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开放式 vRAN 全球市场分析（2024 年 3 月）
市场调查报告书
商品编码
1468728

开放式 vRAN 全球市场分析（2024 年 3 月）

Open vRAN Market Report, March 2024
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 请询问到货日

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简介目录

本报告深入探讨了无线存取网路(RAN) 虚拟化和去中心化，从基本的RAN 功能虚拟化(vRAN) 到Open RAN 等新的开放架构- 传统供应商我们正在分析各种想法，以减少对专用 RAN 设备，从 TIP Initiative 到遵循 O-RAN 联盟规范。 vRAN细分资料是根据现有RAN市场规模及其预测推断的，依地区分为2G/3G/4G和5G、vCU/vDU和RU，以及室内DAS替代需求的可能性。 本报告涵盖了广泛且新兴的供应商生态系统。 最后，我们称这个市场为Open vRAN，因为Open RAN 95%以上都是vRAN。

目录

分析概述

要点

Open RAN/vRAN 市场年成长率 (YoY) 保持稳定（2023 年）

  • 虽然试验、验证和认证工作不断扩大，但商业部署仍然停滞不前。
    • 事实证明，焦点已从 Open RAN 转向 5G SA
  • Dish 和 Rakuten Mobile 端：Rakuten Symphony 管道并未实现，但 1&1 最终实现了
  • 日本希望向世界展示 "开放 RAN/vRAN 岛" 是什么样的
    • 日本欢迎Fujitsu和 NEC 加入 Open RAN/vRAN 领导委员会
    • ...然而，2023 年，Samsung迎头赶上并取代了Fujitsu的位置。
    • Samsung和Fujitsu是 RU、Rakuten Symphony 和 Mavenir 领先 CU/DU 的顶级供应商

市场低迷将再持续一年，2025年将是突破之年：你准备好起飞了吗？

  • 2024 年第一季：继 2023 年第四季的强劲表现之后，许多大型 Open RAN 专案将陆续推出。
  • AT&T 部署：不会在 2024 年第四季前开始
  • 2025 年：全球转型的一年
    • 开放式 vRAN 在全球传统 RAN 销售的渗透率：从 2024 年的 4.6% 到 2029 年的 29%
    • 亚太地区目前是全球最大的开放 vRAN 市场，但美国正在经历重大觉醒。
    • 在投资 Open RAN 的国家中，美国的目标是占国际主导地位
    • 因此，2025 年 RAN 在北美的销售渗透率将达到 20%，到 2029 年将达到 58%
    • 几乎所有商业 Open RAN 网路都将在软体中运行 RAN 功能
    • vRAN 和 Open RAN：两种不同的配置
    • Dish 和 Rakuten Mobile 将云端 RAN 推向黄金时段
    • 正如 NTT Docomo 向世界展示的那样，Open RAN 不必虚拟化

虽然开放 vRAN 復兴开始，但生态系统的可持续性面临压力

  • 虽然老问题依然存在，但反对派的主张依然坚定不移
  • 同时，庞大的 Open RAN 生态系统不断发展、整合和重建。
    • 早期的 Open RAN 采用者采用了多供应商方法…
    • …目前正受到这场文艺復兴的棕地采用者和建筑师的攻击
    • 在这个 5G 已过巅峰的时代，一级 CSP 被Ericsson和Nokia庞大的 5G 足迹所锁定
    • 现阶段，主要的 1 级 CSP 正在尝试采取与 AT&T 相同的做法，并严重依赖单一主要供应商进行开放式 vRAN 部署。
    • 因此，整合和重组正在进行中。
    • 日本的 Open RAN 生态系统也不例外。
    • OREX：创建 Rakuten Symphony 的克隆
  • 以上都是华为被排除的直接结果
    • 在世界上大多数国家，禁止中国供应商的使命已经完成…
    • ……国际合作正值高峰
    • 这促使了区域/国家层面的一系列措施。

开放式 vRAN：一般室内使用案例的有力候选者，特别是 DAS 的替代品

  • 目前基于 C-RAN 的 DAS 架构为 Open vRAN 升级提供了许多机会。
    • 到 2026 年，室内 Open vRAN/Open DAS 市场将超过室内 DAS
    • 到目前为止，中立主机功能保护了 DAS 市场，但 Open vRAN 可能会摧毁它
    • 私人无线网路目前仍是开放式 vRAN 的利基市场，但占大型企业部署的 90%
    • 传统 RAN
    • 但随着 DAS 替代品转移到较小的地点，Open vRAN 最终将渗透到中小企业领域
    • 室内 5G 覆盖：vRAN 背后的驱动力
    • JMA Wireless 在这个 DAS 储存桶中是独一无二的
简介目录

This report takes a deep dive into the virtualization and disaggregation of radio access networks and analyzes the various schools of thoughts ranging from basic virtualization of RAN functions (vRAN) to new open architectures such as open RAN, following the TIP initiative and the O-RAN Alliance specifications, designed to cut the dependency on proprietary RAN equipment supplied by the traditional vendors. The vRAN segment is taken from our existing RAN size and forecasts and broken down by 2G/3G/4G versus 5G, as well as by vCU/vDU and RU for each region, and also looks at the potential for indoor DAS replacement. The report covers a wide emerging ecosystem of vendors. Lastly, as more than 95% of open RAN deployments are vRAN, we call this market open vRAN.

