市场调查报告书
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1530765
到 2030 年小型水力市场预测:按类型、计划类型、组成部分、容量、最终用户和地区分類的全球洞察Small Hydropower Market Forecasts to 2030 - Global Insights By Type, Project Type, Component, Capacity, End User and Geography |
根据Stratistics MRC预测,2024年全球小型水力市场规模将达23亿美元,预计2030年将达到30亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为4.3%。
小型水力是指容量通常为 10 兆瓦或以下的水力发电厂。这些系统利用流经河流、溪流和运河的水的能量来发电。小型水力用于为当地社区、农村电气化和离网应用提供能源。小型水力是石化燃料的永续,对环境的影响比大型水坝小。小型水力有助于世界许多地区的能源安全、减少碳排放并支持当地经济发展。
根据国际能源总署 (IEA) 预测,2021 年至 2030 年间,全球水力发电装置容量预计将成长 17%,即 230GW。
对清洁能源的需求不断增长
全球对减少碳排放和转向可再生能源的兴趣日益浓厚,是小型水力市场的主要驱动力。随着各国寻求实现气候变迁目标并提高能源安全,小型水力提供了可靠、低影响和绿能。它提供基本负载电力,并且可以与其他可再生能源集成,使其对并联型和离网应用都具有吸引力。不断增长的电力需求,特别是在发展中地区,进一步推动了小型水力的采用,将其作为农村电气化和当地发电的永续解决方案。
投资成本高
小型水力发电工程的高昂初始投资成本是市场成长的主要阻碍因素。场地评估、土木工程、设备和电网连接可能非常昂贵,特别是对于小容量发电而言。较长的投资回收期以及水资源供应和监管的不确定性可能会阻碍一些投资者。发展中地区资金筹措管道有限也阻碍了计划开发。此外,环境影响评估和缓解措施的成本增加了整体成本。与需要较低初始投资的其他可再生能源专案相比,这种财务障碍可能会使小型水力发电工程缺乏竞争力。
政府支持和奖励
许多国家已经实施了可再生能源目标、上网电价补贴、税收优惠以及专门针对小型水力的简化审核流程。赠款、低利率贷款和官民合作关係可以帮助克服初始成本障碍。促进分散式发电和农村电气化的政策也有利于小型水力的引进。随着各国政府寻求能源结构多元化和振兴当地经济,对开拓小型水力市场的支持不断扩大,为市场成长创造了有利条件,预计该产业的投资需求将会增加。
与其他自然能源的竞争
其他可再生能源技术(尤其是太阳能和风能)的快速成长和成本下降对小型水力市场构成了威胁。这些替代技术通常具有更短的施工时间、更低的环境影响以及更低的电力成本。在某些地区,它可能比水力发电更容易获得或更适合。随着能源储存技术的进步,间歇性再生能源作为基本负载电力将变得更具竞争力。此外,大众的看法和环境问题更青睐风能和太阳能而不是水力发电。这种竞争可能会限制某些市场对小型水力的投资和政策支持。
由于供应链问题、劳动力限制和经济不确定性,COVID-19 大流行最初扰乱了小型水力发电工程。但这场危机也凸显了可靠的本地能源来源的重要性。作为经济復苏计画的一部分,许多政府加大了对包括小型水力水力发电在内的可再生能源计划的支持,以刺激绿色成长并加强能源安全。从长远来看,重新关注永续基础设施可以加速小型水力的发展。
预计1-10MW部分将是预测期内最大的部分
由于发电量和环境影响之间的最佳平衡,1-10兆瓦装置容量预计将主导小型水力市场。此尺寸范围适用于多种应用,从为小型社区供电到为区域电网供电。小型水力比大型水力发电发电工程更灵活、更容易部署,同时与小型水力发电专案相比具有规模经济。此外,1-10 MW 领域对开发商和投资者也很有吸引力,因为它符合许多国家的小型水力定义和奖励结构。
预计偏远社区部分在预测期内复合年增长率最高
在小型水力水力发电市场中,偏远社区部门预计将呈现最快的成长速度。这是在加大力度为农村和偏远地区(特别是开发中国家)提供电力的背景下实现的。小型水力提供了可靠的离网解决方案,可以单独运作或作为迷你电网的一部分运作。它可以促进当地经济发展,提高生活质量,减少对柴油发电机的依赖。随着政府优先考虑农村电气化和永续发展目标,偏远社区小型水力发电工程的投资预计将大幅加速。
在中国、印度和东南亚国家等国家快速工业化、都市化以及不断增长的电力需求的推动下,亚太地区预计将占据小型水力市场的最大份额。该地区水能资源丰富,多国政府积极推动可再生能源开发。特别是中国,水力发电装置容量较低,但仍继续在该领域进行大量投资。农村电气化工作、支援政策以及偏远地区对永续能源解决方案的需求正在进一步增强该地区的市场优势。
预计亚太地区小型水力市场的成长率也最高。这是由雄心勃勃的可再生能源目标、不断增加的能源需求和扩大农村地区的电力供应所推动的。印度、印尼和越南等国正在加紧开发小型水力,以实现能源结构多元化并减少对石化燃料的依赖。现有设施的现代化和新计画开拓的投资开放,加上技术进步和成本降低,预计将推动该地区市场的快速扩张。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Small Hydropower Market is accounted for $2.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $3.0 billion by 2030 growing at a CAGR of 4.3% during the forecast period. Small hydropowers are hydroelectric power plants with a capacity typically below 10 megawatts. These systems harness the energy of flowing water in rivers, streams, or canals to generate electricity. Small hydropower plants are used to provide energy for local communities, rural electrification, and off-grid applications. They offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, with minimal environmental impact compared to large-scale dams. Small hydropower contributes to energy security, reduces carbon emissions, and supports local economic development in many regions worldwide.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydropower capacity is set to increase by 17%, or 230 GW, between 2021 and 2030.
