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网路自动化：SON、RIC、SMO（2023 年 10 月）
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1456203

网路自动化：SON、RIC、SMO（2023 年 10 月）

Network Automation - SON, RIC, SMO Report, October 2023
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

价格
简介目录

SON（自组织网路）演算法是3GP在本世纪初定义的，无需人工干预即可自动配置和优化行动网路。 随着网路处理大量流量并随着多代网路的增加而变得更加复杂，SON 演算法正在与机器学习 (ML) 和人工智慧演算法相融合。

本报告调查了集中式SON (C-SON) 软体和服务收入市场，估计了市场规模和预测、供应商的市场占有率，并提供了有关Open RAN、开放? RAN、SD-RAN 的资讯（我们分析了C-SON 模组和用例的演进，用作软体定义 RAN (RAN) 架构中所需的 RAN 智慧控制器 (RIC) 的应用程式。 该报告还追踪了 O-RAN 定义的服务管理和编排 (SMO) 市场，并估计了非即时 RIC rApp 和近实时 RIC xApp 的市场占有率。

目录

摘要

要点

令人惊讶的是，SON 仍然保持优势

  • SON 由 NGMN 于 2008 年定义，并由 3GPP 在 REL.8 中标准化，已经存在十多年，并在 2010 年 LTE 部署开始时变得流行。
    • 早在 2010 年，零接触网路闭环自动化就是 C-SON 的宏伟愿景。
  • 2022年全球SON软体和服务收入将年增1%
    • 预计今年全球 SON 市场将继续以低个位数成长
    • C-SON 销售额从未与行动网路数量成比例成长。
    • 无论有没有 C-SON，LTE 网路都运作良好，5G NSA 网路也是如此
    • 如果所有 LTE 网路都配备 C-SON，全球 C-SON 软体和服务现在将超过 80 亿美元
    • 这段稳定期（2024-2025 年）与 Open vRAN 的激增同时发生
    • C-SON 一直很难推销
    • 因此，在 C-SON 生态系统中营运的公司数量已减少至 10 家。
    • 大多数公司不再投资 SON 用例，而是专注于 RIC
    • 诺基亚在 C-SON 销售市场占有率方面处于领先地位
  • 随着 Open RAN 的出现，SON 用例正在转变为应用程式
    • AT&T 自 2017 年以来一直在推广 ONAP 和 Open RAN 工作。
    • 由于地缘政治因素，Open RAN加速了RIC和SMO的发展。
    • ONF 利用 TIP 和 O-RAN 联盟将 RAN 转换为 SDN。
    • Deutsche Telekom急于尝试 SD-RAN，但仅此而已。
    • 2022 年 4 月，Intel收购了 ONF 开发团队和 Ananki。
    • 2021 年，基于 O-RAN 联盟框架开发了 RIC/SMO 模型。
    • 2023 年 8 月，O-RAN 联盟宣布了 NIC（RIC 的演变）的愿景。
    • 另一方面，Open RAN 网路与 C-SON 配合得很好，预计持续时间比许多人想像的要长。
    • Dish 是唯一一家经营专用 5G Open RAN 网路的公司，并且 Open RAN 与 4G LTE 一起推出。

RIC/SMO 目前处于短暂中断状态

  • C-SON市场发展的历史或将重演
  • 5G Open RAN 中嵌入的 RIC 很复杂且不支援 PRIME TIME
    • 与其前身 SON 一样，RIC 使用人工智慧和机器学习，并需要将指令传回 RAN。
    • 此外，xApp 训练需要产生大量 RAN 场景来重现真实事件。
    • 因此，我们的模型将 RIC 预测移至未来一年。
    • 短暂休息后，RIC 认真上涨
    • 近乎即时的 RIC 市场将解锁先前由 RAN 供应商独立管理的 D-SON 用例。
    • 节能与交通导引：两个最重要的用例
    • CSP 对近实时 RIC 有许多疑问。
    • 到 2028 年，预计 95% 的 C-SON 销售和服务将以非 RT RIC rApp 的形式出现。
  • CSPS 不将 SMO 与 Open RAN 绑定，并且需要在网路内运作的所有无线电上使用 SMO。
    • 因此，我们的模型将 SMO 预测调整了一年，但仍然比 RIC 早一年开始。
    • 如果将非 Open RAN SMO 机会加入预测中，到 2028 年市场规模将至少翻倍。
    • 经过一段等待期，SMO 市场出现了快速扩张的迹象 - 这代表着最大的机会。
  • 与此同时，一个庞大的 RIC/SMO 生态系统正在建构中。
    • 传统 RAN 供应商将积极参与 RIC 开发。
    • dcloud 提供者也是如此。
简介目录

