DDR5 供应短缺推高价格；预计到 2026 年利润将超过 HBM3e

儘管最初由于关税和政策变化，需求较为谨慎，但云端运算的扩张和人工智慧投资正在推动记忆体需求和价格上涨，导致 DRAM 供应趋紧。 DDR5 的上涨趋势已成定局，预计其获利能力将超过 HBM3e。厂商的产能分配和定价策略将重塑市场格局。

范例预览

主要亮点：

• 最初，关税和政策变化促使买家加快下单，但终端用户需求依然谨慎。 随着云端运算扩张和人工智慧投资加速，记忆体需求增强，供应趋紧，DRAM价格上涨。
• 伺服器出货量和单系统记忆体密度同步成长，推动了位元需求的显着成长，并导致全年供需缺口扩大。
• 近期合约价格调涨幅度大幅增加，导致部分产品严重短缺和物价大幅上涨。
• DDR5价格持续上涨，利润成长势头强劲；而HBM3e由于竞争和库存压力而走弱，价格差距缩小。 DDR5的获利能力可望超越HBM3e，促使厂商重新审视产能分配与定价策略。

目录

第一章：预计2026年伺服器DRAM需求将成长超过20%，由于CSP需求强劲，供应短缺加剧

• 2025年第四季DRAM合约价格预测（更新前后对比）

  第二章：DDR5价格涨幅预计为0.65美元/Gb，预计2026年获利能力将超过HBM3e

  • DDR5与HBM的平均售价比较

Tariffs and policy changes kept early demand cautious, but cloud expansion and AI investment have lifted memory demand and pricing, tightening DRAM supply. The DDR5 uptrend is established, with profitability likely to surpass HBM3e; vendors' capacity allocation and pricing strategies will reshape the market landscape.

Sample preview

Key Highlights:

• Early on, tariffs and policy shifts prompted buyers to pull in orders while end demand stayed cautious; as cloud expansion and AI investment accelerated, memory demand strengthened, supply tightened, and DRAM pricing moved higher.
• Server shipments and per-system memory density are rising in tandem, driving significant bit-demand growth and extending the supply-demand gap across calendar years.
• Recent contract price increases have been markedly revised upward, with some products facing acute shortages and outsized price gains.
• DDR5's rally is continuing with strengthening profit momentum; HBM3e is weakening under competitive dynamics and inventory pressure, narrowing the price gap. DDR5 profitability is poised to overtake, prompting adjustments in capacity allocation and pricing strategies.

Table of Contents

1. Due to CSPs' Strong Pull-In Momentum, Server DRAM Demand Is Expected to Grow by Over 20% in 2026, Thus Reinforcing Shortage

• Projected DRAM Contract Prices for 4Q25 (Before and After Update)

2. Price Hike for DDR5 Established at US$0.65/Gb; Profitability to Surpass HBM3e in 2026

• ASP between DDR5 and HBM