Growing demand for clean energy
The increasing global focus on reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources is a major driver for the small hydropower market. As countries aim to meet climate goals and improve energy security, small hydropower offers a reliable, low-impact source of clean electricity. Its ability to provide baseload power and integrate with other renewables makes it attractive for both grid-connected and off-grid applications. Rising electricity demand, especially in developing regions, further boosts adoption of small hydropower as a sustainable solution for rural electrification and localized power generation.
High investment costs
The high upfront capital costs associated with small hydropower projects pose a significant restraint on market growth. Site assessment, civil works, equipment, and grid connection can be expensive, especially for smaller capacity installations. Long payback periods and uncertainties around water availability and regulations may deter some investors. Limited access to financing in developing regions can also hinder project development. Additionally, the costs of environmental impact assessments and mitigation measures add to overall expenses. These financial barriers can make small hydropower projects less competitive compared to other renewable options with lower initial investments.
Government support and incentives
Many countries are implementing renewable energy targets, feed-in tariffs, tax benefits, and streamlined permitting processes specifically for small hydropower. Grants, low-interest loans, and public-private partnerships can help overcome initial cost barriers. Policies promoting distributed generation and rural electrification also favor small hydropower deployments. As governments seek to diversify energy mixes and boost local economies, increased support for small hydropower development is likely, creating favorable conditions for market growth and attracting more investment to the sector.
Competition from other renewables
The rapid growth and declining costs of other renewable energy technologies, particularly solar and wind power, pose a threat to the small hydropower market. These alternatives often have shorter construction times, lower environmental impacts, and lower levelized costs of electricity. In some regions, they may be more readily available or suitable than hydropower resources. As energy storage technologies improve, intermittent renewables become more competitive for baseload power. Additionally, public perception and environmental concerns favor wind and solar over hydropower. This competition could potentially limit investment and policy support for small hydropower in certain markets.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted small hydropower projects due to supply chain issues, workforce restrictions, and economic uncertainty. However, the crisis also highlighted the importance of reliable, local energy sources. As part of economic recovery plans, many governments increased support for renewable energy projects, including small hydropower, to stimulate green growth and enhance energy security. This renewed focus on sustainable infrastructure may accelerate small hydropower development in the long term.
The 1-10 MW segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The 1-10 MW capacity segment is projected to dominate the small hydropower market due to its optimal balance of power output and environmental impact. This size range is suitable for a wide variety of applications, from powering small communities to feeding into regional grids. It offers economies of scale compared to smaller installations while still being more flexible and easier to implement than larger hydropower projects. The 1-10 MW segment also aligns well with many countries' definitions and incentive structures for small hydropower, making it attractive for developers and investors.
The remote communities segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The remote communities segment is anticipated to grow at the fastest rate in the small hydropower market. This is driven by increasing efforts to provide electricity access in rural and isolated areas, particularly in developing countries. Small hydropower offers a reliable, off-grid solution that can operate independently or as part of mini-grids. It enables local economic development, improves quality of life, and reduces reliance on diesel generators. As governments prioritize rural electrification and sustainable development goals, investment in small hydropower projects for remote communities is expected to accelerate significantly.
Asia Pacific is poised to hold the largest share of the small hydropower market, driven by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and increasing electricity demand in countries like China, India, and Southeast Asian nations. The region has abundant hydropower resources, and many governments are actively promoting renewable energy development. China, in particular, has a small hydropower capacity and continues to invest heavily in the sector. Rural electrification initiatives, supportive policies, and the need for sustainable energy solutions in remote areas further contribute to the region's market dominance.
Asia Pacific is also expected to experience the highest growth rate in the small hydropower market. This is fueled by ambitious renewable energy targets, increasing energy demand, and a focus on expanding electricity access in rural areas. Countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are ramping up small hydropower development to diversify their energy mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Growing investment in modernizing existing facilities and developing new projects, coupled with technological advancements and cost reductions, will drive rapid market expansion in the region.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Small Hydropower market include Andritz AG, Voith Group, GE Renewable Energy, Siemens AG, Toshiba Corporation, Power Machines, Wartsila Corporation, Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL), Gilbert Gilkes & Gordon Ltd., Canyon Hydro, Derwent Hydroelectric Power Ltd., IMPSA (Industrias Metalurgicas Pescarmona S.A.), Norcan Hydraulic Turbine Inc., Mavel a.s., Renetricity Inc., SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., Agder Energi, and Fortum Oyj.
In May 2024, Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has entered into a Technology Transfer Agreement (TTA) with Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) for 50 kW alkaline electrolyser systems for Hydrogen production. The well proven technology offered by BARC is indigenously developed and has high local material content.
In January 2024, Siemens has completed the acquisition of Heliox, a technology leader in DC fast charging solutions, serving eBus and eTruck fleets and passenger vehicles. Headquartered in the Netherlands, Heliox employs approximately 330 people. A first agreement between the two companies was signed in August 2023. The acquisition "complements Siemens' existing eMobility charging portfolio, adding products and solutions ranging from 40 kilowatts (kW) to megawatt charging solutions for depots and en-route charging.
In January 2024, GE Power India Limited said it received an order worth Rs 10.3 crore from state-owned NTPC. The order is for supply of spares and repair of high power inner casing module, GE Power India said in a BSE filing. The order is to be completed in 10.5 months, the company said.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.