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伺服器DRAM价格上涨：长期战略与产能争夺战－2025年第四季及以后
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1873720

伺服器DRAM价格上涨：长期战略与产能争夺战－2025年第四季及以后

Server DRAM Price Surge: Long-Term Strategy & Capacity Race - From Q4 2025
出版日期: | 出版商: TrendForce | 英文 6 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2个工作天内

价格
简介目录

由于供应紧张和云端服务供应商的强劲需求，伺服器DRAM价格预计将大幅上涨。为了确保供应，客户正在积极协商长期合约，这促使製造商扩大产能。製造商正将生产重心转向高利润的DDR5。虽然市场供应短缺预计将持续，且大规模新增产能需要数年时间，但製程技术的升级预计将在短期内加速供应。 PC DRAM价格也将上涨，但涨幅相对较小。

范例预览


主要亮点：

  • 伺服器 DRAM 价格大幅上涨：
    • 由于云端服务供应商的强劲需求和製造商供应紧张，伺服器 DRAM 价格大幅上涨，远超过 PC DRAM 价格。
    • 製造商满足客户需求的能力有限，也是造成价格持续上涨的原因之一。
  • 长期供应协议：
    • 云端服务供应商正积极签署长期采购协议，将供应期限延长至未来数年，以确保供应并鼓励製造商投资扩大产能。
    • 客户接受更高的价格，表示他们对云端服务机会充满信心，也显示製造商愿意扩大产能。
  • 製造商的策略转变：
    • 为了提高获利能力，製造商正将生产重点转向高附加价值的DDR5产品，预计每片晶圆的平均售价将超过HBM。
    • 一些製造商已开始将产能从HBM重新分配到DDR5。
  • 产能扩张的挑战：
    • 建造用于大规模生产的新无尘室需要数年时间，这会造成供应瓶颈。
    • 短期内，预计製造商将加快製程升级或略微加快洁净室建设，这将有助于增加位供应。
  • 市场展望：
    • 资料中心投资前景依然强劲，推动伺服器出货量和每台伺服器DRAM容量的成长。
    • 预计整个市场供应短缺的情况将持续，卖方可能仍将占主导地位。

目录

第一章：官方伺服器DRAM合约预估发布，季度价格大幅上涨促使供应商扩大生产

第二章：三星做出积极预估后，2025年第四季伺服器DRAM合约谈判结束。 最新修订的预测显示，伺服器DRAM价格将成长43-48%，远超PC DRAM的涨幅。

  • 伺服器DRAM和PC DRAM价格预测的季度变化

第三章：CSP需求谈判延长至2027年，供应商优先考虑业务扩张

第四章：晶圆价值成为产能受限供应商的价格锚点

  • HBM和DDR5晶圆平均售价
简介目录
Product Code: TRi-0103

Server DRAM prices are projected to surge due driven by tight supply and robust cloud service provider demand. To secure supply, clients are aggressively negotiating long-term agreements, incentivizing manufacturers to expand capacity. Manufacturers are shifting production focus to high-margin DDR5. Market anticipates persistent undersupply, with substantial new capacity taking years to come online, while process upgrades accelerate short-term. PC DRAM also rises, but less significantly.

Sample preview


Key Highlights:

  • Significant Server DRAM Price Increases:
    • Strong cloud service provider demand and tight manufacturer supply are driving a substantial increase in server DRAM prices, significantly surpassing PC DRAM.
    • Manufacturers' limited ability to meet customer needs contributes to continuous price escalation.
  • Long-Term Supply Agreements:
    • Cloud service providers are actively negotiating long-term purchasing agreements extending into future years to secure supply and incentivize manufacturers to expand capacity investment.
    • Client acceptance of price hikes reflects confidence in cloud service opportunities and willingness to stimulate manufacturer expansion.
  • Manufacturer Strategic Shift:
    • To boost profitability, manufacturers are shifting production focus towards high-value DDR5 products, with their average selling price per wafer projected to exceed HBM.
    • Some manufacturers have begun reallocating capacity from HBM to DDR5.
  • Capacity Expansion Challenges:
    • New cleanroom construction requires several years for large-scale production, creating a supply bottleneck.
    • In the short term, manufacturers will accelerate process upgrades or slightly advance cleanroom construction to boost bit supply growth.
  • Market Outlook:
    • Data center investment visibility remains high, with increasing server shipments and DRAM content per server.
    • The overall market is expected to remain seller-dominated with persistent undersupply.

Table of Contents

1. Formal Quotes for Server DRAM Contracts Emerge, and Significant Increases in Projected QoQ Hikes for Transaction Prices Encourage Suppliers to Expand Production

2. Following Samsung's Aggressive Quotes, 4Q25 Server DRAM Contract Negotiations Will Conclude; Latest Revised Projection Puts Server DRAM's Price Hike at 43-48%, Greatly Surpassing PC DRAM's Price Hike

  • Projected QoQ Changes in Server DRAM and PC DRAM Prices

3. Suppliers Now Prioritizing on Expansions as Negotiations for Demand of CSPs Extended to 2027

4. Value of Wafers Set as Pricing Anchor for Suppliers' Products under Restricted Capacity

  • ASP per Wafer of HBM and DDR5