AI推理驱动储存需求：QLC SSD 成长迫在眉睫

AI 驱动的资料爆炸性成长预计将引发资料中心储存的结构性变革。 HDD 短缺正在加速 QLC SSD 的需求，尤其是大容量产品。儘管存在成本方面的考虑，但 HDD 的缺口不断扩大，促使北美云端服务供应商 (CSP) 开始考虑 QLC SSD 作为冷资料储存的替代方案。虽然供应商产能限制和 CSP 的价格敏感度会导致短期价格谈判，但从长远来看，未解决的 HDD 问题将促使 QLC SSD 需求爆发式成长。

主要亮点

• 需求变化：AI 应用的快速成长正在推动资料的爆炸性成长，显着增加资料中心的储存需求。
• 供应链瓶颈：HDD 供应商保守的产能扩张导致交货时间过长，阻碍了云端服务供应商满足其快速部署需求，并扩大了储存缺口。
• 技术替代：HDD 的短缺正在推动 QLC SSD 成为冷资料储存的替代方案，北美资料中心开始评估其可行性。
• 成本考量：云端服务供应商 (CSP) 根据单位储存成本评估 QLC SSD，但其成本必须在 HDD 的三倍以内才能达到整体成本平衡。
• 供应商策略：SSD 供应商受益于 HDD 订单的转移，而 QLC SSD 容量有限且技术壁垒高，大幅降价难以接受。
• 价格谈判：CSP 坚持价格标准，但 SSD 製造商不愿妥协，导致 QLC SSD 在短期内无法大规模采用。
• 长期趋势：HDD 供应问题难以解决，迫使 CSP 寻求替代方案。

目录

第一章：AI 推理需求成长导致储存产品短缺

第二章：由于 NL HDD 短缺，QLC SSD 明年将大幅成长

• 企业级 SSD 价格预测

第三章：HDD 升级至 QLC SSD 取代 SSD 前仍需应对成本和生产课题。

• HDD 和 SSD 的交货时间、价格和主流容量
• 企业级 SSD：位元需求和 NAND 快闪记忆体市场占有率的成长
• 供应商分布：NAND 快闪记忆体总位供应量和 QLC 产量

TrendForce indicates AI-driven data explosion causes structural changes in data center storage. HDD shortage accelerates QLC SSD demand, especially high-capacity products. Despite cost considerations, the widening HDD gap prompts North American CSPs to evaluate QLC SSD as cold data storage alternative. Supplier capacity constraints and CSP price sensitivity lead to short-term price negotiations, but in the long run, unresolved HDD issues will lead to explosive growth in QLC SSD demand.

Key Highlights:

• Demand Shift: AI applications surge, leading to data explosion and significantly increasing data center storage demand, which traditional HDD supply chains struggle to meet.
• Supply Chain Bottleneck: HDD vendors' conservative capacity expansion leads to extended lead times, failing to meet cloud service providers' rapid deployment needs, widening the storage gap.
• Technology Substitution: HDD shortage promotes QLC SSD as an alternative for cold data storage, with North American data centers beginning to evaluate its feasibility.
• Cost Considerations: CSPs evaluate QLC SSD based on cost per unit storage, which must be controlled within three times that of HDD to achieve overall cost balance.
• Vendor Strategy: SSD vendors benefit from HDD order transfers but are unwilling to significantly lower prices due to limited QLC SSD capacity and high technical barriers.
• Price Negotiation: CSPs adhere to price baselines, while SSD manufacturers are unwilling to compromise, resulting in a failure to adopt QLC SSD on a large scale in the short term.
• Long-Term Trend: HDD supply issues are difficult to resolve, making it necessary for CSPs to find alternatives, and QLC SSD demand is expected to grow explosively next year.

Table of Contents

1. Shortages for Storage Products under Emergence of Demand for AI Inference

2. NL HDD Shortage Will Lead to Significant Increase in QLC SSDs Next Year

• Enterprise SSD Price Projection

3. Challenges Remain in Replacing HDD with QLC SSD with Respect to Cost and Production

• Lead Times/Prices/Mainstream Capacities of HDD & SSD
• Enterprise SSDs - Demand Bit Growth and Corresponding Share in NAND Flash Market Demand
• Distribution by Supplier - Overall NAND Flash Supply Bits and QLC Output