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市场调查报告书
商品编码
2021495
携带式城市核能解决方案市场预测至2034年—按核子反应炉类型、功率、部署模式、应用、最终用户和地区分類的全球分析Portable Urban Nuclear Solutions Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Reactor Type, Power Output, Deployment Mode, Application, End User, and By Geography |
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根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,预计到 2026 年,全球城市可携式核能解决方案市场规模将达到 5 亿美元,并在预测期内以 14.7% 的复合年增长率增长,到 2034 年将达到 15 亿美元。
城市可携式核能解决方案是指紧凑型、工厂预製反应器系统,专为都市区和郊区环境设计,无需传统大型核能发电厂所需的大片土地或客製化工程。这些系统可提供可靠的低碳电力、区域供热和工业製程热。其设计方案包括小型模组化反应器、微型反应器、可移动核能发电机组、快中子反应器系统、高温反应炉和熔盐反应器。透过利用被动安全系统、标准化工厂化生产和简化的操作流程,这些解决方案能够部署在靠近电力和供热需求中心的密集人口区域。
都市区对清洁能源安全的需求
都市区对清洁能源安全的需求正强劲推动可携式投资便携式核能解决方案。这些方案能够为人口稠密地区提供持续、不受天气影响的低碳电力,且避免了可再生能源固有的供应不稳定性。随着核能在深化脱碳进程中的作用日益受到全球净零排放政策框架的认可,在福岛核事故后停滞不前的小型核子反应炉研发项目正获得政治和监管支持,并逐渐恢復。美国能源局的先进核子反应炉示范项目、英国的小型模组化反应器(SMR)项目以及欧洲的多个先进核能倡议,其研发合约带来的收益正支持可携式核能技术研发公司业务永续营运,同时为其获得监管许可做好准备。
监管许可的复杂性和所需时间
可携式城市核能解决方案商业化的最大障碍在于其复杂的许可流程和长达数年的核准流程。这是因为包括美国美国核能管理委员会(NRC)、英国核能管理署(ONR)以及欧洲各国监管机构在内的核能安机构,缺乏专门针对小型模组化反应器设计的成熟许可框架,而小型模组化反应器的设计与传统的大型轻水反应器有着本质区别。新的燃料配置、被动安全系统设计以及工厂製造中的品质保证方法,都需要全新的监管技术审查程序,而这些程序的进展速度远低于开发商的商业化预期。此外,都市区的许可要求还增加了与当地监管机构协调的额外负担,这也超出了标准核能发电厂的位置流程。
部署到偏远和孤立的电网
将便携式核能解决方案部署到偏远社区和孤立电网,为可携式核能解决方案提供了一条切实可行的短期商业化路径。在柴油燃料供应物流、高昂的电力成本和电网扩建不切实际的情况下,安装小型核子反应炉成为极具经济吸引力的选择。阿拉斯加原住民社区、加拿大偏远矿区、太平洋岛国和北极研究基地是便携式核能早期部署市场,在这些地区,以目前的燃料成本和物流水平,可携式核能比现有的柴油发电更具经济优势。美国国防部及其盟国对前线作战基地的电力供应需求,促使政府资助开发小型可携式核子反应炉,目标是1-10兆瓦的军用微型核子反应炉。
对都市区位置的社会接受度与反对度
公众对都市区的接受度和位置是携带式在核能核能发电厂方面要求相对容易。都市区和郊区社区出于对辐射风险、废弃物管理以及与核能事故相关的担忧而产生的反对,造成了许可审批和政治阻力,可能阻碍携带式核能解决方案在人口稠密地区的部署,而这些地区恰恰是便携式核能解决方案能够最大程度保障能源安全和电网脱碳的最佳场所。重大核能事故后持续存在的负面公众情绪仍在影响政治格局,使都市区核能设施位置的授权和核准决策更加复杂。
新冠疫情导致供应链延误,政府在优先紧急应变情况期间参与度降低,从而扰乱了可携式核能解决方案的研发计划。疫情后,地缘政治动盪引发的石化燃料价格波动加剧了人们对能源安全的担忧,这显着增强了投资携带式核能的政策合理性,因为便携式核能是一种可靠、低碳且不易受燃料价格波动影响的能源来源。美国、英国和欧盟在疫情期间推出的清洁能源刺激投资方案中包含了对先进核能研发的资金支持,这有助于多家携带式核能技术研发公司保持商业开发项目的势头。
在预测期内,高温反应炉领域预计将占据最大的市场份额。
预计在预测期内,高温反应炉)将占据最大的市场份额。这主要归功于其高效能发电和高温製程热供应能力,出口温度高达700–950°C,适用于氢气製造、工业製程热和区域供热等应用。这将显着拓展目标能源服务市场,使其不再局限于仅供电的核子反应炉配置。 HTGR采用石墨慢化和氦气冷却设计,其被动安全特性以及燃料球固有的安全运作限制,使其在获得监管部门核准方面具有优势。来自中国高温气冷堆-PM商业示范装置和日本高温气冷堆研究计画的运作数据,正为加速国际监管核准提供必要资讯。
在预测期内,10 MW 以下的细分市场预计将呈现最高的复合年增长率。
在预测期内,10兆瓦以下微型反应器市场预计将呈现最高增长率,这主要得益于美国国防部「佩勒计画」(Project Pelle)微型反应器研发项目、部署到偏远社区的经济效益,以及矿工们在偏远矿区寻求柴油燃料替代方案的日益增长的需求。 1-10兆瓦范围内的微型反应器设计可以自行製造并透过卡车运输,从而显着降低现场施工的复杂性,并使其能够在大型核子反应炉系统无法到达的地区进行部署。包括Oklo公司、X-energy公司和Ultra Safe Nuclear公司在内的多家商业微型反应器开发商正在推进向美国美国核能管理委员会(NRC)提交的预申请审查流程,这为它们在不久的将来进行首次商业部署做好了监管准备。
在预测期内,北美预计将占据最大的市场份额。这主要归功于美国拥有最先进的小型模组化反应器(SMR)和微型反应器研发项目,美国能源局先进反应器示范项目(ARMP)的大量资金支持了商业开发商的技术成熟度,以及美国核管理委员会(NRC)的先进反应器许可工作建立了一个为全球监管树立先例的框架。加拿大核能安委员会的SMR许可准备项目以及多家加拿大电力公司所进行的SMR采购评估也进一步巩固了北美的市场领导地位。美国国防部微型反应器采购计画为推动携带式核能技术商业化的技术开发商提供了收入来源。