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence algorithms. This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN, and software defined RAN (SD-RAN) architectures. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

About the author:

Stephane Teral , Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

Stephane founded TERAL RESEARCH in January 2023 after 2 years as a Chief Analyst at LightCounting, which he joined in May 2020, after serving as a Technology Fellow at IHS Markit where he was also rewarded with the 2016 Market Research Excellence Award. Previously, he spent 8 years as a principal analyst at Infonetics Research after starting his analyst career at RHK, where he developed the European optical coverage and helped carriers migrate from PSTN to next-generation networks. Prior to RHK, he was an R&D engineer and project manager with Alcatel where he deployed the CATV optical networks that allowed the 1992 Olympics and the grand opening of Euro Disney to be televised using fiber optics for the first time. Stephane is a McGowan Scholar at the McLaren School of Business of the University of San Francisco where he received his MBA with an emphasis in telecommuni

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

IT'S AMAZING, THE SON KEEPS SHINING!

  • DEFINED BY THE NGMN IN 2008 AND STANDARDIZED BY THE 3GPP IN REL.8, SON HAS BEEN AROUND FOR OVER A DECADE AND TOOK OFF WHEN LTE ROLLOUTS STARTED IN 2010
    • Already in 2010, zero touch network closed-loop automation was the C-SON grand vision
  • IN 2022, GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE GREW 1% YOY
    • This year, we forecast the global SON market to keep growing at low single digits
    • C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
    • With or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
    • If every single LTE network was equipped with a C-SON, we believe global C-SON software and services would be more than $8B at this point
    • This 2024-2025 plateau coincides with the open vRAN uptake
    • C-SON has always been a tough sell
    • As a result, the C-SON ecosystem has shrunk to 10 active players
    • Most players are no longer investing in SON use cases, they focus on RIC
    • Our estimates indicate Nokia leads C-SON sales market shares
  • WITH THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN RAN, SON USE CASES ARE MORPHING INTO APPS
    • Since 2017, AT&T has been driving the ONAP and open RAN efforts
    • Fueled by geopolitics, open RAN accelerated the development of the RIC and the SMO
    • Leveraging the TIP and the O-RAN Alliance, the ONF SDN'ized the RAN
    • Deutsche Telekom rushed to trial SD-RAN but that was it!
    • In April 2022, Intel acquired the ONF development team and Ananki
    • in 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
    • In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
    • In the meantime, open RAN networks run fine with C-SON, which is here to stay longer than many think
    • Only Dish operates a 5G-only open RAN footprint, open RAN started in 4G LTE!

FOR NOW, THE RIC AND THE SMO REMAIN STUCK IN A LULL

  • The C-SON market development history may repeat itself
  • BAKED IN 5G OPEN RAN, RIC IS COMPLEX AND NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME
    • Like its SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
    • In addition, the xApp training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
    • Consequently, our model shifted our RIC forecast 1 year out
    • After the lull, the RIC takes off for good
    • The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors
    • Energy saving and traffic steering are the top 2 use cases
    • CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
    • In 2028, we expect 95% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
  • CSPS ARE NOT TYING SMO TO OPEN RAN, THEY NEED IT FOR ALL RADIOS OPERATING IN THEIR NETWORK
    • Consequently, our model shifted our SMO forecast by 1 year but it will start 1 year earlier than RIC
    • Adding the non-open RAN SMO opportunity to our forecast will at least double the size of the market by 2028
    • After the wait, the SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity
  • MEANWHILE, A HUGE RIC/SMO ECOSYSTEM IS BUILDING UP, SOME WON'T MAKE IT!
    • Traditional RAN vendors have become actively engaged in RIC developments...
    • so are dcloud providers