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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1700041
2032 年超低硫燃料油市场预测:按来源、硫含量、黏度等级、合规策略、技术、应用、最终用户和地区进行的全球分析Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Source, Sulfur Content, Viscosity Grade, Compliance Strategy, Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,全球极低硫燃料油 (VLSFO) 市场预计在 2025 年达到 964.9 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 1,637.8 亿美元,预测期内的复合年增长率为 7.85%。
VLSFO(极低硫燃料油)是一种船用燃料,符合国际海事组织(IMO)的规定,该规定将燃料的硫含量限制在 0.5% 或更低。使用VLSFO取代传统的高硫燃料油(HSFO)有助于减少环境污染,尤其是硫氧化物(SOx)的排放。它是作为国际海事组织 2020 年减少船舶硫排放指令的一部分而推出的。此外,VLSFO 通常是各种炼油厂流体的混合物,这意味着它们的黏度和成分会根据来源而变化。
根据国际海事组织 (IMO) 的数据,全球大多数船舶正在从重质燃料油 (HFO) 过渡到极低硫燃料油 (VLSFO),以符合 IMO 2020 年将船用燃料含硫量限制在 0.5% 的规定。
国际海上贸易成长
国际航运是国际贸易的基础,占世界贸易量的近90%。对消费品、能源资源和原材料的需求不断增长,尤其是来自中国、印度和美国等经济体的需求,正在增加海上运输量和对 VLSFO 等船用燃料的需求。此外,电子商务和全球供应链的加速成长使得运输效率变得越来越重要,促使营运商使用像VLSFO这样经济合法的燃料。
价格波动和供应链中断
由于原油价格、精製能力和区域需求波动,极低硫燃料油(VLSFO)价格波动很大。由于 VLSFO 生产依赖于从原油中去除硫的精製工艺,精製停工、地缘政治衝突以及 COVID-19 疫情等全球危机都可能导致供不应求和价格上涨。此外,VLSFO 供应的地区差异可能导致某些市场价格上涨,迫使船舶营运商定期修改其燃料采购计画。
扩大对低硫燃料生产和炼油厂维修的投资
自国际海事组织 2020 年法规实施以来,世界各地的炼油厂都在大力投资更新其脱硫装置和加氢裂解程序,以增加低硫船用燃料的产量。为了满足海运业日益增长的需求,新加坡、鹿特丹、休士顿和富查伊拉等主要精製中心正在增加其 VLSFO 的储存和销售能力。此外,私人公司和国家石油公司正在研究尖端精製方法,以提高燃料稳定性和效率,确保稳定的供应和高品质。
未来排放法规和监管不确定性的增加
进一步收紧环境法规可能会限制包括 VLSFO 在内的石化燃料船用燃料的使用。作为国际海事组织新倡议的一部分,正在讨论对船用燃料征收碳排放税以及实施更严格的碳强度限制。如果监管机构对船用燃料征收碳课税或额外的排放目标,替代能源可能会变得更具吸引力,从而大大增加 VLSFO 的成本。此外,一些司法管辖区(例如欧盟)已针对航运业实施了排放交易系统(ETS),其他司法管辖区也可能跟进。
由于航运活动减少、国际贸易中断以及原油价格波动,极低硫燃料油 (VLSFO) 市场受到 COVID-19 疫情的严重影响。受航运停运和景气衰退影响,全球航运需求急剧下降,尤其是油轮、邮轮和货柜船等产业。这导致包括 VLSFO 在内的船用燃料使用量整体下降。 2020 年初原油价格暴跌缩小了 VLSFO 和 HSFO 之间的价差,使得洗涤器投资吸引力降低,并暂时稳定了 VLSFO 的需求。然而,VLSFO 市场的区域短缺和价格波动是由物流延迟、供应链限制和炼油厂营运不稳定造成的。
预计炼油部门将成为预测期内最大的部门
预计炼油厂部门将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率。炼油厂正在调整原油加工方法,改善脱硫设施,并增加对渣油升级技术的投资,以生产符合国际海事组织 2020 年规定的低硫船用燃料。为了满足对 VLSFO 日益增长的需求并保持盈利,一些拥有加氢裂解、焦化和脱硫能力的先进炼油厂具有优势。此外,原油供应灵活的炼油厂还可以使用加氢处理技术并混合低硫原料,以确保稳定供应符合国际海事组织规定的燃料。
预计预测期内 MGO(船用瓦斯油)部分将以最高的复合年增长率成长。
预计船用燃气油(MGO)领域将在预测期内实现最高增长率,因为它被广泛用作必须符合国际海事组织 2020 年硫含量规定的船舶的替代燃料。与 IFO 180 和 IFO 380 等传统残渣燃料相比,MGO 是一种含硫量明显较低的馏分燃料,对于希望避免安装昂贵的废气净化系统的船舶运营商来说,这是一种理想的选择。此外,MGO 还具有提高燃烧效率、降低维护成本和减少颗粒物排放等营运优势,符合海运领域日益严格的环境法规。
预计亚太地区将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率,这主要归因于高海运贸易量、广泛的炼油基础设施以及新加坡、中国和韩国等主要加油中心。作为世界上最大的加油港,新加坡对于 VLSFO 的供应至关重要,其享有盛誉的炼油厂和混合设施可确保稳定供应符合 IMO 2020 标准的燃料。中国也是一个主要参与企业,因为它正在透过炼油厂升级和政府激励措施增加国内 VLSFO 产量并减少对进口的依赖。此外,航运和物流业的蓬勃发展也推动了对低硫船用燃料的需求,这在日本和印度等大型经济体中尤其普遍。
预计预测期内中东和非洲的复合年增长率最高。沙乌地阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合大公国和科威特是该地区最大的原油生产国之一,它们正在大力投资现代化炼油厂,以生产符合 IMO 2020 标准的燃料。此外,加油中心的快速扩张,特别是在富查伊拉(阿拉伯联合大公国)、苏哈尔(阿曼)和德班(南非),增加了 VLSFO 的供应,使该地区成为国际航运航线的重要加油枢纽。由于政府努力实现精製工艺现代化、增加燃料出口并遵守国际排放标准,M&A VLSFO 市场正在蓬勃发展。