在预测期内,欧洲地区预计将呈现最高的复合年增长率。促成这一结果的因素包括:劳斯莱斯小型模组化反应器(SMR)在英国SMR项目框架下,正朝着完成总体设计评估的方向稳步迈进;石化燃料燃料供应中断后,欧洲能源安全需求推动了对核能投资的政治支持;以及多个东欧欧盟成员国启动了SMR部署可行性调查计画。波兰、捷克、罗马尼亚和荷兰正在积极评估SMR的部署,将其纳入国家能源安全和脱碳战略。欧盟委员会将核能归类为“过渡性永续活动”,这使得欧盟成员国能够利用绿色金融支持SMR计画开发。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Portable Urban Nuclear Solutions Market is accounted for $0.5 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $1.5 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 14.7% during the forecast period. Portable urban nuclear solutions refer to compact, factory-fabricated nuclear reactor systems designed for deployment in urban and peri-urban environments to provide reliable, low-carbon electricity, district heating, and industrial process heat without the large land footprint and bespoke engineering requirements of conventional utility-scale nuclear power plants. They encompass small modular reactors, microreactors, transportable nuclear power units, fast neutron reactor systems, high-temperature gas reactors, and molten salt reactor designs that utilize passive safety systems, standardized factory construction, and simplified operating procedures to enable deployment in populated areas with proximity to electricity and heat demand centers.
Urban Clean Energy Security Demand
Urban clean energy security demands are compelling government and utility investment in portable nuclear solutions that provide continuous, weather-independent low-carbon electricity to dense population centers without intermittency limitations of renewable alternatives. Growing recognition of nuclear energy's role in deep decarbonization by national net-zero policy frameworks is restoring political and regulatory support for compact reactor development programs that were dormant during post-Fukushima review periods. U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, UK Small Modular Reactor program, and multiple European advanced nuclear initiative investments are generating development contract revenues that are sustaining portable nuclear technology developer viability while advancing regulatory licensing readiness.
Regulatory Licensing Complexity and Duration
Regulatory licensing complexity and multi-year approval timelines represent the most significant commercialization barrier for portable urban nuclear solutions, as nuclear safety authorities including the U.S. NRC, UK ONR, and European national regulators lack established licensing frameworks specifically designed for compact modular reactor designs that differ fundamentally from reviewed large light-water reactor precedents. Novel fuel configurations, passive safety system designs, and factory fabrication quality assurance approaches require entirely new regulatory technical review programs that are progressing slowly relative to developer commercialization ambitions. Urban siting licensing requirements create additional local regulatory coordination burdens beyond standard nuclear plant siting reviews.