About the Author

Stephane Teral, Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

IN 2023, THE OPEN RAN/VRAN MARKET STAYED FLAT YOY

  • WHILE TRIALS, TESTING AND CERTIFICATION EFFORTS KEEP SWELLING, COMMERCIAL ROLLOUTS HAVE PAUSED
    • We found that the focus shifted from open RAN to 5G SA
  • DONE WITH DISH AND RAKUTEN MOBILE; RAKUTEN SYMPHONY'S PIPELINE DID NOT MATERIALIZE BUT 1&1 FINALLY DELIVERED!
  • JAPAN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WORLD WHAT AN OPEN RAN/VRAN ISLAND LOOKS LIKE
    • Japan has propelled Fujitsu and NEC to the open RAN/vRAN leadership board...
    • ...But in 2023, Samsung caught up and dethroned Fujitsu
    • Samsung and Fujitsu are the top RU suppliers while Rakuten Symphony and Mavenir lead CU/DU

THE MARKET LULL EXTENDS FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND 2025 WILL BE THE TRIGGER YEAR, READY FOR TAKEOFF?

  • 1Q24 FOLLOWS A STRONG 4Q23 FULL OF SUBSTANTIAL OPEN RAN PROJECTS
  • WE DO NOT EXPECT AT&T ROLLOUT TO KICK IN BEFORE 4Q24
  • 2025 WILL BE THE GLOBAL SWITCH YEAR
    • The open vRAN penetration of the global traditional RAN sales is expected to hit 29% in 2029, up from 4.6% in 2024
    • So far, Asia Pacific is the world's largest open vRAN market but the U.S. is awakening in a big way
    • Among the countries ploughing money into open RAN, the U.S. is pushing for gLobal dominance
    • Consequently, North America is poised to hit the 20% RAN sales penetration bar in 2025 and reach 58% by 2029
    • We believe nearly all commercial open RAN networks will be running RAN functions on software
    • vRAN and open RAN are 2 different configurations
    • DISH and Rakuten Mobile bring cloud RAN to prime time
    • As NTT docomo showed the world, an open RAN does not need to be virtual

WHILE THE OPEN VRAN RENAISSANCE BEGINS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE

  • AS SOME OLD CHALLENGES REMAIN, THE NAYSAYERS STICK TO THEIR GUNS
  • IN THE MEANTIME, A VAST OPEN RAN ECOSYSTEM KEEPS DEVELOPING, CONSOLIDATING AND RESTRUCTURING
    • The early greenfield open RAN adopters embraced the multi-vendor approach...
    • ...which is now under attack by the brownfield adopters and actors of this renaissance
    • In this post 5G peak era, Tier 1 CSPs are locked in with abundant 5G footprints from Ericsson and Nokia
    • At this stage, large Tier 1 CSPs seem inclined to do what AT&T is doing and lean heavily on a single big supplier for their open vRAN deployments
    • Consequently, consolidation and restructuring are chugging along
    • Lastly, the Japanese open RAN ecosystem is not immune either
    • OREX: the creation of a Rakuten Symphony clone
  • ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE HUAWEI BAN
    • For most of the world, the mission to ban the Chinese vendors is accomplished...
    • ...And international cooperation is at its best
    • This also drove the creation of a flurry of regional and national initiatives

OPEN VRAN IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR INDOOR USE CASES IN GENERAL AND AS A DAS REPLACEMENT IN PARTICULAR

  • CURRENT C-RAN-BASED DAS ARCHITECTURES OFFER PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPEN VRAN UPGRADES
    • In 2026, the indoor open vRAN/open DAS market will surpass indoor DAS
    • The neutral host capability has been protecting the DAS market so far but open vRAN can kill it all together
    • Private wireless networks remain an open vRAN niche for now but 90% of large enterprise installations
    • traditional RAN
    • However, as DAS replacement shifts to smaller venues, open vRAN will eventually penetrate the SME space at some point
    • Indoor 5G coverage is the vRAN driving force
    • In this DAS bucket, JMA Wireless is unique