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market is accounted for $96.49 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $163.78 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 7.85% during the forecast period. VLSFO, or very low sulfur fuel oil, is a marine fuel that conforms to the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) rules that restrict the amount of sulfur in fuel to no more than 0.5%. In lieu of conventional high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO), VLSFO helps reduce environmental pollution, especially sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions. It was introduced as part of the IMO 2020 mandate to reduce sulfur emissions from ships. Moreover, the viscosity and composition vary depending on the supplier because it is usually a blend of various refinery streams.
According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the majority of ships worldwide have transitioned from using heavy fuel oil (HFO) to very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) to comply with the IMO 2020 regulation, which limits the sulfur content in marine fuels to 0.5%.
Increase in international maritime trade
The foundation of international trade, accounting for almost 90% of global trade volumes, is international shipping. Marine traffic and the demand for marine fuels like VLSFO have increased due to the growing demand for consumer goods, energy resources, and raw materials, especially from economies like China, India, and the United States. Additionally, as e-commerce and global supply chains grow at an accelerated rate, shipping efficiency has become increasingly important, pushing operators to use economical and legally compliant fuels like VLSFO.
Price fluctuations and interruptions in the supply chain
The price of Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) is highly volatile due to fluctuations in crude oil prices, refining capacity, and regional demand variations. Refinery shutdowns, geopolitical conflicts, and global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic can all cause supply shortages and price spikes because VLSFO production relies on refining processes that remove sulfur from crude oil. Furthermore, a regional disparity in VLSFO availability may result in higher prices in particular markets, requiring ship operators to regularly modify their fuel procurement plans.
Growing investments in low-sulfur fuel production and refinery upgrades
Refineries all over the world have been making significant investments in modernizing desulfurization units and hydro cracking procedures in order to increase the production of low-sulfur marine fuels since the implementation of IMO 2020 regulations. To accommodate the increasing demands of the maritime sector, major refining hubs like Singapore, Rotterdam, Houston, and Fujairah are increasing their VLSFO storage and distribution capacities. Moreover, private refiners and national oil companies are investigating cutting-edge refining methods to improve fuel stability and efficiency, guaranteeing a steady supply and higher quality.