Remote and Islanded Grid Deployments
Remote community and islanded grid deployment opportunities represent an accessible near-term commercial pathway for portable nuclear solutions where diesel fuel supply logistics, high electricity costs, and grid extension impracticality create compelling economic cases for compact reactor installations. Alaska Native communities, Canadian remote mining operations, Pacific island nations, and Arctic research stations represent initial deployment markets where portable nuclear economics compare favorably to incumbent diesel generation at current fuel cost and logistics levels. Defense forward operating base power supply requirements from the U.S. Department of Defense and allied military organizations are generating funded development contracts for small transportable reactor designs targeting 1-10 MW military microreactor capability.
Public Acceptance and Urban Siting Opposition
Public acceptance challenges and urban siting opposition represent fundamental deployment barriers for portable nuclear solutions that distinguish them from conventional utility-scale nuclear plants sited in remote low-population areas where community engagement requirements are more manageable. Urban and suburban community opposition driven by radiation risk perception, waste management concerns, and nuclear accident association is creating permitting and political resistance that may prevent deployment in the densely populated areas where portable nuclear solutions offer the greatest energy security and grid decarbonization benefits. Sustained negative public sentiment following high-profile nuclear accidents continues to shape political conditions that complicate licensing approval for urban nuclear facility siting decisions.
COVID-19 disrupted portable nuclear solution development programs through supply chain delays and reduced government program engagement capacity during emergency response prioritization periods. Post-pandemic energy security concerns amplified by fossil fuel price volatility following geopolitical disruptions substantially strengthened the policy rationale for portable nuclear investment as a reliable, fuel-price-insensitive low-carbon energy source. Pandemic-era clean energy stimulus investment packages in the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union incorporated advanced nuclear development funding provisions that are sustaining commercial development program momentum across multiple portable nuclear technology developers.
The high-temperature gas reactors segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The high-temperature gas reactors segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, due to their ability to deliver both high-efficiency electricity generation and high-temperature process heat at outlet temperatures of 700-950 degrees Celsius suitable for hydrogen production, industrial process heat, and district heating applications that substantially expand the addressable energy service market beyond electricity-only reactor configurations. HTGR passive safety characteristics using graphite moderated helium-cooled designs with inherently safe fuel pebble temperature limits are generating regulatory acceptance advantages. China's HTR-PM commercial demonstration plant operation and Japan's HTTR research program are generating operational data that is accelerating international regulatory acceptance.
The below 10 MW segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the below 10 MW segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by U.S. Department of Defense Project Pele microreactor development program, remote community deployment economics, and growing interest from mining operators seeking diesel displacement at isolated extraction sites. Microreactor designs in the 1-10 MW range offer factory fabrication and truck transportability that dramatically reduce site construction complexity and enable deployment in locations inaccessible to larger reactor systems. Multiple commercial microreactor developers including Oklo Inc., X-energy LLC, and Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation are advancing NRC pre-application review processes that are building regulatory readiness for near-term first commercial deployments.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, due to the United States hosting the most advanced small modular reactor and microreactor development programs, substantial DOE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program funding sustaining commercial developer technology readiness, and NRC advanced reactor licensing engagement that is establishing the global regulatory precedent framework. Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission SMR licensing readiness program and multiple Canadian utility SMR procurement assessments are reinforcing North American market leadership. U.S. defense microreactor procurement programs provide government revenue anchoring for technology developers advancing portable nuclear commercialization.
Over the forecast period, the Europe region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, due to UK SMR program advancing Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd. toward generic design assessment completion, European energy security imperatives following fossil fuel supply disruptions generating political support for nuclear investment, and multiple Eastern European EU member states initiating SMR deployment feasibility programs. Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, and the Netherlands are actively evaluating SMR deployment as components of national energy security and decarbonization strategies. European Commission taxonomy classification of nuclear energy as a transitional sustainable activity is unlocking green finance for SMR project development across EU member states.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Portable Urban Nuclear Solutions Market include Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd., NuScale Power, TerraPower LLC, Westinghouse Electric Company, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Rosatom, China National Nuclear Corporation, Korea Electric Power Corporation, EDF Group, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Holtec International, X-energy LLC, Oklo Inc., Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation, Seaborg Technologies, BWXT Technologies, Fluor Corporation, and Bechtel Corporation.
In March 2026, NuScale Power submitted its updated VOYGR SMR standard design approval application to the NRC incorporating enhanced passive cooling system design modifications addressing previous review findings.
In March 2026, Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd. completed Phase 2 of its UK Generic Design Assessment submission to the Office for Nuclear Regulation achieving regulatory milestone clearance for factory fabrication safety case.
In February 2026, TerraPower LLC broke ground on its Natrium advanced sodium fast reactor demonstration plant in Wyoming marking the first U.S. advanced reactor commercial construction commencement in decades.
In February 2026, Oklo Inc. received U.S. Department of Defense contract funding to develop its Aurora compact fast reactor for forward operating base power supply capability demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.