全球无线基础设施市场（2023 年第四季/2023 财年）：2024 年 2 月

本报告分析了全球无线基础设施市场的最新发展（截至2023年第三季），涵盖2G、3G、4G和5G无线接取网路（RAN）和核心网路节点。然后，我们分析了每个地区（北美、中东/非洲、亚太地区、加勒比海/拉丁美洲）的2G/3G/4G/5G RAN（包括开放vRAN）和核心网路（EPC、vEPC、5GC）的过往数据。历史数据包括 30 多家无线基础设施供应商的销售数据，其中包括那些在调查时共享机密销售数据的供应商。市场预测基于无线基础设施供应商销售的相关模型、对过去 20 年服务供应商网路部署模式的分析以及更新和扩展计划。

目录

概述

重点：2023 年将是无线撤资週期的第二年，2024 年将是第三年

儘管 2023 年第四季表现强劲，但全年将下降 9%。

• 5G Core在2023年第四季和2023年都达到顶峰，5G RAN也表现良好
• 儘管部署步伐缓慢，但5G前景依然光明
  • LTE-A 和 VoLTE 更新潜力仍处于令人印象深刻的水平
  • 对 IMS 的需求比以往任何时候都更大，但语音有什么问题呢？
  • 新EPC需求正在消失，但产能持续扩大
• Huawei将在2023年第四季和2023财年保持领先地位，中兴通讯将增加占有率
  • 在RAN市占率方面，Huawei和Ericsson不分上下，其次是Nokia。
• 在核心网路方面，2023年第四季5G核心网路销售的大部分将再次来自中国，Huawei・ZTE合计占69%的市场。
  • 向 5G SA 过渡的长期延迟继续阻碍 5G 核心销售。
  • Ericsson：报告与现实有巨大脱节
  • 4G核心：Huawei将在2023年保持第一的位置，Ericsson将在2023年第四季占据第一。
  • 取得/维持 EPC/vEPC 市占率是一项艰难的平衡行为。
• 正如预测，高峰已经过去，2023年将是撤资週期的第二年，2024年将是第三年。

无线基础设施市场长期预测：预期呈下降趋势

• 随着一些国家对中国供应商的排斥，4G和5G设备的二手市场将变得更加活跃并压倒其他市场——情况进一步恶化
  • 随着德国准备退役Huawei的5G设备，2024年至2025年，新一轮的二手设备将涌入二手市场。
• 中断一段时间后，Open RAN 将在今年正式启动
  • 讽刺的是，地缘政治因素既推动了Ericsson・Nokia・Samsung领导的 Open RAN 生态系统，也推动了传统 5G RAN 的部署。
• 亚太地区拥有全球最大的无线网络，并将继续成为最大的市场。
• 北美仍是仅次于亚太地区的全球第二大无线基础设施市场。
• 欧洲、中东和非洲 (EMEA) 的 5G 市场将持续下滑，直至 2029 年。
• 加勒比海和拉丁美洲 (CALA) 正在復苏，预计未来将会成长。

This report analyzes the 3Q23 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2022, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2028 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting/TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

About the author:

Stephane Teral , Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

Stephane founded TERAL RESEARCH in January 2023 after 2 years as a Chief Analyst at LightCounting, which he joined in May 2020, after serving as a Technology Fellow at IHS Markit where he was also rewarded with the 2016 Market Research Excellence Award. Previously, he spent 8 years as a principal analyst at Infonetics Research after starting his analyst career at RHK, where he developed the European optical coverage and helped carriers migrate from PSTN to next-generation networks. Prior to RHK, he was an R&D engineer and project manager with Alcatel where he deployed the CATV optical networks that allowed the 1992 Olympics and the grand opening of Euro Disney to be televised using fiber optics for the first time. Stephane is a McGowan Scholar at the McLaren School of Business of the University of San Francisco where he received his MBA with an emphasis in telecommuni

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 2023 WAS THE SECOND YEAR OF WIRELESS DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2024 WILL BE THE THIRD

DESPITE A STRONG 4Q23, THE FULL YEAR IS 9% DOWN

• 5G CORE WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF BOTH 4Q23 AND 2023, 5G RAN WAS GOOD TOO
• EVEN WITH A SLOWER PACE OF ROLLOUTS, 5G REMAINS THE BRIGHT SPOT
  • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
  • The need for IMS has never been greater, what's wrong with voice?
  • The need for new EPC is vanishing but capacity expansion continues
• HUAWEI STAYS #1 FOR BOTH 4Q23 AND FY23, ZTE GAINES SHARES
  • For RAN market share, Huawei and Ericsson stay neck and neck, followed by Nokia
• IN CORE NETWORKS, THE BULK OF 5G CORE SALES AGAIN CAME FROM CHINA IN 4Q23: HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 69% MARKET SHARE
  • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA continues to hinder 5G core sales
  • There is a huge disconnect between what Ericsson reports and the reality
  • In 4G core, Huawei maintained its lead for FY23, Ericsson is #1 in 4Q23
  • Gaining or keeping market share in the EPC/vEPC market is a tough balancing act
• AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK AND 2023 WAS THE SECOND YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2024 WILL BE THE THIRD YEAR

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A DECLINING TREND...

• FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS BANNED IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
  • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market sometime in 2024-2025
• AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
  • Ironically, geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
• HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
• NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET AFTER ASIA PACIFIC
• EMEA'S 5G WILL DECLINE THROUGH 2029
• AND CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD