46.8MW 太阳能发电设施。因此,预计在预测期内,国内太阳能发电系统的需求将会增加。此外,由于满足可再生能源需求的压力加大,预计公共产业部门的产能将大幅增加。此外,由于屋顶太阳能的具体法规和奖励,预计住宅安装量将在预测期内增加。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market is accounted for $234.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $894.1 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 25.0% during the forecast period. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology converts sunlight directly into electricity using semiconductor materials. When exposed to sunlight, these materials generate an electric current through the photovoltaic effect. Solar PV systems are composed of solar panels, which contain many solar cells, and are often installed on rooftops, ground-mounted arrays, or integrated into building materials. They offer a clean, renewable energy source, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.
According to World Energy Outlook, more than 1 billion people worldwide are still living without electricity. According to recent estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), around USD 2.8 trillion has been invested in energy in 2023. More than USD 1.7 trillion have been spent on clean energy.
Growing investments in solar power resources
The increasing investments in solar power resources are a key driver in the solar photovoltaic (PV) market. Governments and private entities are channeling substantial funds into solar energy projects to capitalize on their environmental benefits and cost-effectiveness. These investments are motivated by the global push for renewable energy to combat climate change, reduce carbon emissions, and achieve energy independence. Financial incentives, subsidies, and favorable policies further encourage the adoption of solar PV technology. Additionally, technological advancements and economies of scale have significantly lowered the costs of solar PV systems, making them more attractive to investors and accelerating market growth.
Low conversion efficiencies
The conversion efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, which measures how effectively sunlight is converted into electricity, is a critical factor in the PV market. Despite technological advancements, average commercial PV cells convert only about 15-20% of the solar energy they receive. This relatively low efficiency limits the overall energy output and necessitates larger installations to meet energy demands. Factors such as material quality, environmental conditions, and inherent physical limitations of the technology contribute to this efficiency restraint.
Favourable government policies and upcoming projects
Favorable government policies and upcoming projects present significant opportunities in the solar photovoltaic (PV) market. Many governments are implementing incentives such as tax credits, subsidies, and feed-in tariffs to promote solar energy adoption. Policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy sources are driving investments in solar PV projects. Additionally, the push for energy independence and the decreasing costs of solar technology are making solar PV an attractive option for new energy projects. Upcoming large-scale solar installations and the integration of solar PV in residential and commercial buildings further underscore the growth potential in this market.
Large land based power source
Large land-based power sources, such as nuclear and coal plants, pose significant competitive threat to the solar photovoltaic (PV) market. These traditional energy sources often benefit from established infrastructure, consistent energy output, and, in some cases, lower costs per megawatt-hour due to economies of scale. Their ability to provide baseload power without the intermittency issues faced by solar PV can make them more attractive to energy grids and policymakers. Additionally, subsidies and regulatory support for fossil fuels and nuclear energy can further challenge the growth and adoption of solar PV technologies.
The COVID-19 epidemic significantly impacted the supply chain and had a very small influence on market growth. The lowering cost of solar PV and related technologies is the main force propelling the global solar PV market. Economies of scale, increased material efficiency, and manufacturing optimization can all be credited with the drop. However, throughout the anticipated period, issues including the development of other green technologies like wind and bio energy are anticipated to restrain market expansion.
The ground-mounted segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Ground-mounted segment is estimated to have a lucrative growth, due to increase in utility-scale projects, solar energy targets, and falling solar PV installation costs. Large-scale solar PV projects are being planned by nations all over the world in an effort to diversify their energy sources and lessen their dependency on fossil fuel-based power generation. The increasing installation of large-scale utility solar PV projects is therefore anticipated to make ground-mounted solar PV a dominant segment over the projection period as a result of the considerations mentioned above.
The residential segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The residential segment is anticipated to witness the fastest CAGR growth during the forecast period, due to lower initial investment costs and increased solar PV module efficiency, the residential sector is anticipated to experience significant development. However, a decline in installations, notably from the residential segment, is anticipated after the expiration of federal incentives. Over the course of the forecast period, the market's expansion is anticipated to be anticipated by the rising popularity of photovoltaic systems due to their use in power generation and low-cost residential building heating.
Asia Pacific is projected to hold the largest market share during the forecast period. The major markets in the sector with the greatest installed capacities are developing countries. Over the past few years, the solar photovoltaic industry has exploded more quickly than that of any other nation in the region. By establishing the political circumstances for its widespread deployment, JNNSM aims to position India as a global lead in solar energy. During the forecast period, factors including planned solar PV projects, favourable governmental policies, and falling prices for solar PV modules and related systems are anticipated to propel the solar PV market in the area.
North America is projected to have the highest CAGR over the forecast period. The government of North America has set up numerous solar, photovoltaic, as well as CSP projects all around the nation. One of these is a 46.8 MW-capacity photovoltaic facility at Puerto Libertad, Sonora. As a result, during the course of the projection period, the requirement for photovoltaic systems in the nation is anticipated to rise. In addition, the utility sector is anticipated to add significant capacity as a result of mounting pressure to achieve renewable energy requirements. Residential installations are also expected to increase over the projection period as a result of regulations and incentives tailored specifically to solar rooftop PV.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Solar Photovoltaic (PV) market include Acciona SA, BrightSource Energy Inc., Canadian Solar Inc., First Solar Inc., Hanwha Q Cells Co. Ltd., JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd., JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd., LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd., Nextera Energy Sources LLC, Risen Energy, Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Sembcorp Energy India Ltd, Sharp Corporation, SunPower Corporation, Suntech Power Holding Co. Ltd., Tata Power Solar Systems Ltd. and Trina Solar Ltd.
In May 2024, Canadian Solar Inc. a global developer and owner of solar and energy storage assets, has announced the successful securing of a landmark multi-currency revolving credit facility valued at up to €1.3 billion. The agreement, signed by Recurrent Energy and ten participating financial institutions, aims to fund the construction of renewable energy projects across several European countries.
In April 2024, Indian Bank has entered into a strategic partnership with Tata Power Solar Systems Ltd. (TPSSL) to boost solar energy adoption by providing financial support to residential consumers for installations. The collaboration aims to provide financial support under the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana scheme for installations up to 3 KW, and from 3-10 KW under the regular scheme, the public sector lender said in a statement.