Increasing future emission limits and regulatory uncertainty
The use of fossil-based marine fuels, including VLSFO, may be restricted if environmental regulations are tightened further, even though IMO 2020 regulations required a global sulfur cap of 0.5%. Potential carbon taxes on marine fuels and more stringent carbon intensity regulations are being discussed as part of new IMO policies. Alternative energy sources may become more appealing if regulatory agencies impose carbon levies or additional emission reduction targets on bunker fuels, which would raise the cost of VLSFO considerably. Additionally, Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) have already been implemented for the shipping industry in some regions, such as the European Union (EU), and other regions may follow suit.
The market for Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly as a result of decreased maritime activity, disruptions in international trade, and volatile crude oil prices. The demand for shipping worldwide fell precipitously as a result of the lockdowns and economic downturns, especially in industries like oil tankers, cruise lines, and container shipping. This decreased the amount of bunker fuel used overall, including VLSFO. The early 2020 crude oil price collapse led to smaller price differences between VLSFO and HSFO, which reduced the appeal of scrubber investments and momentarily stabilized the demand for VLSFO. However, regional shortages and price volatility in the VLSFO market were brought on by logistical delays, supply chain limitations, and irregular refinery operations.
The Refinery segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Refinery segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. Refineries have adjusted their crude processing methods, improved their desulfurization facilities, and increased their investments in residue upgrading technologies in order to produce low-sulfur bunker fuels in compliance with IMO 2020 regulations. In order to meet the growing demand for VLSFO while retaining profitability, numerous sophisticated refineries possessing hydro cracking, coking, and desulfurization capabilities are at an advantage. Moreover, refineries equipped with flexible crude slates can also use hydro processing techniques or blend low-sulfur feedstocks to guarantee a consistent supply of fuels that comply with IMO regulations.
The MGO (Marine Gas Oil) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the MGO (Marine Gas Oil) segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by its extensive use as a substitute fuel for ships that must adhere to the IMO 2020 sulfur regulations. Compared to conventional residual fuels like IFO 180 and IFO 380, MGO is a distillate fuel with a substantially lower sulfur content, which makes it a desirable option for ship operators who want to avoid the expensive installation of exhaust gas cleaning systems. Furthermore, MGO provides operational benefits that are in line with the expanding environmental regulations in the maritime sector, such as improved combustion efficiency, lower maintenance costs, and decreased particulate emissions.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, primarily due to its high maritime trade volume, extensive refinery infrastructure, and major bunker hubs such as Singapore, China, and South Korea. With reputable refineries and blending facilities guaranteeing a consistent supply of IMO 2020-compliant fuels, Singapore, the largest bunkering port in the world, is essential to the supply of VLSFO. China has become a major player as well, increasing its domestic production of VLSFO through refinery upgrades and government incentives, which has decreased its dependency on imports. Moreover, the need for low-sulfur marine fuels is also fueled by the robust shipping and logistics sectors, which are especially prevalent in large economies like Japan and India.
Over the forecast period, the Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, some of the biggest producers of crude oil in the region, are making significant investments in modernizing refineries to create fuels that comply with IMO 2020. Furthermore, as bunker hubs expand quickly, especially in Fujairah (UAE), Sohar (Oman), and Durban (South Africa), VLSFO availability is increasing, making the area a crucial fueling stop for international shipping routes. The M&A VLSFO market is growing rapidly due to government initiatives to modernize refining processes, increase fuel exports, and adhere to international emission standards.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) Market include Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Exxon Mobil, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Sinopec Inc, TotalEnergies, Valero Energy, Phillips 66, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), Chevron, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Shell, Marathon Petroleum, Qatar Energy (QE), China Marine Bunker Co., Ltd. and Singapore Refining Company (SRC).
In February 2025, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) signed a strategic term contract with TotalEnergies Trading Asia Pte Ltd for the supply of Middle Eastern crude oil to BPCL. The contract, which is valid for one year from April 2025 to March 2026, will ensure a "steady and competitive" supply of crude oil to BPCL's refineries.
In December 2024, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has signed an agreement with NICDC Logistics Data Services Ltd. (NLDS) to integrate its APIs with Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP). This partnership is a significant step towards enhancing transparency, operational efficiency, and innovation in India's logistics sector.
In September 2024, Exxon Mobil Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation have signed a Project Framework Agreement for Mitsubishi Corporation's participation in ExxonMobil's facility in Baytown, Texas which is expected to produce virtually carbon-free hydrogen with approximately 98% of carbon dioxide (CO2) removed and low-carbon ammonia.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.